Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

[Ian Suffolk]

GFS 00z very similar to 18z. Looks like there is still to much energy heading east unfortunately.

UKMO imminent, hopefully it will throw us a lifeline and follow on from that stellar 12z.

[Matty M]

never seen the ukm crawl out so slowly so late! not happy!

as early as 48hrs you can see the modification towards GFS of snop around Iceland and in Atlantic.

still excellant 96 and 120hr charts but at this point, unreliable.

[Wilxy]

UKMO went a bit mad at the end didn't seem right for that low to undercut again, not as good as last run but still keeping that trend.

[Man With Beard]

UKMO goes same way as yesterday's T12 - massive undercut T96-T144, heavy snow for all most likely.

[Jupiters Winter]

UKMO still undercutting but After T72 pattern seems unreliable. Never the less two in a row for the UKMO..

[Wilxy]

UKMO still undercutting but After T72 pattern seems unreliable. Never the less two in a row for the UKMO..

Yes i can see where Ian F was coming from seems unrealistic to me.

[Zenarcher]

GFS 144h

NOGAPS 144h

UKMO 144h

Both the UKMO and NOGAPS undercut while the GFS doesn't interesting and GEM will be out shortly wonder what it will do.

[SMU]

Morning All-

The UKMO is VERY special again at the day 4/5 range-

When searching the archives if you was to load up this chart it would be very special...

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011400/UN120-21.GIF?14-05

very low heights- deep cold easterly winds & heavy snow in the SW spreading ENE....

S

[Ali1977]

If GEM undercuts also it will be interesting to see what ECM does, if that follows then a definate trend being set

Whats the chance of this happening do you think?

Morning All-

The UKMO is VERY special again at the day 4/5 range-

When searching the archives if you was to load up this chart it would be very special...

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?14-05

very low heights- deep cold easterly winds & heavy snow in the SW spreading ENE....

S

[Jezzer]

Morning All-

The UKMO is VERY special again at the day 4/5 range-

When searching the archives if you was to load up this chart it would be very special...

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?14-05

very low heights- deep cold easterly winds & heavy snow in the SW spreading ENE....

S

and the GFS shows this for the same time

[SMU]

Looks perhaps 6/10 at the moment- UKMO been very consistent- & as we have seen the GFS & ECM have followed suit-

S

[Ali1977]

GEFS Ens looking to go with an undercut of some type...I think!!!

[rory o gorman]

Preturbation 1 would do very nicely indeed

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles are in fact a massive upgrade for undercutting probability and much colder in hi res than the 18z. Actually the Op virtually only has support from the control for having so little disruption of energy SE. I expect GFS to be fully on board with the undercut this evening and ECM perhaps as early as this morning. If they do then things will become very exciting because the possibility of some huge snowfalls exist later this week into next weekend.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Have a feeling the 120z ECM is gonna undercut big style.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Have a feeling the 120z ECM is gonna undercut big style.

Guys big undercut on the ECM 120

[Great Plum]

ECM 120 is very interesting...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

Undercutting and -10 air into east Anglia!

[Ice Day]

One word - Wow!

[cooling climate]

Some of the posts on here very confusing this morning, UKMO solid again and fantastic

for cold and snow.ECM now coming on board and within a couple of days I bet we will

see a different t168 chart from what it is showing now.

The GFS moving slowly in the right direction with a couple of more runs (excluding the

06z perhaps) although the ens seem to have grasped the situation.

Could very well be a very snowy end to the week with no end in sight to the cold weather.

Edited January 14, 2013 by cooling climate

[Jason M]

ECM brings quick breakdown after 144 but at that range it doesn't matter.

Very suprised at METO which is a near carbon copy of last night. GFS ensembles are huge upgrade as a good few drag the high out of Scandi to a more northerly position.

ECM moving towards METO in its mid range too.

Very good this morning overall.

Jason

[snow drift]

Some of the posts on here very confusing this morning, UKMO solid again and fantastic

for cold and snow.ECM now coming on board and within a couple of days I bet we will

see a different t168 chart from what it is showing now.

The GFS moving slowly in the right direction with a couple of more runs (excluding the

06z perhaps) although the ens seem to have grasped the situation.

Could very well be a very snowy end to the week with no end in sight to the cold weather.

Agree with you and would add at T192 look at the PV. Are we starting to see the SSW be modeled correctly and the effects on the PV. This could open up for an attack from the NE as GP has suggested for awhile.

Edited January 14, 2013 by snow drift

[IDO]

Still to early to call it but looking like a breakdown back to cyclonic westerlies during the weekend. GFS and ECM both modelling it on their respective 0z:

At T168 ECM: GFS:

The models seem to be moving into a more reliable mode. UKMO still go with the undercut and it will be interesting to see if the human element also thinks it is unlikely as they did last night. Those lows look very powerful and the block may need a bit of luck to repel them.

Its a pivot point for the rest of January. Without an undercut we will probably have a week or so of cool/cold zonal before the second strat warming can kill the PV off the Eastern Seaboard. This will continue to pump energy into the Atlantic and remain a spoiler for the foreseeable until it dissipates or sinks.

ECM at T216 has weak Northern heights and a strong westerly flow:

Edited January 14, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[mountain shadow]

GFS ops the only dissenter for the undercut

I expect Exeter will change there forecasts for the end of the week

Stunning output this morning, note the ECM delaying the return of the Atlantic again

Edited January 14, 2013 by mountain shadow

[Rob K]

Still to early to call it but looking like a breakdown back to cyclonic westerlies during the weekend. GFS and ECM both modelling it on their respective 0z:

At T168 ECM: GFS:

Not very similar those two charts. ECM maintains a block to the north sending energy southeast. Not a total undercut but not at all a GFS scenario.

In any case I can't imagine that low being as ridiculously deep as modelled.

[snowdrifter]

Sorry guys I'm confused. To me the undercut looks like the atlantic powering back in from the west. How is this a good output? Just don't get it!

Edited January 14, 2013 by snowdrifter