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Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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SnowStorm(Jamie) Contributor

SnowStorm(Jamie)

Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
Posted

Precipitation elsewhere seems to be changing more wintry as it passes through.

Later in the evening temps will drop and on a showery flow, I would still expect my initial thoughts of a wintry showery+ mix. The precipitation is likely to further west later in the night as the winds changes more direction .

Considering we have already had snow here I cannot we why later in the night it would be rain .

The Steering flow is due to change indeed:

http://expert-images...011500_1418.gif

Going by current radar anything just over NW Wales/Just off the coast should make its way here then its whether its cold enough.

I see the GFS is again showing a stalling front for Friday, I'll wait until its showing up on NAE guidance. The front could just end up being further north (Largely rain/sleet) or further south (Dry/Cold) or work out somewhat as the GFS/ECM/UKMO currently shows (Snow).

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Big flakes within rain, now showing yay

Edit:Just snow now yay!

Edited by Panayiotis
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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

You at Uni there now?

No but my girlfriend is, am Staying down with here untill Wednesday then back to the beacons :) where there is proper snow :( snow falling now in Cardiff all be it very wet and light.

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matty lfc Rookie

matty lfc

Posted
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl
Posted

I still reckon Friday's event will be a fairly quick snow to rain scenario for us in Wales. There's an awful lot of activity in the Atlantic and I think we'll be on the wrong side of the front.The Midlands could get buried if it stalls!!

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Not loving this cold spell at all ! Rain showers, chilly, windy :(

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Showers more sleety here now, would be nice if they turned to snow though!

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Stevetynant Contributor

Stevetynant

Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
Posted

still snowing here (Penpedairheol, Rhymney Valley) a couple of mms perhaps- cars and the roads covered. Its not going to stop anyone going to work but its quite welcome

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Liam Ellis Contributor

Liam Ellis

Posted
  • Location: Deiniolen, north west Wales during lockdown
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Weather
  • Location: Deiniolen, north west Wales during lockdown
Posted

Was snowing here for about 2 hours, heavy snowflakes, and about 2cm settled on the ground.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

http://planet-watch....?t=37516&page=8

Patient chilli, it's early days yet.

The models are toying with an omega block and if formed it could provide a lengthy cold spell.

Later this week an undercutting low 'could' bring a bucket load if snow to the south, however this is not a certainty and not something i would currently bet my house on.

The Atlantic tries to get in again (ECM) and although it makes little progress, warmer air does flood in. Temperatures still average or below especially north of the midlands. However the cold is set to pounce back westwards, this could set up a v cold end to jan with more snow chances.

It's also worth noting how despite the easterly feed upper air temps have not been great across much of Europe. This chart http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1922.gif shows much better cold pooling to the NE, and should it spread SW as I think will lead to good snow opportunities towards the end of the month.

I think we've got to play the long game this time, and if it plays out as we like we will be a lot happier than the short sharp shock we are used to from the 90s and 00s

Cheers

Swww

Risk of significant snow Friday at around 70% for south of the midlands based on Ukmo/ECM/gem/gfs 12z output with ECM being best

Dingdong recheck your Temperatures -3 Berne -4 Warlsaw -3 Paris by wednesday Europe is cooling down.
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

wet sleety snow now, 1.1c/0.2c

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CRACKPOT Apprentice

CRACKPOT

Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Frost, Thunderstorms, Gales
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
Posted

still snowing here (Penpedairheol, Rhymney Valley) a couple of mms perhaps- cars and the roads covered. Its not going to stop anyone going to work but its quite welcome

Hi Steve,

HNY ! If this kept up - not much will be moving in morning - but it's just a passing heavy shower on the radar. Freeze on top tonight and you won't be getting out of your estate.

I just drove from Pontottyn to Gilfach and roads were horrendous - 10 min journey took me 25 mins!

JK

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Bafan Explorer

Bafan

Posted
  • Location: Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m asl
  • Location: Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m asl
Posted

Good job this wasn't in rush hour - there would be absolute chaos. The amount that's coming down is mental.

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Penfoel Contributor

Penfoel

Posted
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and hot sun
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
Posted

Hailing here.clapping.gif

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Wales123098 Apprentice

Wales123098

Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
Posted

Avoid Caerphilly Mountain!! Only went out to get something from McDonalds had to turn around! I was sliding everywhere. It's really coming down!

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dingdong Newbie

dingdong

Posted
  • Location: Guernsey ??
  • Location: Guernsey ??
Posted

I still reckon Friday's event will be a fairly quick snow to rain scenario for us in Wales. There's an awful lot of activity in the Atlantic and I think we'll be on the wrong side of the front.The Midlands could get buried if it stalls!!

What makes you think this? It looks marginal, yes, however the uppers associated with the low mean that if it starts as snow it will stay as snow (ECM:met 12z runs) if it starts as rain it is likely to turn to snow on the back edge.

I think milder air will push in Saturday evening and Sunday but a quick return to colder weather from Tuesday/Wednesday is more likely than not

DD

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Rain now mixing in with the snow flakes, however we only need the temp to drop further and it could well settle, and looking at the radar, it doesnt look like its going to stop.

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted (edited)

I still reckon Friday's event will be a fairly quick snow to rain scenario for us in Wales. There's an awful lot of activity in the Atlantic and I think we'll be on the wrong side of the front.The Midlands could get buried if it stalls!!

Possible but remember its not the strength of atlantic that is such an important factor here, the fact is every time the timeframe has come nearer, the models have overpowered the jet and more energy moves southwards underneath the block. All we need is more southwards energy than over the top and I think we have now have good model agreement for a good amount of energy to head south eastwards. This would deliver a good snowfall for most of Wales but it would be likely that it would turn less cold in the days after but you never know, the models had this cold spell ending mid week this week last week and every day the cold has been extended by a day. Edited by bradythemole
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