Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Dexter29]

Much as Roger J Smith said it would, end of the month for sustained cold is looking a good bet.

Haven't we been saying look to the

''end of the month''since the beginning of November?

I'm so glad I kept my feet firmly on the ground. No real cold was showing before FI and the only cold that was showing (FI) I knew, gut feeling would never make it to reliable and my gut was right.

Hopefully end of Jan will deliver but I won't hold my breath.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's worth remembering what the ECM 12Z was showing for what is now +120 a mere 48 hours ago:

compared to today's 12Z:

And also, look at the date: the 11th January, just five days after technical SSW.

Edited January 6, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Buzz]

Really am surprised at the downbeat comments.

Deep cold and snow was never modelled this coming week.The block and pattern is still to setup with pressure rising northwards across the UK in the next 3-4 days and it will get colder.The 2mtr graphs show that.

http://www.meteociel...CH1-96.GIF?06-0

let`s give the new pattern time to set up-it will likely be into the week after before we see another step forward.

There`s nothing unexpected in the early 4 days of the models.

Thank you - seemingly one of the few voices of sanity in here, as opposed to some of the farcical knee jerk and 'manic depressive' posts from some who really should know a lot better ........

[Cheshire Freeze]

From 168 hrs will the heights edge towards Greenland? Looks like the low heights want to try to disintegrate around the Greenland locale at 168 with the vortex energy digging SE. This could leave the door slightly ajar for a height rise at 192 (the timeframe when Greenland height rises were progged in the first place). The easterly was never part of the grand plan anyway until a couple of days ago when the GFS threw it into the mix.

Edited January 6, 2013 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

Not really its been obvious for 24 hours-- its just people like yourself refuse to believe what the information is telling you.-

I used to be like that - in denial- chase every cold model. we need to wise up, As said if it can go wrong it will go wrong for the UK.

The last 24 hours have just been masked by a great ECM.

Now all models are signing from the same hymn sheet then there is no knee jerk. All slightly different but all saying the same.

Also the Greenland high is gone tonight by the time you get to 192 on the ECM...

S

Sorry, but stating "if t can go wrong it will go wrong for the UK" is sure a contradiction to what your implying

[Long haul to mild]

Almost comedic differences at T144 this evening, exactly what IF said would happen to the models. Next weekend onwards, anything could happen.

Weather has made fools of the very best in the past and it will continue to do so in the future. If anyone tells you that they know what will happen after 5 days time, they are very brave and will probably be wrong.

[Jason M]

Of course tonight's runs will be correct at days 6, 7 and 8 whereas yesterday's and this mornings runs were clearly wrong :-)

Small differences in Synoptics have big implications for us and differences will continue to occur for the end of next week. Models are all over the place. This was expected.

Tough evening for the mods sadly I suspect.

Jason

[The Eagle]

all models are signing from the same hymn sheet

The thing is they are not. Look at 96 and 120 across the UKMO, ECM and GFS. Yes they don't show quite the cold spell we are looking for but it is hardly stunning agreement.

[Weathizard]

All gone pete tong but hope that its still a blip! Strange that now the SSW has occured/currently happening we've seen these changes, coincidence?

[SMU]

That would be very cold at the surface, not as cold as progged earlier, but widespread frost and below average easily

No. chilly.

but who cares- its a cr*p chart unless you like dry & chilly. which I guess is better than mild & soppy wet.

Very cold at the surface is sub 3c- so anything starting with 2- Most places would max out around 5c on that especially the east.-

By 168 no cold uppers anywhere, just some residual surface cold- which will feel seasonal-

If people dont like the assessment then look at it for longer.

[mulzy]

This evening's outputs are a downgrade (esp the ECM), but it's still all to play for with regards day 10 plus pattern.

Edited January 6, 2013 by mulzy

[cooling climate]

The tail end of the ECM run tonight will be very good and probably better

than the 0z not that it means anything.

LOL well I got that wrong.

The charts this evening are nothing like they were showing for the coming

weekend whether they turn out to be right or not is another matter.

Can not understand the negative response to Steves posts he is just saying

what the models are showing compared to this morning or yesterday.

Personaly would not be surprised to see them flip back to a much more

promising pattern tomorrow. Or even on tonights 18z run.

Edited January 6, 2013 by cooling climate

[Thundery wintry showers]

An essentially cold but dry pattern showing on the ECMWF at around T+120-192- the 850hPa temperatures are generally above -5C and this would not support snow showers off the North Sea, in contrast to this morning's offering, but the ECM was always at odds with the UKMO/GFS on that particular easterly outbreak.

The amount of divergence between the UKMO/ECMWF/GFS is indeed staggering at T+120 onwards and the models are clearly struggling to deal with the impacts of the sudden stratospheric warming event on the weather in the vicinity of the British Isles. Below-average temperatures look a highly likely bet, but it is impossible to call whether or not it will be cold or moist enough for snow.

My long-range forecast issued a few days ago went for a very cold and possibly snowy spell (though with considerable uncertainty attached) in the last third of January and to be honest I've been surprised by how abrupt the shift in synoptic pattern is progged to be at present. It may well be that if we do get a snowy spell, rather than being ushered in initially by an easterly, it might come on the back of a northerly plunge, as the ECMWF has been very consistent recently in projecting a Scandinavian trough and Atlantic/Greenland blocking around mid-January.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[IDO]

Almost comedic differences at T144 this evening, exactly what IF said would happen to the models. Next weekend onwards, anything could happen.

Weather has made fools of the very best in the past and it will continue to do so in the future. If anyone tells you that they know what will happen after 5 days time, they are very brave and will probably be wrong.

But they are all trending from a cold easterly setup to just ordinary winter fare. With only five days to go you dont want that. Not claiming winter is over, just it isn't gonna start (snow) next weekend. Probably.

Edited January 6, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think the best, safest and less stressful route to cold would be a Greenland height rise. It may not be what those in the SE want in terms of potential snow streamers etc etc but it would benefit everyone a lot more than the fabled easterly which never seems to actually manifest itself!

[Cloud 10]

JMA is very similar to the ECM this evening around day 6.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010612/ECH1-192.GIF?06-0

No greenland high.

A CIRCULAR atlantic high which means NO ridging north. milder air quickly returning from the NW. 1 chilly day in the UK.

S

[IDO]

As Steve M says. Goodbye Scandi high at T192:

[ChartViewer]

T192 Synoptically the vortex is shredded...where will we end up...think alot of people expecting too much too fast

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Jupiters Winter]

No consistency! More runs needed and attention towards Ensembles is suggested rather than the OP's @ the moment.

General current OP's pattern brings in cool/cold surface conditions (seasonal). Placement of high still not pinned and major changes on OP run to run @ the moment.

ECM OP this evening will be a milder option (hopefully)

Edited January 6, 2013 by Jupiters Winter

[snowmadchrisuk]

I will say in advance , my guess is 192-240 will end up on a ridge extending towards Greenland ,as the High briefly drops south over the UK, and then backs West ... Could be wrong though ..

As predicted at +192 the block backs west and moves towards Greenland ... God i'm getting good at this weather model lark

[stainesbloke]

All I can see from the charts is a pattern change away from mild/zonal, don't know how people seem to know exactly what's going to happen deep in FI and why bother posting charts showing how much snow we will get in a fortnight etc etc...doesn't help my learning and gets boring. I thought ramping/depressed posts were for another thread? After Decembers melodrama I think I'm just going to keep checking charts and not bother with the comments

[ronan]

So negative in here this evening!! One run??

[ChartViewer]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?06-0

No greenland high.

A CIRCULAR atlantic high which means NO ridging north. milder air quickly returning from the NW. 1 chilly day in the UK.

S

Steve you mention that some people are hanging on every model for cold but isnt that what you and most of us in this thread are doing?

It seems to me everyone (including me) are posting charts off every model that rolls out so we are all guilty ...cold/very cold/ or not so cold.

At least Arsenal didnt lose today...One plus point

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[phil nw.]

No. chilly.

but who cares- its a cr*p chart unless you like dry & chilly. which I guess is better than mild & soppy wet.

Very cold at the surface is sub 3c- so anything starting with 2- Most places would max out around 5c on that especially the east.-

By 168 no cold uppers anywhere, just some residual surface cold- which will feel seasonal-

If people dont like the assessment then look at it for longer.

Steve you do the forum or yourself no favours by constantly referring to charts beyond t96-120 where we areseeing large run to run differences..

You should know more than most that the Operationals beyond 4-5 days can`t be trusted at the moment.

Leave off the sad pills and let`s have the more objective Steve back please .

Edited January 6, 2013 by phil n.warks.