Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[snowy36]

It a snow storm in the valleys, pitty the ground is wet

Temp went down fron 3 to just 1.4 in ten minutes

Edited January 14, 2013 by snowy36

[dingdong]

Snow in caerphilly

[jenko]

hammering down now

[matty lfc]

Honestly,it's mental!!! 2-3 cm in an hour

[TonyH]

Crazy hail shower temp 4.1c dp 2.1c

[Daniel Miller]

Now turned to heavyish wet snow

[keithlucky]

Seems to be a more regular streamer setting up behind the trough? More showers moving into Snowdonia now, might be a little more snow to come later?

Yes still forming over the Irish sea still more to come Mike,

[TonyH]

It a snow storm in the valleys, pitty the ground is wet

Temp went down fron 3 to just 1.4 in ten minutes

Still settles if cold enough.

[benb]

Still snowing across much of Wales on Sat morning, 24hrs later...

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130114/18/108/prectypeuktopo.png

If that comes off, there's going to be chaos... and it's possibly only 80hrs away! (Still time for it all to go wrong though!)

[marclt]

Screen grab of forecast for Friday...

[swales]

Temp has risen here in South Carms, been on 3.8c for a while now. Mix of rain, hail and sleet. Quite surprised at the temps in the West 4-6c

[snowy36]

Still settles if cold enough.

Not expecting it to stick, just nice watching it fall. Up the road in Merthyr could have a fair bit by morning.

[bradymk]

Well the GFS is better than its 12z output for friday/sat with 24 hours or more of heavy snow for much of Wales before second band of precip moves in saturday bringing in milder air and rain. I suspect the second push its showing on Saturday wont be quite as easy as being portrayed on the GFS. Less cold likely end of the weekend and into next week however not mild by any means.

[jenko]

how do you upload pics

[Cymro]

Eirlaw trwm gwlyb iawn fan hyn ar gyrion Caerdydd

Heavy wet sleet here on the outskirts of Cardiff.

[matty lfc]

Easing off now but that was a very intense shower

[dingdong]

Cars and grass now white. Whoooop.

Will paste my thoughts that I posted on another site for coming 10 days now

[Jackfrost]

With the rotation of the low it seems likely that the remainder of the trough will swing across South Wales, keeping this heavy snow going for another hour or so.

Very heavy here, ground is white.

[TonyH]

Eirlaw trwm gwlyb iawn fan hyn ar gyrion Caerdydd

Heavy wet sleet here on the outskirts of Cardiff.

You at Uni there now?

[Bonjangle]

What a crazy half and hour , rain the heavy wet snow now back to light rain .

[dingdong]

http://planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?t=37516&page=8

Patient chilli, it's early days yet.

The models are toying with an omega block and if formed it could provide a lengthy cold spell.

Later this week an undercutting low 'could' bring a bucket load if snow to the south, however this is not a certainty and not something i would currently bet my house on.

The Atlantic tries to get in again (ECM) and although it makes little progress, warmer air does flood in. Temperatures still average or below especially north of the midlands. However the cold is set to pounce back westwards, this could set up a v cold end to jan with more snow chances.

It's also worth noting how despite the easterly feed upper air temps have not been great across much of Europe. This chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif shows much better cold pooling to the NE, and should it spread SW as I think will lead to good snow opportunities towards the end of the month.

I think we've got to play the long game this time, and if it plays out as we like we will be a lot happier than the short sharp shock we are used to from the 90s and 00s

Cheers

Swww

Risk of significant snow Friday at around 70% for south of the midlands based on Ukmo/ECM/gem/gfs 12z output with ECM being best

[keithlucky]

Well again fantastic GFS outputs again showing snow Friday snow Saturday plus -10 moving westwards across UK.Got to disagree Dingdong -3 Berne max -4Walsaw -3 Paris Wednesday max.pretty cold across central Europe and temps are falling.

Edited January 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[Snowmadsam]

Well the GFS is better than its 12z output for friday/sat with 24 hours or more of heavy snow for much of Wales before second band of precip moves in saturday bringing in milder air and rain. I suspect the second push its showing on Saturday wont be quite as easy as being portrayed on the GFS. Less cold likely end of the weekend and into next week however not mild by any means.

Hoping the GFS Saturday dosent happen... I dont want rain....just a few days of snow

[TonyH]

Sleeting now behind the main band, temp 1.8c, dp 0.5c, hopefully it will get even lower!

[bradymk]

Hoping the GFS Saturday dosent happen... I dont want rain....just a few days of snow

Hoping the GFS Saturday dosent happen... I dont want rain....just a few days of snow

Its not ideal but I am 70% sure GFS is way too progressive with this. I think it will turn less cold but later than GFS suggests, i would say sunday is the first less cold day and not Saturday, the euros are showing this and i expect the GFS to come into line, it certainly is sending more energy SE'wards every run now. But if GFS friday/friday night verifies, that would be 24 hours or more of very heavy snow with strong winds. Probably the most me/you at least would of seen in our lifetime in our area.