Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

[snow drift]

UKMO is very interesting in the short term but for me ECM is great. Look at the cold flooding in from the NE towards us. Way out in time but would love to see this trend continue. ECM has been hinting at this recently.

Edited January 14, 2013 by snow drift

[Rob K]

Even out to 240 ECM still holding the block and sending the jet underneath

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I don't see a quick return to mildness from that run.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Still to early to call it but looking like a breakdown back to cyclonic westerlies during the weekend. GFS and ECM both modelling it on their respective 0z:

At T168 ECM: GFS:

The models seem to be moving into a more reliable mode. UKMO still go with the undercut and it will be interesting to see if the human element also thinks it is unlikely as they did last night. Those lows look very powerful and the block may need a bit of luck to repel them.

Its a pivot point for the rest of January. Without an undercut we will probably have a week or so of cool/cold zonal before the second strat warming can kill the PV off the Eastern Seaboard. This will continue to pump energy into the Atlantic and remain a spoiler for the foreseeable until it dissipates or sinks.

ECM at T216 has weak Northern heights and a strong westerly flow:

I'm afraid you have missed out the most important ECM chart at 120 , I don't no why you have? This shows that the block is stronger than first thought , and it's very similar to the ukmo , and the gfs following suit , when the first low on fri undercuts , it will strengthen the block and may force more energy southeast on the second low , by the way I believe the models are really over estimating the low pressures.

As soon as they lose strength they will sink south much easier.

[Great Plum]

Even out to 240 ECM still holding the block and sending the jet underneath

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I don't see a quick return to mildness from that run.

Yes, it's ludicrous FI but also look at the cold uppers from the NE heading this way...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

[rory o gorman]

i agree i think there is a overpowering of the atlantic by most of the models . The chances of an undercut are growing IMO.

[Rob K]

Sorry guys I'm confused. To me the undercut looks like the atlantic powering back in from the west. How is this a good output? Just don't get it!

If the block holds firm to the north then the UK is on the northern side of the incoming low, forcing cold easterlies or south easterlies across us. If the lows go over the top of a sinking high, we are in the southern side of the low and get milder westerlies.

Undercutting Atlantic lows are as rare as hen's teeth but are responsible for many of the biggest UK blizzards of the past.

[snowking]

This is what piers corbyn said today...

Extreme cold, blizzards and snow drifts "many feet deep" to bring chaos to England and Wales for at least three weeks - into early Feb

"Our solar-lunar based forecast predicted generally increasingly cold and very cold weather from around Sat 12th Jan for Britain and Ireland. Next, waves of major Arctic blasts and blizzards with many feet of drifting snow are likely in places from around 20th with another major blizzardy blast around the begining of February.

"England and Wales including the South are likely to get the deepest snow, while Scotland and Northern parts of Ireland will probably be very cold rather than very snowy. Some of the SouthWest of Britain and Ireland will probably get rain rather than snow at times.

Pretty stunning output once again....given the recent (and MANY past) examples of the GFS struggling to manage the energy budget in the atlantic against the block to our NE, i'm more inclined to follow the euro's on this, and I know a fair few of the ECM Ens had such a scenario yesterday too

SK

[snowdrifter]

Thanks Rob much appreciated mate.

[Southern Storm]

Sorry guys I'm confused. To me the undercut looks like the atlantic powering back in from the west. How is this a good output? Just don't get it!

I think people are just commenting on the trend more than anything, it would only take

A correction south and for the Scandinavian high to be more of a player for things to get very interesting.

I still firmly believe that as we approach the time frame in question, the models will start taking into account

The stratospheric warming, as I think they will be underestimating heights .

Time will tell!

[Rob K]

GFS Ensemble mean at 144 looks rather like UKMO too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

Undercutting looks the new favourite!

[karlos1983]

GFS Ensemble mean at 144 looks rather like UKMO too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

Undercutting looks the new favourite!

Looked through all the Pertubations at +144, majority look very promising, sorry can't post graphics as I'm on iOS

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I'm afraid some of you cant read charts. The 00z output is stunning if you want deep snow in the uk. Clearly it cant snow everywhere. Judging by the latitude of the jet, there could be some dodgy periods in this thread over the next few days.

People pick charts and manipulate one chart and base a complete forecast on that

[snow drift]

No wonder people are confused. These latest charts should have this place buzzing. I guess most are in bed or looking out the window at snow.

[snowdrifter]

I wish people who cannot read charts would not comment as if they can, the confusion it causes ruins the thread.

This mornings charts are great if you like cold and snow.

Hi Ramp did you mean my v innocent qn asking for some clarification? Just wasn't sure thats all.

[TEITS]

Well yet again the ECM is changing its mind and backing towards the UKMO. This isn't surprising to me and in my opinion the Met O played it safe last night with the fax charts due to the 12Z UKMO being so different to the ECM. Im not being critical of the Met O because many of us would of done the same thing.

The GFS is looking very lonely at +144 but to be honest it should be used to it by now!

Overall stunning output yet again.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm afraid you have missed out the most important ECM chart at 120 , I don't no why you have? This shows that the block is stronger than first thought , and it's very similar to the ukmo , and the gfs following suit , when the first low on fri undercuts , it will strengthen the block and may force more energy southeast on the second low , by the way I believe the models are really over estimating the low pressures.

As soon as they lose strength they will sink south much easier.

For me post of the morning so far. Yes the poster you respond to has conveniently isolated a single chart and then described it incorrectly, there is no 'strong' westerly flow on the ECM, complete tosh.SSIB, that sentence re the first undercut, I agree with you if this happens then it does serve to strengthen the block and 'encourage further undercutting' so as far as I'm concerned UKMO could be onto a coo here. ECM hinted last night and moves more towards the UKMO again. Look no further than t96 as that is still FI, maybe nearer. UKMO ECM getting into tune. BFTP

[lorenzo]

Very interesting 00z output, the first thing that caught the eye was the GFS maintaining the trend of the Jet from the 18z last night, less flat, and heading south. Perfect, just you keep figuring that out GFS and give us our undercut.

UKMO is beautiful again, so here it is from meteo and wetter, 120 to 144 the trough puts on the brakes and spawns another undercutting shortwave mainatining the snow conveyor into the UK.

ECM 120 to compare , another strong Easterly feed, impressive cold block on the ECM right out until day 10.

The cold continues..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

People pick charts and manipulate one chart and base a complete forecast on that

Let's clarify for folks. ECM output is very good and IMPROVING and moving more towards the UKMO [which I needed to see]. UKMO is very very good. BFTP

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

For me post of the morning so far. Yes the poster you respond to has conveniently isolated a single chart and then described it incorrectly, there is no 'strong' westerly flow on the ECM, complete tosh.SSIB, that sentence re the first undercut, I agree with you if this happens then it does serve to strengthen the block and 'encourage further undercutting' so as far as I'm concerned UKMO could be onto a coo here. ECM hinted last night and moves more towards the UKMO again. Look no further than t96 as that is still FI, maybe nearer. UKMO ECM getting into tune. BFTP

Thanks BFTP , just trying to say it how it is , I'm not hope casting , I'm forecasting !!!

[Timmytour]

i started going through the GFS and thought it was heading for an under cut, only for it to start spinning the lows around in the Atlantic.

To be honest...at T165 even the Atlantic looks shocked and wide-mouthed at the way it's being modelled

[Jimmyh]

I wish people who cannot read charts would not comment as if they can, the confusion it causes ruins the thread.

This mornings charts are great if you like cold and snow.

Have to take u up on this. It is the model thread and was once before snow arrives a place to learn but some barbed comment put inexperienced posters off commenting on what they see because of comments like this. Me included sorry mods delete if feel the need

[TEITS]

Fax at +84 shows the change clearly.

Flick between this and last nights +96 and if some don't know where to look then check out the LP W of Ireland in the Atlantic and note how much further S this is than the +96.

[johnholmes]

Let's clarify for folks. ECM output is very good and IMPROVING and moving more towards the UKMO [which I needed to see]. UKMO is very very good. BFTP

and some charts explaining what is good really would improve your post and make for a fuller understanding of charts for newcomers Fred-so PLEASE can we have charts when you comment-thanks?

[That ECM]

Fantastic output and with interest right now for some, interest moving to later in the week and for me huge interest later down the line (ECM) what a time to be viewing the output. The down beat comments have IMBY ring to them. Look at it from the bigger picture point of view and it is wonderful. December was not that long ago and it was t300 plus when there was something of interest for coldies.

Hi JH, not always able to post a chart due to the device I am using or more probably my lack of skill in knowing how to.

Edited January 14, 2013 by That ECM

[johnholmes]

I have to say comments like 'people cannot read charts' 'should not comment' etc are really unfair on folk trying to learn. For ANYONE whatever your experience PLEASE post a chart when you make comment. Folk can then see what you are saying with the chart you are using.

Its not difficult surely to do this, or post a link to the chart you are commenting on.

That helps us all then

thanks