Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Crystal Memories]

havent models been updated since 1993? if so they would have been updated by scientists with knowledge of our changing environment so Im not sure I agree. I think what has occured are more extreme events and they are becoming more frequent and that is where on occasions we are left in the dark......alittle

But it doesn't matter when they was upgraded as there is no stable data for them to work from so how can they predict anything long term right? & as we have seen time & time again news headlines & weather forecasters saying this is going to be a really bad year or the summer is going to be boiling hot lol it's all just guess work which a 2 year old could do ( long weather forecasting I am not on about real time forecasting so as not to upset fellow members )

[IDO]

The 240 chart is not in anyway a bad chart though as the evolution from that would likely be northerly / Greenland high followed by easterly. This would sit with a good few GFS ensembles also. As others have said some poor and misleading analysis in this thread tonight. People are letting short term disappointment and the Dec debacle colour their thinking. Ian F warned of this very situation the other night and if he's reading this thread tonight he must feel like banging his head against a brick wall.

I know I quoted your post but this isn't aimed at anyone in particular, but its a shame as this thread has been very good of late and it would a shame for people to start going ott now.

Jason

Your right its not bad on the grand scheme of things. Plenty of the UK's favourite word there "potential", however its 10 days into an SSW (at T240) and we have +4 uppers in the south. I would have thought that is about as bad as we could forecast upper temps, bearing in mind the strat forecast? It would be good to see some cold/snow before the PV starts to reform which I believe ECM has been forecasting (after T300 according to the Strat thread).

Of course anything after T120 is pure speculation, but the model output is relatively poor, so calling it so should not be criticised. The ensembles may reveal more though as the 0z had good support, have the members also flipped?

Edited January 6, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[snowmadchrisuk]

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is going to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when every other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

THe models wont change back they never do. - just like December it was game over once the models got a grip of the angle of the atlantic, once again now we reach 120 which is close to the strength of the model accuracy we see that things arent going to work in our favour-

Am I shouting, am I mad/ cussing- are my posts flaming other people- no. commenting on the models.

Even as a person who think's we will get the Cold around Mid month (although not in the next 7 days) I think your posts are perfectly reasoned as is always .... Just call it how you see it , You always have mate ..

[nick sussex]

They were only a kick in the teeth if you were expecting the ECM to carry on with it's previous output and the other models to support it. I wasn't.

Cross model agreement is vital when you are looking for cold spells between T96 and T168, we haven't had it yet. But if we compare the 'big 3' models at days 6 & 7, there are HUGE differences, whereas with many previous failures, the models have all picked on something, a typical scupperer, and we can see how it is going to fail.

I can't see any easy route to sustainable heights to the North of the UK from any of the output tonight, but the uncertainty means that it's very much more runs needed.

Thats a really good point Ian regarding previous failures.

Normally its the dreaded shortwave and then game over with no way back. In this instance its hard to say which model is right or even close to that within 144hrs, and even if one of the three is right we still don't really know how things could evolve later.

[Harsh Climate]

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is going to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when every other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

THe models wont change back they never do. - just like December it was game over once the models got a grip of the angle of the atlantic, once again now we reach 120 which is close to the strength of the model accuracy we see that things arent going to work in our favour-

Am I shouting, am I mad/ cussing- are my posts flaming other people- no. commenting on the models.

Again some very poor points from probably the most knowledgable poster in here, I'm truly perplexed!

1. To say there's zero chance of snow from looking at the latest charts is absolutley ridiculus. Each model shows a chance at the moment whether it's 10% or 80%+ rather than looking at that finer detail we must be looking at snoptical trends, so fa so good.

2.Yes the models could very well change back from the less good charts we have just seen, to the previous good ones. Numorous times in the 2009/2010 winter did we have all the models trending towards a mild zonal flow, only for them to quickly revert back time and time again to ian browns horror!

Edited January 6, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Ian Brown]

Lets be honest here for the 11th/12th Jan only a few runs have suggested a cold, convective E,ly. Now obviously some runs have been better i.e 0Z ECM but looking at the differences between the GFS/UKMO/ECM you cannot assume these charts aren't subject to change. We could well see a change to a more colder E,ly flow at this timeframe because +120/144 is always subject to change. When the model output becomes consistent is from +72. This is why many of us say getting an E,ly at +72 is the holy grail.

So my view hasn't really changed. A possible E,ly next weekend although what type of E,lys is uncertain, followed by a brief less cold period which could then be replaced by a N/NE,ly as blocking develops NW.

Lets not make the mistake of assuming the less promising runs are right because of past disappointments. This is flawed meteorologically speaking. Who knows maybe recent ECM runs have been too extreme but maybe tonights is the opposite. I shall await more output before I make knee jerk statements and spit my dummy out of the pram.

Dave, you have to use past disappointments as a basis for assessing our chances - it not really logical but when you are located where the UK is, you have to look at what can go wrong and therefore probably will - in respect of high latitude blocking.

The ultimate cold spell of recent times is late Nov/Dec 2010, different solutions offered by the NWP at times, but pretty much rock solidity that high latitude blocking would occur together with bullish confidence from the METO.

There is nothing like that for what we are looking at right now.

[weather eater]

They were only a kick in the teeth if you were expecting the ECM to carry on with it's previous output and the other models to support it. I wasn't.

Cross model agreement is vital when you are looking for cold spells between T96 and T168, we haven't had it yet. But if we compare the 'big 3' models at days 6 & 7, there are HUGE differences, whereas with many previous failures, the models have all picked on something, a typical scupperer, and we can see how it is going to fail.

I can't see any easy route to sustainable heights to the North of the UK from any of the output tonight, but the uncertainty means that it's very much more runs needed.

Big differences way before days 6 and 7 Ian, but I agree it’s difficult to set any store in any evolution without cross model agreement, however those uncertainties’ can also mean that just maybe we will see alternatives ways to get those sustained heights over the next couple of days.

[Stu_London]

Steve M - I think based on the model output tonight, most of your comments make a lot of sense. You are one of the most knowledgable model watchers that post regularly on the boards and I for one would rather have your reasoned views, rather than perhaps a rainbow chasing type post where you grab hold of one of the more outlandish ensembles and write a gushy (but still enjoyable to read) analysis of that, just because it's what you want to see happen.

Personally, I think that FI is currently very close and that there could be significant changes in the 24-48 hour time and for that reason, I won't completely write off a severe spell in the 7-10 day timeframe, however I would tend to lean towards your analysis that a chilly or 'faux cold' spell is the best we might expect until we see at least one more pattern change.

[ChartViewer]

Thats a really good point Ian regarding previous failures.

Normally its the dreaded shortwave and then game over with no way back. In this instance its hard to say which model is right or even close to that within 144hrs, and even if one of the three is right we still don't really know how things could evolve later.

Nick actually Ian needs to expand on why he thinks we have had previous failures...Sorry Ian but show me a consistancy of failure and ill say ok but i suspect every failure was different in meteo terms.....

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Latest from Chris Fawkes...offers a glimmer of light. Its cheered me up a bit anyway lol

Chris Fawkesâ€@_chrisfawkes

Midday ec run is different for next weekend - not cold. Highlights uncertainty but looks weird bet charts don't look like that next w/end

[Whereisthesnow?]

I never post in here - purely an observer and learning a great deal about how to analyse models from others who obviously spend a great deal more time on this subject then I do. I always keep in mind the definition of "forecast" which is to estimate and calculate an event. You never truly know what's going to happen. There are always going to be curveballs and variables to consider. Anyway - keep up the good work!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just you watch the 18z GFS throw out a stonker of a run now.....I can just see it happening and we'll all be non the wiser into tomorrow's runs

[Long haul to mild]

Tweet from Chris Fawkes: "Midday ec run is different for next weekend - not cold. Highlights uncertainty but looks weird bet charts don't look like that next w/end"

Says it all really. (EDIT: Grimsby Snow Lover beat me to it!)

Thanks to those who are trying to make sense out of the model output today; it's a thankless task I know, but then again so is trawling through pages of "waaah, it's not going to snow, winter is over" posts along with "haha, yah boo, told you so" ones!

Edited January 6, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[bluearmy]

Please can we get our heads around this ssw data thing. Of course, real tme data is better than forecast data but thats the same for any variable fed into the model. The model was forecasting the sudden rise in temp so it carrys on from the point when the temps rises as it has done for the past umpteen days modelling.Just because the rise in temps was in the simulated run and now its fed in as starting data shouldnt make any difference.

The only relevant point is that the propogation and dynamics in the strat following the warming are very complex and the models have less layers in the strat than the trop. Therefore, the closer we get to ssw and then beyond, we would hope the models will handle any propogation better. The changes seen in the modelling of heights over the pole in the past 36 hours should be enough evidence of the possible short term changes in nuance we may see.

I expect the 12z ecm will sit either in a group of less cold members or in the upper reaches of the general grouping. Its not so strange for a whole run to be skewed to the op solution. The undercut at the end of the week is far from clear re track and strength. The behaviour of the scandi ridge and movement of the trough around it are also unclear. The only consistent thing from todays runs is inconsistency.

[Ian Brown]

Enlighten me please Ian

For example, the late November episode, where the shortwave development off Southern Greenland was first picked by the ECM and then cottoned on to by the rest of the NWP. No North Easterly.

Then, the easterly failure, the GFS toyed with and then eventually, developed the Norwegian shotwave that would scupper the block that could have delivered the easterly. All the rest of the NWP quickly backed his and the subsequent strong jet streak that brought the Atlantic back.

Here, we don't have a scupperer because we don't what is going to happen. There is nothing concrete to go wrong because the models are such a mess. That's my point. Steve M says the 'models never go back' and he is right when a DEFINITE scupperer is picked up.

[ANYWEATHER]

Really not sure where this thread is going. ! Looks to me we will see a dramatic cool down by the weekend...Let nature do the rest!!!

[weathersupremacy]

What ever happens this winter - cold, mild, snow, rain or anything else I think we will all be that bit wiser and smarter in the end and ready for this November and December's trip to model asylum.

I'm still thinking 12Z for Monday and Tuesday will be the highly interesting ones. We shall see...

[UV-RAY]

Just you watch the 18z GFS throw out a stonker of a run now.....I can just see it happening and we'll all be non the wiser into tomorrow's runs

Thats what I implied earlier in a humorous sort of way, Lancashire Northants excluded.

I still feel we are chasing a phantom cold spell within the next 7-10 days, it's going to be a slow burner with many ups and downs.

[john mac]

I think at this point everyone needs to calm down, we really need to learn to stop taking the models at face value, they are going to too and froe over the coming days as the new pattern hasn't even set up yet. There are big differences in the 120-168hrs timeframe so there is all up play for. We need to be patient, the pub run will probably throw out a belter!!

[Met4Cast]

I absolutely love how when Steve Murr is gunning for cold everyone on this forum suddenly become his best friends, the second he says anything different hes your biggest enemy, truly amazing.

Anyone saying that the charts look good need to have another look, whilst they're not mild, wet and zonal there's nothing to suggest a sustained period of cold, either. SSW or no SSW, too much weight is being placed on it's ability to produce and people need to realise it does not guarantee cold for the UK.

The ECM taking a step towards the UKMO and GFS is NOT a good sign. Yes we're going to see a spell of colder weather with perhaps a risk of snow, but certainly nothing too prolonged on tonights outputs, maybe they'll all swing back tomorrow, who knows.

[Tim Bland]

Until yesterday it looked like we were going to have to wait until mid next week to see the real cold set in and that is what we are back to tonight. Look how cold Europe and our north is at the end of the ECM. With heights rising into Greenland we would probably see a northerly followed by easterly and there would be some serious cold to tap into. Next weekend was always a bonus and people shouldn't be downhearted because as the GFS and other models show there are plenty of second and third chances on this occasion

[Polar Bear]

I rarely post here, I know nothing compared to the more experienced contributors and I rely on their balanced reading of the charts to inform & teach me

Having skulked on the model thread for the last 3 years I have to say that I find Steve Murr one of the most experienced and (generally) correct contributors on Netweather. He never throws his toys out of his pram, sulks or is rude to eejits who think that a few weeks of looking at charts makes them the next great weather forecaster.

Some of you need to get a grip! It's only weather, it changes. Get over it! It was only a few weeks ago that a few know it alls almost forced off an actual real weatherman with loads of meteorological experience, all because some of you have read a couple of threads and think that you are obviously educated enough to forecast.

And breathe...

Mods feel free to delete, I had to post as I was getting irate and I am not very good at keeping my mouth shut, especially when the more experienced people who have taught me alot are getting slated on a regular basis.

.

DD hear hear. Am with you. I like to read the general discussion on what people interpret the models to be saying. That was one of the reason I joined the threads .. To learn . Not though to learn about who thinks of who.

Mods please delete my post if think it should.

Now I'd like to go back and hopefully learn and read something about the ECM..

[ChartViewer]

For example, the late November episode, where the shortwave development off Southern Greenland was first picked by the ECM and then cottoned on to by the rest of the NWP. No North Easterly.

Then, the easterly failure, the GFS toyed with and then eventually, developed the Norwegian shotwave that would scupper the block that could have delivered the easterly. All the rest of the NWP quickly backed his and the subsequent strong jet streak that brought the Atlantic back.

Here, we don't have a scupperer because we don't what is going to happen. There is nothing concrete to go wrong because the models are such a mess. That's my point. Steve M says the 'models never go back' and he is right when a DEFINITE scupperer is picked up.

Accepted the December failure was something HIGHER UP or a shortwave who knows...However this period has NOT failed yet so lets have an un blinkered view, could go very cold...will go colder...accepted?...Snow who knows?

As for previous disapointments....Again im interested why you think they happened and if there was one consistent theme....

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Taken from a tweet from Matt Hugo. Things certainly don't look mild for northern Britain if this graph is proved accurate.

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=250&y=40&ext=1&run=12&runpara=0

[Thundery wintry showers]

Nick actually Ian needs to expand on why he thinks we have had previous failures...Sorry Ian but show me a consistancy of failure and ill say ok but i suspect every failure was different in meteo terms.....

Many cold spells have failed due to, for example, the models' tendency to overdo heights between Greenland and the mid-Atlantic and underestimate cyclogenesis around Iceland, resulting in overdoing the length and intensity of northerly outbreaks. There have been countless past examples where the models have suggested a few days of northerly winds, troughs and snow showers getting a fair way inland, only for it to downgrade to a 36-hour northerly "toppler" with wintry showers confined to the usual coastal areas. It is often possible to spot the warning signals, e.g. by noting a gap between the mid-Atlantic and Greenland highs at T+120 prior to the initiation of the northerly and suspiciously low heights. With easterlies, the most common "spoiler" is a northern arm of the jet stream causing high pressure over Scandinavia to sink southwards rather than ridge westwards to the north of the British Isles.

The December 2012 failure was relatively unusual as the models overestimated the strength of the link-up between highs over Siberia and Iceland, and as a result shortwaves filled in the gap between the two highs and the Icelandic high settled over the British Isles for a few days. As a result it caught even the most seasoned pros out.

I have to agree with Ian Brown about the confusing picture we currently have- no definitive "spoiler" but also no definitive route into a generally cold snowy spell, although I think that if we can get heights establishing over Greenland/Iceland (as keeps happening near the tail end of ECMWF runs) then we will be well on our way towards one.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers