North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[Backtrack]

Found it, that looks fantastic for us guys.

[iand61]

I think to be fair IMBYism is inevitable ..I mean who cares what the weather is doing or possibly going to do 100 miles away.....as others have said the SE has the biggest population therefore the most net weather members so in any of the non regional threads there will be more posters form the se..........I certainly dont think think 'great chart' when i see snow potential for the south so why should they?

as for the trolling...its a numbers game..the more people posting the more chance of a troll or two...thats not the model thread ...its the internet...its the world......

I could say there is IMBism here sometimes with people saying 'great chart'.......when its a chart that will deliver snow to Rochdale, but not a chance for me....I dont resent people for that its natural

Good post Chris and I fully agree with the bit about imbyism in our own regional thread although thankfully we are a friendlier bunch and have one thing in common...we all live in an area which is crap for severe weather of any sort.

Summer, winter, rain, snow, gales, heat waves, we always seem to be on the edge of the action and I think it is that lack of expectation which stops the bickering often found in the SE regional, sorry model thread.

...still desperately hoping for snow here..but expecting rain....

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Nah man it's not Sunday evening that's concerning me, that's a nailed snow event.

your setting yourself up for a huge fall.

[clangers23]

Can I just say to any newer members that it is really worth investing in a netweather radar subscription - can do a £3.49 1 month only option. As any ppn gets closer you can track how clse it is to you in 5 min intervals, its type (rain, sleet or snow) by colour - see my pic below for the Dec 2010 event. You can zoom in to your precise area and ask it to show ground temps, wind dir, and more. I don't work for netweather btw, its just really good value esp in exciting synoptic set-ups.

Its here if you're interested: https://www.netweath...session_timeout

Thanks for this, I'm signing up.

As someone who has only really started following and trying to understand the models for the last 12 months or so, it's fascinating to see at what stage the MetO and other professional meteorological services actually make a call with the forecast. Snow appears to be one of the most difficult to predict accurately, the met office seem to be saying at the moment it's anyone's guess and looking at the models which seem to be all over the place with any convergence appearing to be over a very short time frame I can understand why.

[Snow free zone]

18 holes on Longridge fell this afternoon ..... it was Baltic !!

You could see the clouds buildng over the eastern fells and there was some hail around 3.30.

Meto warnings seem to be poorer for the more western fringes me included.

[Backtrack]

your setting yourself up for a huge fall.

If we can't have confidence in an event that has two weather warnings from the met office, the BBC forecasts looks brilliant, the atmospheric ingredients are ripe and even DIANNE OXBURY is on board. When that mild ramper is on board you know sh*ts about to go down.

[Jan]

I was just reading all your posts regarding the model thread which I have been following for three years now but never post. I've noticed that there seems to be a lot of tolling going on as well as IMBYism. The events on Monday are in the reliable timeframe now but I feel more confused than ever with all the opposing points of view. We normally do Ok in Bolton for snow but not too sure now. I'm beginning to think it's better to just avoid the model thread and just see what's there when you open the curtains on Monday morning!

Hi I've been on here since 2006 ( I did delete my profile but came back). I have been learning (teaching myself) to read the charts but wouldn't dare post in case I get laughed at, anyway I like to read what the more learned folk post and compare it with my own conclusion?

[chris78]

now things are getting closer...for this non chart reader could someone give me a rough idea about temps....its 3.1 here (warm back yard near city centre) when should I expect to see temps drop...for things to be looking good and on course for snow how low does it need to get tonight and what are we expecting tems to do throughout tomorrow...cheers

[Stephen_Mcr]

If we can't have confidence in an event that has two weather warnings from the met office, the BBC forecasts looks brilliant, the atmospheric ingredients are ripe and even DIANNE OXBURY is on board. When that mild ramper is on board you know sh*ts about to go down.

Dianne is taunting the North West. She's setting us up for excitement before slapping us round the chops with an 'at least we'll escape the worst of the weather' tomorrow afternoon.

[Jan]

If we can't have confidence in an event that has two weather warnings from the met office, the BBC forecasts looks brilliant, the atmospheric ingredients are ripe and even DIANNE OXBURY is on board. When that mild ramper is on board you know sh*ts about to go down.

Folk where panic buying bread and basics in our shop today!

[chris78]

If we can't have confidence in an event that has two weather warnings from the met office, the BBC forecasts looks brilliant, the atmospheric ingredients are ripe and even DIANNE OXBURY is on board. When that mild ramper is on board you know sh*ts about to go down.

lol thats a convincing argument about Oxbury...but seriously BT the signals are mixed for us...you know as well as I do we can get rain when it looks nailed on..and this doesnt........but heres hoping

Edited January 12, 2013 by chris78

[clangers23]

Dianne is taunting the North West. She's setting us up for excitement before slapping us round the chops with an 'at least we'll escape the worst of the weather' tomorrow afternoon.

She really can't cope with cold weather at all, I'm surprised she isn't in complete denial and insisting that the temperatures are in the 11-15 degrees range over the next couple of days, in fact she'd go as far as describing it as 'balmy' weather.

Edited January 12, 2013 by wrightc23

[Backtrack]

Temperature is starting to fall quickly now. We're down to 2.4C, breeze must of buggered off, was strong earlier.

[chris78]

Temperature is starting to fall quickly now. We're down to 2.4C, breeze must of buggered off, was strong earlier.

oh yeah here too...2.7 now it was 3.1 22 mins ago...that pretty fast!

[iand61]

Don't think even Diane Oxberry can deny snow is going to fall but I certainly hope that, on Monday evening after their digging out roads in the SE and we've had bugger all that she doesn't harp on about how we've escaped the worst and should be thankful.

I might just regret sticking a foot through our new telly.

[Backtrack]

oh yeah here too...2.7 now it was 3.1 22 mins ago...that pretty fast!

The colder air aloft is starting to make it's presence felt now, temp is dropping off pretty quickly, and just checked my wind reading, and the breeze is still there.

2.3C now, although it won't drop much below 1C ish with the breeze, lows of -2C predicted for tonight.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Think the FAX charts updated on meteociel, says 12 Jan 12Z, seems to look good for everyone, 528 line to the south west, no mild sector

but I still seem to feel the first front will dislodge the cold air, milder uppers as 2nd front moves in, first front guaranteed snow

[zEROwantsnow]

2.5C here now, and falling.

[Julian]

The colder air aloft is starting to make it's presence felt now, temp is dropping off pretty quickly, and just checked my wind reading, and the breeze is still there.

2.3C now, although it won't drop much below 1C ish with the breeze, lows of -2C predicted for tonight.

I'm down at 1.4 now.

I'm still not sure much can save me....

[loubie_4]

0.9 here at the mo

[Backtrack]

I'm down at 1.4 now.

I'm still not sure much can save me....

To the west of Manchester, we'll certainly get some initial snow from the first front, that's nailed. The second front is looking iffy, although I feel we'll do well out of this.

[Munchermark]

What kind of amount are we taking about? cms?

[snowdrifter]

2c at Blackpool Airport but feels like well below. Windchill is officially -1.9c atm. Can someone tell me what the 1730 forecast showed please. I just 'liked' TEITS's comment over on the model forum wishing those in the west something wintry - nice to see that.

[johnwirral]

Local model for the irish sea http://cobs.pol.ac.uk/modl/metfcst/airtemp/latest.php?im=13

[pip22]

I hope the winds will blow from the east on monday to take the edge of things, a strong windchill probably help to stay supportive for snow.