London & South East Regional Discussion

[BLUNT]

Dont think there will be any Snow in Billericay looking at it now Rain for me, lucky I didn't get the Sledge out and tell everybody in the neighbourhood we were going to get 15 inches of the stuff, just put it on my Facebook page so less egg on my face

[WillinGlossop]

Dark cloud to the north.... Sunny here at mo 3c..... Chilly but not cold..... Gfs moved our chances up a notch this morning, pretty heavy precip over us tomorrow evening could tip the balance with evaporative cooling in heavier precip helping to keep it snow, esp north kent if that chart is to be believed..... Nowcasting people! Could even gt a few flurries/ showers this afternoon.....

[fergieweather]

The shower stream coming into Kent later today and into Monday could generate 2-5 cm.... UKMO prognosis is a 30 percent probability of isolated 10 cm above 200 metres, but only if showers become aligned during this evening and tonight

[Jo S]

Good luck Jo!

Thank you Coast,

[Snowangel-MK]

I'd give up with models now - get your favourite radar open in a tab this afternoon and cuddle up warm next to a lamppost!

Great advice, although I've never met a warm cuddly lamppost....

...for heavens sakes don't kiss it though or you will get your lips frozen to it !

[SHM040519]

Are we back in the game tomorrow then? I'm in canterbury at work so can't really read all posts! Thanks

[Tamara]

If snow showers occur later today (perhaps) and then the NE'erly verifies from Tuesday to Thursday with snow showers then I am too bothered about what happens tomorrow. As it stands, it doesn't look like it is going to amount to much. The METO text outlook from Tuesday to Thurday on the website is but the computer models don't seem to fully agree on it and it have changed a bit since yesterday evening

However the general outlook seems to be really good for cold right out to next weekend. The UKMO model is excellent

Edited January 13, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Jason H]

The shower stream coming into Kent later today and into Monday could generate 2-5 cm.... UKMO prognosis is a 30 percent probability of isolated 10 cm above 200 metres, but only if showers become aligned during this evening and tonight

Interesting. Thanks for the update Ian.

[sarah7meme]

http://uksnowmap.com/mobile#/ seems to be a lot about

[tight isobar]

Word of the day MARGINAL, as susspected for our part of the uk, things are on a knifes edge át present.met,office slowly giving hints of poss upgrades, anywhere south of say london and things v,unclear of precip. In form of snow all needs watching with án eagle eye.

[Jo S]

The weather during the next couple of days needs watching very closely as there is the potential for significant snowfall in places, but the set up is very marginal. Today and tonight will bring a band of precipitation south east across the country, and that is likely to be mostly snow inland, with accumulations possible. There’ll be a drier interlude behind this initial spell of sleet and snow, but then a second band of precipitation will move down from the north west, and it’s this one which is problematic. There is some less cold air associated with it for a time, and so rather than snow, sleet or rain is more likely in places. It’s difficult to be confident about the details, but areas further east and north are less likely to it turn back to rain. In areas where it does turn to rain for a time it could then turn back to snow before clearing away. The precipitation chart for 15:00GMT Monday 14th January below gives an idea of the general picture, but with things being so marginal it’s still possible that other factors could kick in (e.g. evaporative cooling if the precipitation is intense enough) and keep more of the precipitation as snow. It’s looking like a messy Monday for sure.

Latest forecast charts on TheWeatherOutlook

Is this about right

[Staffordshire]

Guess there is some squeaky bums in here, same as us in W Mids, just wishing you all good luck!

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

showers in the north sea

[coldtoes]

Hubby just back from his bike ride. Snowed briefly in Southend

[Mike Storm]

Few snow grains here at Hadlow this morning.

[randomwalk]

http://modeles.meteo.../gfs-2-36.png?6

back in the game

if you look at the 0.5 resolution it shows practically all rain in the south unfortunately -hopefully this is less reliable than the main model but that does seem counterintuitive?

[manutdmatt1986]

The shower stream coming into Kent later today and into Monday could generate 2-5 cm.... UKMO prognosis is a 30 percent probability of isolated 10 cm above 200 metres, but only if showers become aligned during this evening and tonight

Across the far South East of Kent presumably, Ian?

[Snow Queen one]

Just started to snow lightly here. Tiny grains. My NMM high res charts do not look too good for my area Mon into Tues now and I fear I am running out of time for an upgrade. The NW radar shows no PNN over me at all I think there is a prob with it. So I can't even watch to see how other fair in this setup. Good luck guys and lets just hope for some more snow later on in the week.

[jright35]

Few flakes falling here in Sittingbourne at mo. very dark sky

[manutdmatt1986]

lol you truly are a miserable bugger, but good entertainment none the less

At least if I do see snow I'll be pleasantly surprised

[stainesbloke]

Looks like a great week to come for coldies, tomorrow on a knife edge but really cold after that with possible troughs moving in from the N Sea across our region Here's hoping!

[Sharkymorg]

Will it or won't it....that's the question. I'm no expert but having just let the cat out, it's clearly just not cold enough....

[Snow Queen one]

Few snow grains here at Hadlow this morning.

My hubby used to live in Hadlow. Church street.

Snow stopped now lol well thats it for me for today I saw snow I am happy.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Snow Queen one

[Stamford Bobby]

First band of ppn arriving in the wee hours should hopefully be snow, though probably light in nature - but enough for a dusting.

Very marginal for the second band of precipitation moving down tomorrow afternoon/evening - GFS suggests DPs wrong side of 0C for much of the SE, as we see the warm sector in close proximity sliding SE mixing in less cold air/higher DPs:

... though 0C line following the ppn, so perhaps some back edge snow.

NAE at Monday 18z:

Would say North Home Counties best chance for snow at lower levels, Chilterns and Downs likely to see snow too.

However, very marginal, so heavy ppn/evaporative cooling could tip the balance in favour of snow to lower levels ... usual case of nowcasting!

Good post Nick, shows that we shouldn't get too excited over 'upgrades' nor disheartened over 'downgrades'. Nowcasting word of the day today/tomorrow! Hoping my reasonable elevation (127m) and proximity to the Chilterns will help!

P.s. just bought NW Extra radar, well worth a few quid for the weather we have coming up over the next few weeks.

[stainesbloke]

I'm expecting rain tomorrow and then to miss out on the snow showers from Tuesday onwards as they hug the coast. If I see any snow at all it will be a bonus.

I consider seeing any snow at all in the UK a bonus, so this week looks great. Remember 2 weeks ago when it just looked zonal and mild for weeks on end?