Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Bristawl Si]

if u go back a couple of days it was around 17th/18th that the 'real' cold was progged to arrive in the UK.

What we saw yday and this morning was a bonus really imo.

Repeat and rinse!

[Met4Cast]

Much as Roger J Smith said it would, end of the month for sustained cold is looking a good bet.

"at the end of the month" we've been saying that since the middle of November.

[Buzz]

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?06-0

And that people just about sums it up.

goodbye another week of winter.

For such a 'respected' member you really do make some knee-jerk and OTT posts at times.

[karyo]

I think the 144 will be ok Nick

Ok, but a huge downgrade to what it showed 12 and 24 hours ago.

Karyo

[UV-RAY]

"at the end of the month" we've been saying that since the middle of November.

Roger hasn't though, his winter forecast is spot on up until now.

[snowstorm445]

Zero consistency from the models as per usual. More proof that they should simply not be trusted beyond even the next few days let alone a week.

[Long haul to mild]

I have never expected cold before mid month anyway so today's 12z are hardly a disaster. Second half of January will provide something far more wintry I'm sure.

Sadly, this thread will probably degenerate into alternating toy throwing and smug 'told you so' posts over the next few hours, which is a pity as us less experienced members learn nothing from either of those categories of post.

[jessandjon]

Come on it was one afternoons run

[weather eater]

Hello what happened there 120hrs to this at 144hrs

Edited January 6, 2013 by weather eater

[snowmadchrisuk]

lol at you lot , it's game on again at +144

Edited January 6, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Isolated Frost]

you are mistaken- none are that cold- pretty average to be honest ( or just below average if it makes you feel better)- it will feel cold however.

UKMO day 6 is as good as no interest for a week. just the same as ECM at 120 will need a big turnaround by 168 to produce anything meaningful-

S

That would be very cold at the surface, not as cold as progged earlier, but widespread frost and below average easily

[karlos1983]

I made this mistake earlier, learnt my ways and shut my mouth, liking 144

[EML Network]

How on Earth does the ECM go from this >>

TO THIS...(IN 24 HOURS) ??...Not that I am complaining

[Lampostwatcher]

ECM t144

Lol

[IDO]

lol at you lot , it's game on again at +144

Why do you say that?

Its not gonna produce much from there.

Edited January 6, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[nick sussex]

I think the 144 will be ok Nick

I'm happy to bin all the output and go back into my easterly bubble until tomorrow!!!

Three top models allegedly with 3 different outcomes at 144hrs so as much as we're disappointed whilst theres no agreement then I think I'm going to refrain from ordering in the prozac!

[Bristawl Si]

"at the end of the month" we've been saying that since the middle of November.

SI specifically referred to Roger's forecast - maybe u should find it and read it.

[Wilxy]

Nothing to complain about after 144h still shows strong heights heading north, better than having raging atlantic lows.

[phil nw.]

Really am surprised at the downbeat comments.

Deep cold and snow was never modelled this coming week.The block and pattern is still to setup with pressure rising northwards across the UK in the next 3-4 days and it will get colder.The 2mtr graphs show that.

let`s give the new pattern time to set up-it will likely be into the week after before we see another step forward.

There`s nothing unexpected in the early 4 days of the models.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I will say in advance , my guess is 192-240 will end up on a ridge extending towards Greenland ,as the High briefly drops south over the UK, and then backs West ... Could be wrong though ..

[SMU]

For such a 'respected' member you really do make some knee-jerk and OTT posts at times.

Not really its been obvious for 24 hours-- its just people like yourself refuse to believe what the information is telling you.-

I used to be like that - in denial- chase every cold model. we need to wise up, As said if it can go wrong it will go wrong for the UK.

The last 24 hours have just been masked by a great ECM.

Now all models are signing from the same hymn sheet then there is no knee jerk. All slightly different but all saying the same.

Also the Greenland high is gone tonight by the time you get to 192 on the ECM...

S

[chris55]

No towels thrown in from me tonight,

Take the big three at 144, such huge differences, no output can be taken at face value tonight.

[ChartViewer]

BOM Looking good at T240

Chinese model rolling out.......come on people its only the weather

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[TEITS]

Sadly we are not low res any more- t120 isnt going to change that much- the longwave pattern is pretty set & now the it appears to be this weeks shortwave pattern is pretty clear-

No proper cold.

Hmm sorry but haven't we just seen a change in the output and whats to say it won't revert back to a more favourable outlook.

Very poor analysis from you tonight Steve!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Why do you say that?

Its not gonna produce much from there.

Because I bet no one on here thought you would get a +144 chart like that , following on from what it showed at +120 . with ECM we still get the initial Easterly with -5 850's which in January is cold enough for some Snow .