Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[bluearmy]

UKMO brilliant at 144h!

Not in the context of what we've seen from other models. I'll grant you its brilliant if the last charts you'd seen were on tuesday!

However, could be worse i guess.

[cold snap]

Right people saying ukmo at 144 is good ?

Model fatigue?

[bradymk]

Not sure where some of these posts are coming from, GFS 12z isn't that bad but will see where it is with ensembles and UKMO looks ok to me at 144 but we will want ECM to stay consistent tonight

Edited January 6, 2013 by bradythemole

[Jason H]

Just alluding to the fact that the 00z of the same time frame had us in easterlies i think

You're making the mistake of comparing one run to the next. Look at the overall picture. If you and others keep comparing each nuance of pressure past T72, you're going to be in for a long long ride.

[snowstorm445]

This is plain UGLY!!! I'm off until the ECM rolls out, if that goes t*ts up I'll be back tomorrow!

What's ugly about it? A nice little Scandi High forming and an even better Arctic High forming above!

[Iceni]

Well I'm off to Finland for some skiing on the 20th let's hope the cold stays for abit longer after that week

With that lot in prospect, it's probably the last we'll hear of you for some time. Remember what happened to Captain Oates

[Dexter29]

Oh dear http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013010612/UN144-21.GIF?06-17!! I feel many toys will be thrown out of many prams this afternoon

Of course, it goes without saying.

A repeat of the Prozac posts from this time yesterday afternoon for sure.

Once again on the 12z any cold looks to be way out in FI, it's very much chasing rainbows. Hopefully we may reach the gold but for now, the 12z doesn't deliver for this weekend as well as the ECM and 06z

Edited January 6, 2013 by Dexter29

[MR EXTREMES]

alantic heights could we get this up around eastern greenland?

[pyrotech]

Sorry never saved end of first line, differences between ECM Fax and GFS

The Models are struggling with this senario which should be no surprise to us on here. However the GFS seems to be behind the ECM on here.

Its not a light the cigar time, but certainly the trend is for colder and the models just not sure how to get there. Scandi high looks most likely evolution and that is very positive.

Edited January 6, 2013 by pyrotech

[karlos1983]

What's ugly about it? A nice little Scandi High forming and an even better Arctic High forming above!

Yep, guilty, I got sucked in a bit early, my bad, should have known better!

[Ice Day]

UKMO brilliant at 144h!

This is plain UGLY!!! I'm off until the ECM rolls out, if that goes t*ts up I'll be back tomorrow!

Average , Ukmo poor gfs at 144

Difficult to not feel a bit deflated , just goes to show rule gfs out at your peril

Having said that ens will be key as will the ecm

Much better run hemispherically, with the energy splitting more cleanly and a tasty looking Arctic high forming by +168:

This is brilliant, these 4 posts were from exactly the same time.............and we wonder why newbies get confused!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snowstorm445]

Of course, it goes without saying.

A repeat of the Prozac posts from this time yesterday afternoon for sure.

Once again on the 12z any cold looks to be way out in FI, it's very much chasing rainbows.

Hopefully we may reach the gold but for now, the 12z doesn't deliver for this weekend as well as the ECM and 06z

Unless its in a 5 day range at least then it is certainly not definite. We've seen this happen on numerous occasions thus far this winter.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yesterday I posted about how the two stumbling blocks for a snowy spell could be, high pressure building over the UK, and/or persistent troughing in the mid to eastern Atlantic. The GFS 12Z run shows the latter, with low pressure stalling just to the west and feeding in relatively mild southerlies while the continent stays cold.

The GFS is all over the place at the moment, so I don't think too much should be read into it at this stage, but I retain a view that snow lovers should not get too excited, particularly as far as snowy easterlies or north-easterlies are concerned, unless they appear inside T+72.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[ChartViewer]

No 'reorganisation' of any vortex here...shredded into pieces...Synoptically beautiful...As chio said depends where wheel spins but beautiful to look at

T204

Hehe wild swings....

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Continental Climate]

Oh no look at the cold air coming towards us

Oh no its awful. *THROWS TOYS OUT OF THE PRAM LIKE A SPOILT BRAT*

I honestly don't understand some of the people on this forum. Relax, this isn't going to be the final outcome

This chart is good mate http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013010612/UN144-21.GIF?06-17!! Just not as good as the 00z, and people are just commenting on this, as its plainly there for people to see!!!

Lets wait for some gfs ensembles and the ecm but definitely a downgrade on the 12zs, SO FAR!!!

[snowstorm445]

Yep, guilty, I got sucked in a bit early, my bad, should have known better!

No probs. Sure it's understandable given the eye candy facing us earlier. Patience is a virtue.

[Harsh Climate]

Oh no look at the cold air coming towards us

Oh no its awful. *THROWS TOYS OUT OF THE PRAM LIKE A SPOILT BRAT*

I honestly don't understand some of the people on this forum. Relax, this isn't going to be the final outcome

For some a chart isn't brilliant unless we are seeing howling easterlies with -15 uppers crossing the entire country.

Just got a laugh at them and let them threat over nothing while us experienced members enjoy the developments of a potentially very good cold spell

[Geordiesnow]

Still think the main reasons for the not so good runs today is because the low exiting Greenland stopped any link up with heights coming down from the Arctic, I'm sure the GFS 12Z run yesterday shown this but now we get pressure on any Scandi block by the PV coming out of the Arctic.

The UKMO looks better too me in terms of blocking because there is an attempted link up, but the details around our shores could be better.

I don't see a very strong signal for an easterly but I do see height rises coming into play, whether it will affect us is anyone guess.

[nick sussex]

Right people saying ukmo at 144 is good ?

Model fatigue?

The UKMO isn't great with the Azores high too far east and how you'd get to an easterly from there will be like pulling teeth!

Before that the 120hrs had alarm bells ringing; the GFS is poor with the high pressure to the east orientated unfavourably although its pattern over the pole is better.

Overall so far a frustrating evening with the models doing their best to find every possible way to throw up hurdles, I hope the ECM at least manages to deliver an initial easterly because both the GFS and UKMO are giving me a migraine!

[snowstorm445]

Can I just remind people that this is an operational model, we need to pay attention to the ensembles to see if this is the general outlook overall or simply a mild(er) outlier.

[Bolton67]

Dear oh dear, why are people saying poor this poor that? Wrist slashing already starting. Can those who are being negative go back and look at the charts a week - ten days ago when the models were showing a uncle Barty set up. Now those charts were poor.

[Continental Climate]

For some a chart isn't brilliant unless we are seeing howling easterlies with -15 uppers crossing the entire country.

Just got a laugh at them and let them threat over nothing while us experienced members enjoy the developments of a potentially very good cold spell

I will remind you of this post next weekend when we are looking at south westerlies, HAHA only joking!!

Must be great to be an experienced member

[swfc]

Well its fi at 270 hrs but the pv has all but been obliterated.Great model output at the moment.85os hit nearly Ooc in the canairies in fi

Edited January 6, 2013 by swfc

[Panayiotis]

This is the result of a SSW lol!

[Harsh Climate]

The UKMO isn't great with the Azores high too far east and how you'd get to an easterly from there will be like pulling teeth!

Before that the 120hrs had alarm bells ringing; the GFS is poor with the high pressure to the east orientated unfavourably although its pattern over the pole is better.

Overall so far a frustrating evening with the models doing their best to find every possible way to throw up hurdles, I hope the ECM at least manages to deliver an initial easterly because both the GFS and UKMO are giving me a migraine!

I disagree, that low in the atlantic at 144h looks primed to draw in a south easterly feed which would most probably turn more easterly, especially with the decent heights to our north helping the squeeze.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Harsh Climate