Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[bradymk]

no I haven't go on meteociel you will see

For the time period you showed, this is the ensemble mean

[Jaffusmaximus]

I'm enjoying watching how people reacts to this evolution of models outputs, nevermind the models themselves! Situations like this to bring out the more bizarre in some people.

As an outside viewer who has nothing to gain or lose from a situation like this...

Well I wouldn't put your money of a Strat warming event to deliver something special.. I can recount a few time in the past few year where a Strat cooling event has not lived up to its overinflated billing.

If we take a mean view of the last few runs, certainly snow would be possible, but more possible would be freezing rain... although this may change of colder air ends up over the UK.

Events like this can change, so it's not wise to assume cold will click into place, however at the same time, December 2010 proved that even fairly unlikely looking synoptics can deliver.

At worst people can enjoy the build up.

Are you a day-tripper out for a walk around an asylum to gawk at the inmates?

[ITSY]

Been travelling to Leeds all day, but an interesting look through the 06Z ens, the 12Z UKMO and the GFS12Z illustrates what we already know: that we know very little. Could get v cold and snowy, could get just cold and snowy or just cold or only briefly cold then average. Take your pick. ens coming out now, then ECM in an hour. Should be interesting. Here's hoping ECM sticks to its last two outputs!

[MR EXTREMES]

channel low anyone

[Cheshire Freeze]

Really is fine margins involved and depends on developments stateside and what that chunk of vortex ultimately decides to do.

Here's one ensemble

and the control...

Given the assumption that the ensembles work by slightly altering the initialising data, may I suggest that they may actually be worth more than the operationals at this moment, especially given the rapid changes that are likely to be taking place higher up in the atmosphere. Remember that even though models are run at higher resolution, this may only serve to amplify any errors.

Edited January 6, 2013 by CreweCold

[cold snap]

Is gfs 12z a mild outlier ?

[cooling climate]

no I haven't go on meteociel you will see

Look in the top right hand corner. you are clearly mistaken.

Anyway onto the charts and I would say do not be at all surprised if the ECM sticks

to its guns. One operational run from the GFS does not mean diddly squat there are

plenty of ens members that disagree completely with the ops output.

I know the op set at a higher res but sometimes this can be a drawback as it will latch

onto some data that may be fairly insignificant and run with it missing the bigger

picture.

The UKMO is right at the end of its range at t144 and so can not be completely trusted.

In this instance I think it best to stick with the ens and see what they are telling us.

It will be all smiles after the ECM.

[124alex]

channel low anyone

Ill take it!

[SP1986]

Are you a day-tripper out for a walk around an asylum to gawk at the inmates?

Both

[chris55]

As I thought the GFS control run is on the mild side of it's own esemble suite.

Here is the esemble mean at 168h:

Compare it to the gfs control run on same day

I think there should be some rather embarassed members on here now, when will they learn..

You have posted the control (first chart) and the Operational (Deterministic) second chart. The control is not the main run we see (not sure if you are confusing it with the op?). And there is no ensemble mean chart posted.

[AWD]

Is gfs 12z a mild outlier ?

Not in the short ens;

[Bobby]

Is gfs 12z a mild outlier ?

No look at the ensemble mean for the same time, pretty much the same

OP

Ensemble mean

[bluearmy]

Not happy with the way too many are showing individual day 6 or 7 ens members and using them to illustrate a point. Single ens members should not be used pre day 7 or 8 against the op run unless they are part of a large cluster against an unsupported op. at the resolution they are running, you would be better posting the chinese or brazilian op. but you wouldnt cos you dont trust the output. Exactly!

[Snowman.]

Wait for the ECM im just glad the CFS hasn't changed all that much as that model picks it up and then first to scrap and is usually right but it still showing us a easterly.

[bradymk]

Pretty laughable the difference with some of the ensembles in the longer term

[karyo]

channel low anyone

This is not a particularly good chart. The driver here will be the deep low in the Iceland area, likely to bring a return to westerlies very soon.

Karyo

[Snowman.]

No look at the ensemble mean for the same time, pretty much the same

OP

Ensemble mean

Waoh!

Look at the energy left around Greenland.

[AWD]

Wait for the ECM im just glad the CFS hasn't changed all that much as that model picks it up and then first to scrap and is usually right but it still showing us a easterly.

The ECM better be good or I fear for the sanity of this thread.

:p

Edited January 6, 2013 by AWD

[Richie V]

I'm struggling to get excited here, potential looks less than the Dec 12 failed easterly. Two problems I see are a lack of low enough heights over southern europe and a lack of any substantial cold 850 s in eastern/ ne europe. Be careful guys, even S Murr aint keen, and It's clear why!

[mcweather]

Even at this range there will be chopping and changing especially with the GFS because it puts out so many runs compared to the other ecm and ukmo.

There has been little run to run consistency with the gfs op with it seemingly jumping from one solution to another at will. Whereas the ECM has made relatively small step changes to the colder outcomes which have followed on from one another in a way that could be expected. Therefore at the moment I would tend to stick with the ECM rather than the GFS.

I am not saying this because of its colder overall outcome either just that the movements it has made towards cold on each run have been been a visible possibility from the previous run and not completely out of kilter like the gfs.

We will know in about 80 minutes whether the ECM has maintained that run to run consistency or not.

[Weathizard]

Definite downgrade in the ENS I feel. Hopefully a wobble, just pray the ECM sticks to its guns otherwise there will be lots of toys thrown out on here!

[Southender]

12z GFS is not a mild outlier. But it is clearly on the milder side of the mean early on. Which could make a big difference for the rest of the run. Or am I straw clutching?

[weather eater]

Well Just got back from taking the boy back to Uni, thought I’d view the 12z before looking at the forum, so reading though the last 10 pages has been like watching a car crash in very slow motion. Looking good, no traffic, plain sailing, woops a bit of a swerve there, not to worry we are still on the road, oh dear a wheel has fallen off, rats now we are on the verge, blimey mind that tree, thank goodness we have stopped, Then everyone clambers out and starts arguing about what went wrong, whose fault it was, can’t believe it, surely we were told this trip was nailed on, no problems. but never mind it will be alright we can just use the other car you know the ECM 2000 it does crash frequently but not as often as the GFS TDI. anyway it was alright on the last couple of runs so it’s bound to run like a dream again.

Edited January 6, 2013 by weather eater

[Cheshire Freeze]

otherwise there will be lots of toys thrown out on here!

And rightly so IMO given how dire the winter has been for snow lovers so far!

I thought winter 2011/12 was poor up to this point, but at least I had a 2 inch fall of snow in the December of that season!

Edited January 6, 2013 by CreweCold

[Eastbourneguy]

My basic 2 cents.

Looking at the GFS perturbations, 11 out of the 20 have blocking South of Greenland between 144 + 180.

A few have a similar solution to the 00z GFS, with a decent cold spell up to between +144 & +220, but no blocking setting up and long term prospects not looking so good.

Some have the initial cold glancing us, but then blocking does setup, so long term things look yummy.

UKMO is hard to know where it would go, especially for me! I personally don't pay much attention to the raw output anyway, I'll let Exeter do the talking. The raw UKMO between +96 & +144 never seem to be great, it held onto the December ghost Easterly for too long.

Now we wait on the ECM,

Anyone who says there is not much snow potential is talking rubbish.

Anyone who says it is more likely that we get a good cold spell is also talking rubbish.

Just enjoy there being some interesting charts to discuss!