Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Cheshire Freeze]

Even the BOM has now backtracked to A westerly flow...

Once again its looking same ol same ol for the UK...

S

Even the BOM may get there eventually Steve

Nogaps also good longer term...

If the ECM sticks to its guns, IF, how many times have you known it be wrong at the 96-120 hrs timeframe? I could count the instances on one hand probably. I've seen the GFS wrong inside 72 hrs on a myriad of ocassions.

[ChartViewer]

Short term pain possible long term gain?

BOM168

T180

ECM96

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[MR EXTREMES]

Some interesting news from NOAA.

This is in relation to the shortwave which ejects out of the USA and heads slowly east. The ECM 00hrs took this more towards Greenland, the GFS ejects this out further south into the Atlantic.

This becomes a key component of how the ECM develops its later output.

The preference was a non GFS blend.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED NOTABLY SHARPER WITH THE

SECOND SHRTWV TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE

GRT LAKES TUE/WED WITH A SFC LOW TRACK SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES UPSTREAM WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PAC

LONG WAVE TROF AIMING FOR THE WEST COAST TUE/WED...THERE IS SOME

POTENTIAL THAT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHRTWV TROF COULD IMPACT THE UPR

MIDWEST/GRT LAKES LATE TUE/WED AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. THE ENSEMBLE

GUIDANCE THOUGH DOES NOT YET SUPPORT THAT. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN

AWAY FROM THE GFS WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED CONFIDENCE.

This may change of course depending on the latest ECM run but for now the GFS is an outlier solution.

nice to see your noaa post back and as i expected gfs is on a mission to get it right but the problem is its goes against every other model.

but its been a winter were anything coming out of the eastern seaboard has been a bugger so maybe the gfs is right still loads of jan left and feb and im confident back ground signals have not settled this is why its difficult modelling period right now.

[AWD]

Mmmm. Differences on this ECM for 11th Jan.

0z had a deeper depression on the eastern seaboard;

Compared to the 12z for the same day;

EDIT: ECM at T120 isn't what people want. I'm leaving the thread! :p

Edited January 6, 2013 by AWD

[SMU]

ECM 96 moves towards the UKMO et al-

Its rapidly looking as though phase 1 wont even launch....-- lets hope theres a phase 2 behind it....-

S

[Met4Cast]

Ah well, roll on summer

[IDO]

Oh well back to the drawing board, ECM moves towards GFS, no surprise there.

[Buzz]

Has no one listened to what Ian Ferguson posted the other day re models getting to grip with SSW, there are going to be more ups and downs than a hoars draws before we know which way this one is going.

I did re-post a link to that a few times but it appeared to be falling on deaf ears, so I gave up and left 'em to their self induced misery.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010612/ECH1-120.GIF?06-0

And that people just about sums it up.

goodbye another week of winter.

[UV-RAY]

ECM backing both UKMo and GFs at 120, no surprises IMO.

[karyo]

ECM 96 moves towards the UKMO et al-

Its rapidly looking as though phase 1 wont even launch....-- lets hope theres a phase 2 behind it....-

S

It seems that the ECM had overestimated the Scandi high on it's earlier output.

Another failed easterly!

Karyo

[Lampostwatcher]

Chasing rainbows

[MR EXTREMES]

Oh well back to the drawing board, ECM moves towards GFS, no surprise there.

yep incredibly im really taken back just goes to show gfs maybe right and a bad ecm might be wrong but might be right either was expect a change in the morning eastern seaboard now lets see what happens from there.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not what we wanted to see at 120....must be one of those rare ocassions where the GFS has the upper hand over ECM. However, pertinent to longer term prospects, there appears to be a slightly improved polar profile.

[IDO]

I did re-post a link to that a few times but it appeared to be falling on deaf ears, so I gave up and left 'em to their self induced misery.

Its 5 days away the forecast easterly. This is the sort of time when the pattern becomes locked in. The trend is that the easterly will go to our east. We have to wait for the next shot. And guess what the same thing may happen again. It is the UK, thats what happens. Cold gone east:

[UV-RAY]

It seems that the ECM had overestimated the Scandi high on it's earlier output.

Another failed easterly!

Karyo

Back to the drawing board, GFS leads the way again.

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?06-0

And that people just about sums it up.

goodbye another week of winter.

Really?

One set of 12zs (all very cold after D4)- provide no snow for much of England and Wales (at least until D6), and it's 'goodbye another week of winter'.

[nick sussex]

Oh well back to the drawing board, ECM moves towards GFS, no surprise there.

Its hard to know what the 144hrs will look like but there are differences across the ECM/GFS/UKMO at 120hrs.

The ECM is still better than the UKMO which is at least one positive.

[Cloud 10]

ECM at 120 hrs..

MOD discussion at 7pm..

[SMU]

I did re-post a link to that a few times but it appeared to be falling on deaf ears, so I gave up and left 'em to their self induced misery.

sorry there are no deaf ears- we know it meant- there would be some wild swings in the low res-

Sadly we are not low res any more- t120 isnt going to change that much- the longwave pattern is pretty set & now the it appears to be this weeks shortwave pattern is pretty clear-

No proper cold.

[MR EXTREMES]

Really?

One set of 12zs (all very cold after D4)- provide no snow for much of England and Wales (at least until D6), and it's 'goodbye another week of winter'.

i was just about to add still cold maybe a 3 even 5 day colder spell not a cold snap.

[UV-RAY]

That's odd. Surely an active Sun wouldn't cool the Strat down again?

it would crank,up the jet though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Its hard to know what the 144hrs will look like but there are differences across the ECM/GFS/UKMO at 120hrs.

The ECM is still better than the UKMO which is at least one positive.

I think the 144 will be ok Nick

[SMU]

Really?

One set of 12zs (all very cold after D4)- provide no snow for much of England and Wales (at least until D6), and it's 'goodbye another week of winter'.

you are mistaken- none are that cold- pretty average to be honest ( or just below average if it makes you feel better)- it will feel cold however.

UKMO day 6 is as good as no interest for a week. just the same as ECM at 120 will need a big turnaround by 168 to produce anything meaningful-

S

[UV-RAY]

i was just about to add still cold maybe a 3 even 5 day colder spell not a cold snap.

Much as Roger J Smith said it would, end of the month for sustained cold is looking a good bet.