Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Ian Brown]

One positive for me from a more sustainable perspective is the fact the GFS seems to have retracted its willingness to power up the PV into FI on the last couple of runs

It was becoming quite a baffling trend yesterday, given the strat warming.

Yes the GFS is better in the long range - in the shorter range it remains all over the place and the UKMO does not really inspire too much confidence. I would be surprised if the ECM backs up it's 0z and last nights run, I would expect something rather messier.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z T165+

Look at the ppn to the East....!

Ian

[bradymk]

GEM probably the best 12z run so far. shame it only goes out to +144 on its 12z run. A nervous wait for the ECM but its likely we will have a different solution again come the morning.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Very messy outlook with yet again the shortwaves creating havoc for the models.

We could be on the cusp of something superb or just something more seasonal,at the very least we at least have some interest after an awful December!!

[Harsh Climate]

so far both 12s are poor compared with what the ECM depicted overnight,

more runs needed, however little to get excited about if your looking for snow....

S

I'm amazed that that's your take on things.

The Ukmo is very good at 144h and full of potential and in looking at the gfs 12z all we are seeing at this moment is 1 perpetration out of 50 lol. So to say ' however little to get excited about if your looking for snow....' after just viewing 2 single runs with no back up from there own esembles, with previous runs being quite snowy is quite an astonishing thing to hear from such a well respected member!!

[Panayiotis]

Channel low to end the GEM 12z with us feeling a bitter easterly wind with snow showers for the south.

[Tom Jarvis]

When r the pertribations out??

[Paul White.]

I have to say their does seem to be a fair bit of nonsense posts this evening. The gfs has NOT shown any inter run agreement now between 96 and 240 for ages. But and alluding to JHs post above matching 12 with 12s and 6 with 6s etc there is an improvement on today's gfs 12z compared to yesterday's operational gfs 12z.. Now I know some of you will say "surly it's better to have a run with up to date info" and to some extent I would agree, but each run does start with different data sets. Each time. Starting with new up to date data. So for example today's gfs would of started with its own unique data but with 24hrs worth of extra info to improve the forecast. I hope that this post is not seen as teaching grannies to suck eggs

Paul

Ps I B I am sorry my post earlier was a little hostile and I respect your view and thanks for the clarification.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Channel low to end the GEM 12z with us feeling a bitter easterly wind with snow showers for the south.

BUT thats going to be very shortlived with heights falling rapidly to the NW.

[karlos1983]

GEFS P11 at 120 is where we are going, without question................

[Continental Climate]

I'm amazed that that's your take on things.

The Ukmo is very good at 144h and full of potential and in looking at the gfs 12z all we are seeing at this moment is 1 perpetration out of 50 lol. So to say ' however little to get excited about if your looking for snow....' after just viewing 2 single runs with no back up from there own esembles, with previous runs being quite snowy is quite an astonishing thing to hear from such a well respected member!!

Whilst having some healthy banter and disagreements is good i cant understand all this talk of the ukmo being very good, granted good compared to a couple of weeks ago but not great compared to the 00z run.

This is the model discussion thread all views should be respected not just the ones advocating cold.

Anyway if the 12zs arent a downgrade then its back to the learning thread for me!!

[Panayiotis]

When r the pertribations out??

By 5 clock they should all be out Meteociel - Diagrammes ENS GFS nouvelle génération (click your on the map where you live, chart of the ensembles should come up)

If you want to see each Perturbation, here is the link Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) (click GFS panel)

Edited January 6, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Uncle_Barty]

Average , Ukmo poor gfs at 144

Difficult to not feel a bit deflated , just goes to show rule gfs out at your peril

Having said that ens will be key as will the ecm

Just goes to show, don't dwell on the finer points of each and every run!!

And especially when a SSW is in progress and the full implications have yet to be realised......

I'm just keeping an interested eye on an overview of all the major models - we are in for a facinating period of model watching and for my money most things are possible, with a Bartlett scenario the least likely.

Edited cos I put "most" instead of "least" in the last line. Wishful thinking !

Edited January 6, 2013 by Uncle_Barty

[bluearmy]

To claim that the op gfs in high res is the same value as one of the ens members is wrong. However, as the run progresses into fi, then the op is indeed only as useful as any gefs member.

[Luisport]

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Mixed views from the 12z UKMO and GFS. Neither backing the potency of the E'ly from previous ECM runs. Plenty of uncertainty...

[Ice Day]

GEFS P11 at 120 is where we are going, without question................

Number 1's not too shoddy! How about this for next Saturday!

[bradymk]

Still some very good GEFS members, especially number 2.

[The PIT]

so far both 12s are poor compared with what the ECM depicted overnight,

more runs needed, however little to get excited about if your looking for snow....

S

Yes on that run a good chance I still won't see a Snow flake for a few more weeks. More worryingly everything gets pushed back again which isn't a good sign

[Harsh Climate]

As I thought the GFS control run is on the mild side of it's own esemble suite.

Here is the esemble mean at 168h:

Compare it to the gfs control run on same day

I think there should be some rather embarassed members on here now, when will they learn..

Edited January 6, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[bradymk]

As I thought the GFS control run is on the mild side of it's own esemble suite.

Here is the esemble mean at 168h:

Compare it to the gfs control run on same day

I think there should be some rather embarassed members on here now, when will they learn..

I think you have posted the wrong charts harsh climate, your GFS mean is actually the control run and for the control, you have posted the op?

[SP1986]

I'm enjoying watching how people reacts to this evolution of models outputs, nevermind the models themselves! Situations like this to bring out the more bizarre in some people.

As an outside viewer who has nothing to gain or lose from a situation like this...

Well I wouldn't put your money of a Strat warming event to deliver something special.. I can recount a few time in the past few year where a Strat cooling event has not lived up to its overinflated billing.

If we take a mean view of the last few runs, certainly snow would be possible, but more possible would be freezing rain... although this may change of colder air ends up over the UK.

Events like this can change, so it's not wise to assume cold will click into place, however at the same time, December 2010 proved that even fairly unlikely looking synoptics can deliver.

At worst people can enjoy the build up.

[Stu_London]

Number 1's not too shoddy! How about this for next Saturday!

Looks good on Metociel but not that good really - perhaps not far off what the CF forecast was suggesting

[Harsh Climate]

I think you have posted the wrong charts harsh climate, your GFS mean is actually the control run and for the control, you have posted the op?

no I haven't go on meteociel you will see

[Wivenswold]

We've been here before with GFS. Mark my words the 18z output will be brilliant for cold lovers only for the 00z to temper that excitement. ECM tonight I think will just cause more confusion as to what will happen after Friday. I hope not, but it's a gut feeling.

[Bobby]

I don't buy this "compare yesterdays 12z with todays 12z etc" idea. Surely yesterdays data and run are 24 hours out of date and lot can change across all the models in 24 hours with new data.

Tonight's ECM and its ensembles will be important I think, the last 2 ECM's and its ensembles have been very good. If we see the ECM and its ensembles trending towards a more GFS/UKMO outcome then that will certainly be a step back, if they stay solid it might be a good bet on that. But at the moment I would say pay little attention beyond say +144 on the OP runs. Even the ensembles at the moment I think should be used mainly to gauge uncertainty.

But still it remains I see no strong and consistent sign of a proper cold spell at the moment and I personally won't be getting excited until we have good op and ensemble support at day 5 or so, because we're a long way off that.

The GEFS 12z mean at 144 looks like the OP so don't be so quick to dismiss that.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Bobby