Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[snowmadchrisuk]

And I'd say your mad too much energy into Greenland for the second shot at a northerly at 240 to materialise aswell, but you can't call a westwards shift with no evidence!

IMO, I'm not overly phased by today's runs, it was always going to be a highly uncertain time and whilst no models have a great handle on what's coming its best to keep your toys in the pram and listen to the wise words of Exeter and Ian F until we have more certainty, otherwise half of you on here will have had a heart attack by the time cold weather actually arrives..

Mad I am , but i look at things from an earlier time frame , that SW you see coming into view at +192 om the Ecm , I think there is a good chance that will be deflected more SE as it heads into High pressure , In turn this would mean the P/V wouldn't be strong over Greenland , as all the energy would be deflected into the Continent ... All good fun though ...

[bobbydog]

They don't as such , they will factor in the state things are in at +0 , so as the SSW starts to take effect in the strat , the models will pick on it from initial starting conditions .

that's the point really, as of now, the models are chugging along as if there is no warming. as the effects become more apparent, the models will change accordingly. theoretically at very short timescale as the situation evolves, therefore even the usual "reliable" timeframe cannot be relied upon.

[bluearmy]

They don't as such , they will factor in the state things are in at +0 , so as the SSW starts to take effect in the strat , the models will pick on it from initial starting conditions .

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG

how many times do we have to go thru this. The ssw is modelled in the same run as the topospheric patterns you look at - iits the same bloody model!!

So the model simulates the ssw and its consequences in exactly the same way it creates a greeny high etc etc etc and then the consequences of that etc etc

The only thing of relevance is the closer we get to the actual ssw, the better the data being fed in as the starting point. But you can say that about any data fed into the run.

[nick sussex]

I think alot of the frustration tonight is understandable given that we've had a really disappointing winter so far.

Its especially so when you see the components to an easterly developing and then find the models really making a pigs ear of just retrogressing the Azores high and taking historically what is not an unusual way to get there.

So yes I think if we were all honest we'd like to throw out the calm postings and have a good rant and chuck the comp out of the window, because of course we think why does every potential colder pattern have to be like pulling teeth!

Anyway putting aside my frustration we don't have agreement with the models and whilst thats the case then we cant rule anything out.

Once the models all agree on the general detail within 144hrs we can then either head over to the moan thread or wonder why we ever believed that they had any clue as we celebrate the proper start of winter!

[Methuselah]

it would crank,up the jet though.

More likely though, SI, it'll do absolutely nothing?

[Jason M]

Really, Mr Murr was two frames ahead of the ECM charts all the way through. Including the failure of the UK high to ridge to Greenland, His prose may be emotive but I would suggest you take note as we can all learn a lot from his scripts.

6c uppers above average in the south at T240:

The 240 chart is not in anyway a bad chart though as the evolution from that would likely be northerly / Greenland high followed by easterly. This would sit with a good few GFS ensembles also. As others have said some poor and misleading analysis in this thread tonight. People are letting short term disappointment and the Dec debacle colour their thinking. Ian F warned of this very situation the other night and if he's reading this thread tonight he must feel like banging his head against a brick wall.

I know I quoted your post but this isn't aimed at anyone in particular, but its a shame as this thread has been very good of late and it would a shame for people to start going ott now.

Jason

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the 12Z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Sunday January 6th 2013.

All models show the pattern as before through the working days of this week with tomorrow being the last of the cloudy and mild days for now. On tuesday a band of rain crosses SE over the UK followed by clearer and colder conditions later. With every chance of frost on tuesday night together with some fog patches Wednesday should be a dry day as a ridge crosses over from the West. On Thursday further rain reaches Southern and Western areas and its here where the details between the models diverge.

GFS shows an unsettled end to the week and weekend as Low pressure moves SE and disrupts over the UK. There would be rain at times in temperatures rather colder than recently with some snow on the hills. through FI tonight GFS shows a continuation of very unsettled conditions with Low pressure migrating Southwards through the Eastern Atlantic and NW europe aetting up the chance of a potentially wintry and snowy interlude before a ridge collapses SE over the UK bringing drier and less wintry conditions by the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show that the operational was pretty much on the money in relation to its fellow members with temperatures at 850 averaging below the long term mean for most of the run. There are a few really cold members but the majority show just rather cold conditions conducive of a cold zonal type perhaps, although I must concede I have not looked at all the perturbations tonight. Precipitation levels would also lean towards a cold zonal pattern.

The Jet Stream shows a strong weakening over the coming week with a disorganized Jet sprinkled across all parts of the Atlantic and Europe though perhaps trending more South of the UK with time.

UKMO for midday on Saturday shows High pressure to the North and South with the one to the South strong enough to dictate proceedings as a fresh WNW flow delivers some showers following a trough having cleared the SE. It would be rather cold in the North but still mild relative to January's expected levels here in the South.

ECM shows a Low tracking to the South of the UK again tonight with some rain or sleet in the South. High pressure then takes control over the UK with frost and fog under settled conditions generally. In the final few days of the run. the High pulls west but with lower heights over the Greenland area no retrogression takes place tonight with the Uk stuck under dry and quiet conditions again with most areas chasing areas of cloud around in temperatures close to or a little below normal once the earlier days frosts ease away over the Continent.

In Summary things are not so good for the cold fraternity tonight for two reasons. One is that Higher pressure to the South allows weak lows and troughs crossing East over the UK as per UKMO later this week or in ECM's case there is little retrogression towards Iceland making the cold next weekend a shortlived affair as returning Polar Maritime air brings us back into a benign state again. Whichever way you look at it the UK remains a difficult place to get cold to establish and tonight's charts show how easy it is for things to go wrong. Nevertheless, I wouldn't get too downhearted if it's cold you like because I have a feeling that this is just another evolution from one run with the chances of something more tastier to develop with time as we move through this week.

[Dampdorset82]

I very rarely post in here because I refused to get sucked in to all the false ramping or doom mungering but I do follow to try and learn from more experienced users, But there seems to be very little acknowledgement to the fact our whole weather system has dramatically changed over the last 20 years & this is why the computers are finding it nearly impossible to read anything past 48hrs so my point is why do so many people get in to arguments over something that is so inaccurate that you may as well toss a coin as to when or if? cold weather will get here or not.

havent models been updated since 1993? if so they would have been updated by scientists with knowledge of our changing environment so Im not sure I agree. I think what has occured are more extreme events and they are becoming more frequent and that is where on occasions we are left in the dark......alittle

[bradymk]

Ok so the easterly on the ECM dissapears quite quickly although it will still be cold at the surface however what I find interesting about the ECM is although its been inconsistent along with the others, it has for the last 3/4 runs ended with a GH high and the PV dropping into Scandi with a northerly developing. Now i know the latest run doesn't have the greenland high that the others had but it still has an impending northerly at the end of the run. A trend for maybe the week after next or just another FI chart im not sure and i wonder if the ECM ensemble members show a similar scenario.

[That ECM]

The way some converse with each other is awful.

So the output is not as good this time round is not a prerequisite to have a go and be rude surely.

Edited January 6, 2013 by That ECM

[SMU]

Steve you do the forum or yourself no favours by constantly referring to charts beyond t96-120 where we areseeing large run to run differences..

You should know more than most that the Operationals beyond 4-5 days can`t be trusted at the moment.

Leave off the sad pills and let`s have the more objective Steve back please .

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is going to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when every other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

THe models wont change back they never do. - just like December it was game over once the models got a grip of the angle of the atlantic, once again now we reach 120 which is close to the strength of the model accuracy we see that things arent going to work in our favour-

Am I shouting, am I mad/ cussing- are my posts flaming other people- no. commenting on the models.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Methuselah]

Eh? Doesn't the same apply to members posting charts out in la la land looking for a second chance/bite at cherry making assumptions that the cold will still arrive.

The evening 6th January and we have no decent cold or snow in the next 7 days, I don't know about anyone else but in my eyes, Steve is calling this spot on!

He might be. But then again, he might not...I doubt Steve's any more of a clairvoyant than I am!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is goiung to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when verey other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

Im with you steve,the 12z's are a kick in the teeth,still time for a turnaround though i think we can agree on that given the volatile nature of the NH at present.

[latitude]

No idea what the fuss is about? We have only had a few days of the models showing a colder theme. The SSW has only just happend or is happening so the output will continue to change.

Why of why was anyone looking for cold and snow this week or next weekend? Dont think the signals were there even a week ago. Only that a SSW was going to happen.

Bored of all the 'told you so posts' from certain members, one in particular who is very boring now.

We are starting to head into a cooler/colder dryer pattern, thank god because us in SW need it. Ice and three feet of snow wont help my region when it melts!

I just have Ian F's words in my head.......patience

[snowmadchrisuk]

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG

how many times do we have to go thru this. The ssw is modelled in the same run as the topospheric patterns you look at - iits the same bloody model!!

So the model simulates the ssw and its consequences in exactly the same way it creates a greeny high etc etc etc and then the consequences of that etc etc

The only thing of relevance is the closer we get to the actual ssw, the better the data being fed in as the starting point. But you can say that about any data fed into the run.

I don't mind being wrong as I know you follow the Stratophere more than I do , but yeah if there is a 20 degree warming at +0 , The models will obviously have real time data to model on from ... I really do think this could go either way , and i think has lot to do with the initial placement of High pressure , over the last few days i have seen it over Greenland , I have seen it over Scandi , I have seen it somewhere in the middle linking up with the Arctic , and on the good runs I have seen it linked from Scandi all the way across to the western Greenland. It has been constantly moving and just because of the runs today arn't as good a they were , nobody can say that the Models have predicted it's final position .. When this happens all Models and Ensembles will agree , And we still have lot's of different options available,,,, tomorrow the Models will have another 24 hours of data and be different again Anyway I am rambling now , but slowly getting Colder next week with Fog and Frost returning would be my bet in the short term ..

[winterof79]

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is going to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when every other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

THe models wont change back they never do. - just like December it was game over once the models got a grip of the angle of the atlantic, once again now we reach 120 which is close to the strength of the model accuracy we see that things arent going to work in our favour-

Am I shouting, am I mad/ cussing- are my posts flaming other people- no. commenting on the models.

As much as i acknowledge you have far superior views re the models,i find your posts quite strange/annoying compared to your usual views.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010612/gfs-2-174.png?12

No snow potential there almost zero?Get a grip and stop the theatricals as we all know the output WILL change

Edited January 6, 2013 by winterof79

[John Cox]

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is going to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when every other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

THe models wont change back they never do. - just like December it was game over once the models got a grip of the angle of the atlantic, once again now we reach 120 which is close to the strength of the model accuracy we see that things arent going to work in our favour-

Am I shouting, am I mad/ cussing- are my posts flaming other people- no. commenting on the models.

From an older poster.....

You, and I, and most others, know where you are coming from.... thats all that matters... Theres always the minority !!

[Ian Brown]

Im with you steve,the 12z's are a kick in the teeth,still time for a turnaround though i think we can agree on that given the volatile nature of the NH at present.

They were only a kick in the teeth if you were expecting the ECM to carry on with it's previous output and the other models to support it. I wasn't.

Cross model agreement is vital when you are looking for cold spells between T96 and T168, we haven't had it yet. But if we compare the 'big 3' models at days 6 & 7, there are HUGE differences, whereas with many previous failures, the models have all picked on something, a typical scupperer, and we can see how it is going to fail.

I can't see any easy route to sustainable heights to the North of the UK from any of the output tonight, but the uncertainty means that it's very much more runs needed.

[bobbydog]

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG

how many times do we have to go thru this. The ssw is modelled in the same run as the topospheric patterns you look at - iits the same bloody model!!

So the model simulates the ssw and its consequences in exactly the same way it creates a greeny high etc etc etc and then the consequences of that etc etc

The only thing of relevance is the closer we get to the actual ssw, the better the data being fed in as the starting point. But you can say that about any data fed into the run.

that may be the case, but isnt it true that the effect on the troposphere is extremely variable and relatively hard to model, especially at longer range? if that is the case (and i could well be wrong- i'm no expert) would we not be looking at a very dynamic and evolving situation even at short range?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, the ECMWF eventually gets to a typical Greenland high/Scandinavian low type setup by T+240. I am now back to feeling that widespread snowfall is unlikely before mid-January, but then again this always looked likely until we had the couple of ECMWF runs showing a potent east to north-easterly blast in the second week.

It's hard for most snow lovers to be patient after the letdown in December 2012, but many significant cold snowy spells of the past have come about gradually, with a week or so of increasingly blocked, dry and progressively colder weather before we wander into the freezer. Mid-December 2009 was a good recent example, with a couple of "nearly-easterlies" before the 36-hour NE'ly hit on the 17th/18th followed by generally cold snowy weather until the second week of January. The very cold and, for many, snowy weather starting around 6 January 1985 also evolved gradually.

In the near term, it's likely to be pretty wet over much of Scotland and Northern Ireland over the next two to three days as fronts come in around the periphery of our high pressure- this could well create more problems with flooding.

[ChartViewer]

They were only a kick in the teeth if you were expecting the ECM to carry on with it's previous output and the other models to support it. I wasn't.

Cross model agreement is vital when you are looking for cold spells between T96 and T168, we haven't had it yet. But if we compare the 'big 3' models at days 6 & 7, there are HUGE differences, whereas with many previous failures, the models have all picked on something, a typical scupperer, and we can see how it is going to fail.

I can't see any easy route to sustainable heights to the North of the UK from any of the output tonight, but the uncertainty means that it's very much more runs needed.

Enlighten me please Ian

[Cheshire Freeze]

that may be the case, but isnt it true that the effect on the troposphere is extremely variable and relatively hard to model, especially at longer range? if that is the case (and i could well be wrong- i'm no expert) would we not be looking at a very dynamic and evolving situation even at short range?

Hit the nail on the head my friend. It's an ever evolving situation......it's just this evening it hasn't evolved as we'd like.

Edited January 6, 2013 by CreweCold

[Theresnoway]

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG

how many times do we have to go thru this. The ssw is modelled in the same run as the topospheric patterns you look at - iits the same bloody model!!

So the model simulates the ssw and its consequences in exactly the same way it creates a greeny high etc etc etc and then the consequences of that etc etc

The only thing of relevance is the closer we get to the actual ssw, the better the data being fed in as the starting point. But you can say that about any data fed into the run.

Would I be right in saying the models may struggle with forecasting the propagation, so once this has actually started happening the model will be using more robust data. Actual data rather than forecast?

[chris55]

Surely this is the model output thread- I am commenting on the model output.

Models post 4-5 cant be trusted at the moment- sorry I think your placing to much faith in the fact the something spectacular is going to change them.

Not doing the forum any favours?-- get real.

People are hiding behind the fact that its easier to say the models will be wrong than actually interprete the info presented.

The bottom line is that our hopes of anything seasonal WRT snow which should be in the mix at points in winter - are almost at zero again.

If you want to break out & discuss day 3 + day 4 then be my guest-- however thats not the period of alleged interest. it was from 120-168, why choose to comment on my post when every other person is choosing the mid term output... maybe its because they are generally looking for cold & possible snow.

If people dont want to read what I post they can hit the ignore button & 'choose' to follow someone elses posts. The reality is all Im doing is commenting on what the models show & the ensembles when they are available....-

If a few more people did instead of bleating at me then it wouldnt look so out of kilter against some of the other posts.-

As said a change to a few chilly days- maybe a bit colder depending on the final flow, but for the prospects of snow the chances are realistically very low within the next 7 days after FEELING like it was odds on yesterday..

THe models wont change back they never do. - just like December it was game over once the models got a grip of the angle of the atlantic, once again now we reach 120 which is close to the strength of the model accuracy we see that things arent going to work in our favour-

Am I shouting, am I mad/ cussing- are my posts flaming other people- no. commenting on the models.

Yes Steve i have to agree, this possible cold spell is gone....it's Zonal all the way, mild and wet (not).

My one piece of advise to you Steve would be to keep emotion out of your posts, you are up there with the most knowledgeable posters on this forum, but you rarely see those guys arguing there way through the Model output thread!

Edited January 6, 2013 by chris55

[Chris D]

There's a lot of steam in the thread tonight, can we remember what we are actually arguing about. The weather. And more specifically, a SSW. Model mayhem was what was predicted (esp by Ian F) - and that is exactly what we have.

That's my last post in the model thread for a while.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Chris D