Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Snowman.]

The ECM better be good or I fear for the sanity of this thread.

Yep that would be 3rd time this winter which I think would drive everyone here crazy.

I usually only like snow in December but snow at least is good.

[nick sussex]

Some interesting news from NOAA.

This is in relation to the shortwave which ejects out of the USA and heads slowly east. The ECM 00hrs took this more towards Greenland, the GFS ejects this out further south into the Atlantic.

This becomes a key component of how the ECM develops its later output.

The preference was a non GFS blend.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED NOTABLY SHARPER WITH THE

SECOND SHRTWV TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE

GRT LAKES TUE/WED WITH A SFC LOW TRACK SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES UPSTREAM WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PAC

LONG WAVE TROF AIMING FOR THE WEST COAST TUE/WED...THERE IS SOME

POTENTIAL THAT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHRTWV TROF COULD IMPACT THE UPR

MIDWEST/GRT LAKES LATE TUE/WED AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. THE ENSEMBLE

GUIDANCE THOUGH DOES NOT YET SUPPORT THAT. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN

AWAY FROM THE GFS WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED CONFIDENCE.

This may change of course depending on the latest ECM run but for now the GFS is an outlier solution.

[peterf]

looks donald ducked to me.

[Weathizard]

Some interesting news from NOAA.

This is in relation to the shortwave which ejects out of the USA and heads slowly east. The ECM 00hrs took this more towards Greenland, the GFS ejects this out further south into the Atlantic.

This becomes a key component of how the ECM develops its later output.

The preference was a non GFS blend.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED NOTABLY SHARPER WITH THE

SECOND SHRTWV TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE

GRT LAKES TUE/WED WITH A SFC LOW TRACK SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES UPSTREAM WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PAC

LONG WAVE TROF AIMING FOR THE WEST COAST TUE/WED...THERE IS SOME

POTENTIAL THAT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHRTWV TROF COULD IMPACT THE UPR

MIDWEST/GRT LAKES LATE TUE/WED AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. THE ENSEMBLE

GUIDANCE THOUGH DOES NOT YET SUPPORT THAT. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN

AWAY FROM THE GFS WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED CONFIDENCE.

This may change of course depending on the latest ECM run but for now the GFS is an outlier solution.

Interesting Nick. Looking at the outputs, the way the ECM handles that looks the big difference to me, we get a better ridge and WAA to our north, when the two highs link and 'encage' the low, that's when it ends up not as good, obviously there is complications around us shortwave wise but I don't think these are significant problems as long as they track SE/ESE. Or am I just mad?

Looking forward to the ECM but fearing for sanity should it not show what people want!

[AWD]

GFS ensemble suite;

Still a cooler spell of weather favoured over anything milder. Too much of a spread in FI to take anything from.

2m temperatures rather chilly if you ask me;

Edited January 6, 2013 by AWD

[chris55]

Await ECM with interest tonight. The SSW and subsequent affects look to be causing some divergence between the models. If ECM sticks with it's last two runs then thats where i'd put my faith, if not then maybe GFS is onto something in the shorter term. But longer term, last third of Jan, we should still have plenty of interest. Remember Ian Fs forecast from the other day, tail end of Jan was the period he mentioned regarding the SSW and if this "initial "quick" response fails then the subsequent warmings and lag effect should keep us in business.

[weathersupremacy]

Which model, other than Glosea4?, will be the first to factor in the SSW? Will it be tomorrow's 12Z? Or will it be as soon as the 0Z?

[shuggee]

Worth remembering this synoptic set-up wasn't shown at T+240, or T+168 even. There wasn't a big countdown with tropospheric models showing 'will it/won't it' and the resultant hope-raising and arguments across the board. It came out of nowhere only 48 hours ago. That should inform and reassure members as to where FI la-la land begins at the moment with the current atmospheric set-up.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The UKMO isnt that bad anyway , sw's going SE and filling ... a possible undercut about to develop in Europe and if it went out further I doubt at all it would flatten the pattern .. Mean on 12z keep's -5 850's over the UK till deep in FI before a brief milder interlude from the West (aka Met 16 day) Then gets Cold again . ECMWF have only just viewed this mornings run and was amazed , I bet the forum went crazy , The Ecmwf on it's cold runs, does have a habit of making everything look perfect , which is unlikely ,but it does look very possible , baring the odd SW that may cause a delay here and there , but overall , still looking likely that we are entering into a cold phase , lengh ??? 14 days at least ...

[cooling climate]

In case nobody has seen it pertubation 2 is a thing of beauty and to be quite

honest is synoptically quite plausable over the coming days and weeks.

This would be the sort of run I am hoping the ECM will morph into and the

other operational runs will soon be showing.

[Dexter29]

And rightly so IMO given how dire the winter has been for snow lovers so far!

I thought winter 2011/12 was poor up to this point, but at least I had a 2 inch fall of snow in the December of that season!

Agree, I see nothing wrong with members becoming frustrated should the models back away from any decent cold.

Mid Jan, and still not one flake of snow for some.

When gorgeous charts show themselves and at least provide good consistency for a couple of days along with strong background signals, only then to have that taken from them, I see every reason why a cold lover should become frustrated/annoyed.

It's only when members analyse each run and take it as gospel then I fear they are just torturing themselves, at least it's entertaining to read.

[Katiewombat]

Well Just got back from taking the boy back to Uni, thought I’d view the 12z before looking at the forum, so reading though the last 10 pages has been like watching a car crash in very slow motion. Looking good, no traffic, plain sailing, woops a bit off a swerve there, not to worry we are still on the road, oh dear a wheel has fallen off, rats now we are on the verge, blimey mind that tree, thank goodness we have stopped, Then everyone clambers out and starts arguing about what went wrong, whose fault it was, can’t believe it, surely we were told this trip was nailed on, no problems. but never mind it will be alright we can just use the other car you know the ECM 2000 it does crash frequently but not as often as the GFS TDI. anyway it was alright on the last couple of runs so it’s bound to run like a dream again.

I wish I had time to read through sounds like a comedy sketch.

Katie

Xx

[UV-RAY]

Not long now before the ECM either says yeah or neah, I think we will see a neah but just when you think the games up the pub run brings this place into meltdown.

I still expect more ups and downs, but I think any cold spell will be delayed until the latter part of this month.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Theresnoway]

Pretty laughable the difference with some of the ensembles in the longer term

Indeed those GFS short essembles posted above show a 15 degree variation in 850 temps at 168, so all to play for past next week.

[Summer Sun]

Latest on twitter for the cold spell

Liam Dutton If it's going to happen, it'll be a two step affair. Temps down to average this week, then a proper blast middle of next week...

Matthew Hugo Mixed views from the 12z UKMO and GFS. Neither backing the potency of the E'ly from previous ECM runs. Plenty of uncertainty...

[nick sussex]

Interesting Nick. Looking at the outputs, the way the ECM handles that looks the big difference to me, we get a better ridge and WAA to our north, when the two highs link and 'encage' the low, that's when it ends up not as good, obviously there is complications around us shortwave wise but I don't think these are significant problems as long as they track SE/ESE. Or am I just mad?

Looking forward to the ECM but fearing for sanity should it not show what people want!

The ECMs view of that shortwave is really critical because it phases with energy near Greenland and helps develop that WAA, the GFS takes the shortwave into the Atlantic and allows a nose of high pressure to head out of the ne USA.

We need a driver to get rid of residual energy near the UK and eject a shortwave cleanly into the continent, the GFS doesn't have this hence the energy just sits over the UK.

We'll know by 120hrs on the ECM what our fate is!

[SMU]

The poor context of the 12s is the fact that the GFS is almost a repeat performance of yesterdays 12z, but not quite as bad, the UKMO however has moved a long way towards the GFS with the weaker flow of advection across NW europe-#

For reference the much touted ECM runs at 168 then 144 00z overnight-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013010512/ECH1-168.GIF?12 12z 5th

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010600/ECH1-144.GIF?06-12 00z 6th- this is a CRACKING UNSTABLE CHART

& now 144 UKMO & GFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013010612/UN144-21.GIF?06-18 westerly flow over the UK- poor

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010612/gfsnh-0-144.png?12 Low pressure in situ..

So when we stack them up the 12z UKMO, 12z GFS, & indeed the ensemble mean at 144

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-144.png?12

Are all POOR- very poor compared with the widespread snow showers that the ECM would produce.

You could say that the GFS maybe producing some heavy PPN, & indeed at that time will be around -2, so a chance for snow at elevation in the NE.. thats it really.

So again, for all the protestors who post nothing up & just moan the reality is both the GFS & UKMO especially tonight paint nothing wintry in their runs - UKMO nothing at all, the GFS a bit of wintryness for the NE near the end of high res-

this is a large departure away from the ECM-

Thats not to say the next ECM wont remain the same as the 00z & indeed continue the ramp up of greenland heights, however given the 12z data if it does run that similar evolution it will be still be at odds with the rest of the NWP suite. Even the BOM has now backtracked to A westerly flow...

Once again its looking same ol same ol for the UK...

S

[Bolton67]

Not long now before the ECM either says yeah or neah, I think we will see a neah but just when you think the games up the pub run brings this place into meltdown.

care to explain why you think the ECM is going to say neah? Or just a wrist slashing post?

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles

[Isolated Frost]

So winters running out and times ticking. Why oh why it's always do hard for us to achieve every time is just unreal! The excitement about the SSW and then potentially exciting charts is just once again being thrashed down the drain to leave us with nothing wintry yet again.

Utter tsk tsk.

Complete rubbish.

[The Eagle]

To be fair, though not ideal, both the 12z GFS and UKMO are fairly wintry for most. The ensemble mean goes below -5 850hpa for practically everywhere. Maybe it's an issue of "will we get snow?" - that's what everyone wants to know but they are still cold charts. And still lots of potential in FI in any case. The chopping and changing is just another reminder that automatic bitter cold and snow is not guaranteed.

Edited January 6, 2013 by The Eagle

[UV-RAY]

care to explain why you think the ECM is going to say neah? Or just a wrist slashing post?

Read Steve M post above, also in case you failed to spot it, it was a humorous post, obviously not one of your strong points.

I fully expect more ups and downs, but feel any cold spell will be delayed until the latter part of this month.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Blizzardof82]

Has no one listened to what Ian Ferguson posted the other day re models getting to grip with SSW, there are going to be more ups and downs than a hoars draws before we know which way this one is going.

[snowmadchrisuk]

12z ensembles

That just shows a tight cluster showing a Cold spell is not bad at all , mean in London is down to -5 by middle of next week , and doesn't rise above 0 for the whole run , what a large cluster of members going towards -10's . 2 weeks ago you all would be jumping at a set of ensembles like that. p.s , loving the 2 members that show -15 850's in London ,will have to look at the individual charts :0 Edited January 6, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Iceni]

At 276 hours it can show arctic condditions if it wants to but what's important is what is happening in the first 144 hours!

Worryingly, the sun is waking up which may tip the balance against the cold spell : http://www.spaceweather.com/

We need to see the solar activity drop quickly. I remember GP saying that the last upstick in activity may have contributed to the early December failed cold spell.

Karyo

That's odd. Surely an active Sun wouldn't cool the Strat down again?