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Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Different to gfs, but not too different from Ukmo or ECM?

Gfs is too progressive with regards to jet placement and realignment of the PV and for that reason I dismiss it.

Yes fair comment i would say. The trend from GFS has been extending the cold spell every time it comes within say t100 and seems to be overestimating jet strength and underestimating southwards movement of this. The trend however from all models is increasing the amount of energy that goes under the block rather than over and there is a good chance i feel of us going from v cold to cool and then back to v cold again. GFS may well downgrade Fridays snow intensity and longetivity if it is underestimating the high to our NE. Annoying but then it will result in a longer cold spell.
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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

rofl.gif

Real fluffy snow now and starting to form a slushy deposit.

Mind you ground is too wet for it to stick. rofl.gif

and too warm as well.

Seems to be a pattern with this "trough" starts off as sleet then runs to snow,

Hoping when this passes through, further showers should be of snow.

Funny you should mention that rofl.gif

Temperature has dropped quite a bit since that heavier stuff passed, turned to snow for a time, it would be great if we have some further snow showers tonight. Temperature dropped from 2.7C to 1.3C

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

Looking forward to Friday and Saturdays possible snow event I'd hazard a guess that due to the angle of the trough which disrupts on Friday most of the precip will fall as snow for all of wales and remain snow as it slides sse into France.

Then we have Saturdays potential which if the trend continues with the jet slipping more se than east we could be on the verge of serious blizzards! BUT we need the trend to continue in the models tomorrow and then wales and most of the south west of the uk can join in the narnia landscape :)

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Just icy rain here still, hope its not like this Friday/Saturday!

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

Temperature has dropped quite a bit since that heavier stuff passed, turned to snow for a time, it would be great if we have some further snow showers tonight. Temperature dropped from 2.7C to 1.3C

I would think that further showers are now more likely to be of snow. Indeed if it wasn't for that system, i think we would have had more snow this evening.

Do you have wind gusts when the front went through, blowing a gale up here.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

I would think that further showers are now more likely to be of snow. Indeed if it wasn't for that system, i think we would have had more snow this evening.

Do you have wind gusts when the front went through, blowing a gale up here.

What system are you referring to?
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pyrotech Enthusiast

pyrotech

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted

Quote from Ian Fergusson

Having just read a fascinating multi-page UKMO analysis for Fri-Sat.... we're no clearer on outcome. In summary: frontal ppn extension NE on Fri v v uncertain albeit expected almost entirely as snow accompanied by Sig windchill; extended 4km models prog 10-20cm snow Dartmoor etc with falls up NE to Mendips but detail untrusted at this range. Of greater significance perhaps is more active frontal push later Sat, more meridionally orientated as per EC, with leading edge snow at least but again easterly extent into Sun uncertain. A truly fascinating and high stakes forecast challenge all round..

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

I would think that further showers are now more likely to be of snow. Indeed if it wasn't for that system, i think we would have had more snow this evening.

Do you have wind gusts when the front went through, blowing a gale up here.

Hopefully!

i don't record wind but it got very windy! i guess around 40mph? Temp steady now at 1.2C

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g1blet Newbie

g1blet

Posted
  • Location: Dunvant, Swansea
  • Location: Dunvant, Swansea
Posted

really hoping that the oh so common downgrades don't start to appear over the next day or so re weekend event, looks very interesting at the mo' :) 1982 again anyone??????

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Wales123098 Apprentice

Wales123098

Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
Posted

Quote from Ian Fergusson

Having just read a fascinating multi-page UKMO analysis for Fri-Sat.... we're no clearer on outcome. In summary: frontal ppn extension NE on Fri v v uncertain albeit expected almost entirely as snow accompanied by Sig windchill; extended 4km models prog 10-20cm snow Dartmoor etc with falls up NE to Mendips but detail untrusted at this range. Of greater significance perhaps is more active frontal push later Sat, more meridionally orientated as per EC, with leading edge snow at least but again easterly extent into Sun uncertain. A truly fascinating and high stakes forecast challenge all round..

Wow could you imagine 10- 20cm on Friday and then even more on Saturday. The snowspell could end next monday for all I care if we get that. Would be the biggest amount of snow I woulda seen in my 18 years.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

The "trough" tonight.

Ah ok, isnt it the trough that is causing the precipitation?
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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Wow could you imagine 10- 20cm on Friday and then even more on Saturday. The snowspell could end next monday for all I care if we get that. Would be the biggest amount of snow I woulda seen in my 18 years.

Weekend snowfall very uncertain, as Ian has quoted, track and NE extent of front open to question. If the models continue to push things further south, the far SW and some southern coasts of Wales may only be affected come the weekend with little atlantic influence at all apart from the south west. Dont be surprised to see the GFS downgrade its 24 hour snowfest as its too progressive for my liking. UKMO seem keen on a longer lasting cold spell with extent of frontal acitivity very uncertain. Hopefully its far enough NE to affect us in Wales, we deserve it ;)
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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

I must add, dry here and has been for a while, temp 3.9c so nothing of interest here tonight. Also, anyone else just loving model watching at the moment, so exciting i feel right now, the weekend coming up is going to reinforce this.

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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

I must add, dry here and has been for a while, temp 3.9c so nothing of interest here tonight. Also, anyone else just loving model watching at the moment, so exciting i feel right now, the weekend coming up is going to reinforce this.

Amazing how the temps have fallen further east, but still holding up at 3.6 here with a dp of 1.4. Still very windy, although less so than about an hour ago.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

Ah ok, isnt it the trough that is causing the precipitation?

Yes, but in these setups we tend to do quite well out of normal showers. So from a selfish point of view, would have preferred a normal showery flow.

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Wales123098 Apprentice

Wales123098

Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
Posted

Those showers heading straight for SE Valleys, Newport Cardiff

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Yes, but in these setups we tend to do quite well out of normal showers. So from a selfish point of view, would have preferred a normal showery flow.

Ok I guess i would like that type of flow too then ;), still learning about how troughs and other ways of precipitation can fall, so thanks for informing me. Edited by Panayiotis
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Wales123098 Apprentice

Wales123098

Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
Posted

Just been outside and it is very much an ice rink out there. Ground is glittery if that is the right word.be warned

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Those showers heading straight for SE Valleys, Newport Cardiff

They seem to be breaking up though? Also all the cars in my area have frozen, feel bad for my parents that they have to drive to work tomorrow in these kind of conditions! Edited by Panayiotis
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Wales123098 Apprentice

Wales123098

Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
Posted

They seem to be breaking up though? Also all the cars in my area have frozen, feel bad for my parents that they have to drive to work tomorrow in these kind of conditions!

I have to drive 20 miles. I think il stay home in the hope the ice has cleared up a bit by 10. Would suit me I got an exam weds and could do with the day at home revising!

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

I can see my pens dangled forming up now....lets see what happens through the night....I am having Friday off though so I can catch all developments and no work this week, bliss :)

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