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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

I believe so, it has been the most consistent model, with the ECM and GFS alternating in having some fairly persistent errors at short range. Hard to call past midweek, even midweek is hard to call since it could correct either east or west (ideally west, in which case it could be -12C uppers instead of -9C, but if it's east we might struggle).

cheers.

there has to be something in the upgrade they made after 2010 with help in including strat developments into there model and i really hope they do keep leading the way as some of the charts they have been producing are really great

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GrangemouthBairn Apprentice

GrangemouthBairn

Posted
  • Location: Grangemouth, Central Scotland 5m ASL Weekday mornings and afternoons: Edinburgh
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold, snow, fog Summer: warm, sunny
  • Location: Grangemouth, Central Scotland 5m ASL Weekday mornings and afternoons: Edinburgh
Posted

Where does the main band of precipitation go at 16:15? http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

UKMO at T=72 would be awesome up here as well

yeah good for keeping the cold dont think there would be much snow about on that chart

What's it showing?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1021

UKMO 72h

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Allyw12 Contributor

Allyw12

Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
Posted

What's is the outlook for tonight & tommorow, do we still have a chance of snow as I've seen posts saying rain now :(

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Josh Taliesin Gibbens Newbie

Josh Taliesin Gibbens

Posted
Posted

This is the MAX temperatues for the afternoon from wednesday through to friday. (Taken from the 12Z GFS)

12_72_uk2mtmp.png?cb=381

12_96_uk2mtmp.png?cb=381

12_120_uk2mtmp.png?cb=381

Very impressive daytime maxima it has to be said. If this is to be believed then some places may struggle to get above -5c over a 3 day period, with the highlands possibly struggling even more.

Friday would also be very interesting! A big rain band moving in off the Atlanttic but hits the brick wall of cold air entrenched over us giving a very substantial snow event to the western half of Scotland. I think Glasgow would go into meltdown if this came off with almost 24 hours of snow!!

Gets going about 0300 on friday morning...

12_111_preciptype.png?cb=863

12 hours later ...

12_123_preciptype.png?cb=863

18 hours after it started .....

12_129_preciptype.png?cb=863

and 24 hours after it starts ....

12_135_preciptype.png?cb=863

Looking at these charts, you can almost draw the line down the country where the 'brick wall' of cold air meets the moisture coming in off the Atlantic. It just doesn't budge at all through-out the period.

Obviously its a loooooong way off yet but could be very interesting indeed for the westerners if it came off. The models have been hinting a snow event of some description for friday recently so it's definitely worth keeping a wee eye on. The only issue being that the models are capable of a total turn around on very short notice at the moment.

I know that's off in FI but if that verify's I'd be very happy :).

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

What's is the outlook for tonight & tommorow, do we still have a chance of snow as I've seen posts saying rain now sad.png

Tonight looks mostly dry here, the front tomorrow looks to pass through too quickly and therefore is mostly rain, however in behind there is the potential for evening snowfall from the northeast and then convection showers from the east through the day Tuesday into Wednesday.

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scottishandy Aficionado

scottishandy

Posted
  • Location: Dunblane, 108m asl
  • Location: Dunblane, 108m asl
Posted

So UKMO is now showing at 96 what ECM was showing in FI about 4 days ago, interesting. I do wonder what ECM will come up with tonight. @confused.com

Sherrifmuir was pleasant, continous light snow at or around 0C, building, boarding and sledging (oh and winter tyre useage). Pics later if I get round to it.

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Sunny Leith Community Regular

Sunny Leith

Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
Posted

Like a few others here, was out and about this afternoon. Took a drive from here in NE Embra to Balerno on the SW edge of town. Still some scraps of snow in Currie but you have to get to the top end of Balerno with one foot in Pentland/reservoirs before you're in what anyone here would consider worthwhile lying snow, 3 or 4 cms perhaps. But it was interesting driving back and noticing that Corstorphine Hill and Arthur's Seat are both nicely streaked with snow, enough to make them look pretty bloody wintry anyway. So looks like snow level in Embra and around about is approx 500 feet or so just now.

Not expecting anything at a coastal, urban or low level from the next band but looks like there could be more to come at a few hundred feet in rural locations especially. Reasonable hopes beyond that of something a bit easterly-ish although hardly a 2010 !

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November13 Community Regular

November13

Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
Posted

The BBC has rain for central Scotland overnight. However they haev it returning to snow in the morning. It's so marginal that I wouldn't rule snow out tonight. It was the surface temperatures and the slightness of the snow that made today a non event. Don't forget the ground was very wet and warm from the last 7 days of mild weather.This time last week it was 11c here! Once the ground cools down the snow might stick. This happens on the mountains in the winter where it takes a while for the ground to hold the snow until it cools.

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

GEM at 120hr looking similar to the UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

gemnh-0-144.png?12

then GEM at 144hr showing this from the northern hemisphere this time to show the high pressure and from this we would like to see that high pressure move to greenland but wont know if it did as this is as far as the GEM goes on the 12z

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

UKMO 120 hrs is an excellent chart, that would be a totally different ball game to this weekend. Much stronger easterly feed and very snowy. Going to look ramp-tastic on the fax later... one to save and track down to T+0.

Interesting drive today, anywhere with elevation saw the light sleet grow heavier, only proper snowfall visible into Dundee and the other side of Perth. As Doc states a bit of strange day, think the flow of cold just not enough energy to get things moving. Over to you ECM let's see you back up the UKMO. ECM/UKMO vs others would be a good shout.

RE Greenland tropospheric vortex, keep thinking this is over deepened on the models and funny feeling that at very short notice a block and raging Easterly / Northerly will appear within the next couple of days.

Of note UKMO cleaner with movement to phase 8 of MJO than the other models, ECM looking closer once it sniffs that pattern out reckon we will see some holy grail modelling.

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mardatha Accomplished

mardatha

Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh
Posted

Good couple inches here and no sign of a melt. Stopped snowing though.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Just seen it hell yes

The GFS has shown this big storm on the 19th/20th on quite a few runs, only noticed it as we're getting the keys for our new house that weekend :lol:

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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

I agree with Ally sometimes the MT is a nightmare for conflicting posts - varying outcomes mooted and it goes from yay to nay in a heartbeat!

I shall just sit (stuffed from the roast) and wait patiently (with a glass of wine) for a Pro Kilter to explain what the heck is going on.

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted

I'll explaing OTR it's a flecking mess but a cold mess that may deliver snow this week and a potential week of lampie viewing from tomorrow night for the rest of week ... There is a risk it could be quite dry and cold but that's always a risk....await the 18z and the expert kilts informing us :)

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