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Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Adam lufc Contributor

Adam lufc

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

Bbc still say significant snow for us but don't show it anymore on there maps. It seems to me that they admit defeat but are only slowly backing away from there snowiest originally forecasted.

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tugster31 Newbie

tugster31

Posted
  • Location: nr Spalding. South Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: nr Spalding. South Lincolnshire
Posted

TEITS posted this on the model outlook forum, looks a bit better from an IMBY perspective

13011818_1706.gif

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Lakes Tom Rookie

Lakes Tom

Posted
  • Location: Pickering, N Yorks.
  • Location: Pickering, N Yorks.
Posted

TEITS posted this on the model outlook forum, looks a bit better from an IMBY perspective

13011818_1706.gif

This ties in nicely with the GFS 06Z, showing the low to be slightly more progressive allowing Yorkshire to get in on the action. This is actually quite a big upgrade compared to the 0Zs which showed the front stalling and petering out South and West of Yorkshire!

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Adam lufc Contributor

Adam lufc

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

Snow no longer shown for the Yorkshire region like it was yesterday on BBC weather forecast. :(

I know. And yet the snow still gets Far East further south. But the west yorks snow shield in full swing!

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Charts still look decent for here, so I'm not sure why the BBC forecasts are changing so much.

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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

Anybody panicking from the bbc forecast, take a look at the models. By this aft I'm sure the bbc will show the front getting further east. I find the mountain area forecasts from the meto to be a bit more honest and they give a better idea of the thoughts of the forecasters. The aviation tafs are very reliable too. Showing light snow for leeds bradford in the early hours. Don't just rely on what u see from the graphics, there's a reason they aren't giving much detail about friday night.

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CasMan Contributor

CasMan

Posted
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
Posted

Snow no longer shown for the Yorkshire region like it was yesterday on BBC weather forecast. sad.png

Would that be because it takes ages to update and will be based on the downgrade on last nights charts, and haven't taken into account the recent upgrade for yorkshire on the most recent charts?

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)

The GFS 06Z run certainly tones up our snow prospects relative to the 00Z, putting us in the firing line for frontal snow tomorrow (except perhaps for eastern coastal areas) and then bringing in a larger supply of snow showers off the North Sea through to next Tuesday due to a colder and more unstable easterly flow, especially affecting the same coastal areas that are progged to get relatively little snow tomorrow.

The GFS 00Z setup for early next week was more marginal and more likely to be dry and cloudy (as opposed to bringing sunshine and snow showers) in between frontal systems due to modification from the SE.

However the UKMO/ECMWF outputs both look like they would bring rather more significant snowfall, from both fronts and North Sea convection, than the GFS, and they also keep cold and snowy weather going through to at least the end of next week.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Mark Bayley Community Regular

Mark Bayley

Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
Posted (edited)

Still looks like tomorrows band will reach us, but like my thoughts yesterday, it will be mainly light and patchy. Still, the NAE and NMM give 2-5cm quite widely across our region, and given that it seems it will stall and fizzle out over us then its certainly possible. Plenty more snow opportunities over the coming days, from further fronts and snow showers. Just have a scan through the GEM precipitation charts >

http://www.meteociel...ode=2&archive=0

TWS, given the good consistency of the UKMO, and the GEM, i would probably side with them. Plus the ECM looks good into the medium term. GFS seems rather on its on again!

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Thedemoncleaner Newbie

Thedemoncleaner

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Anybody panicking from the bbc forecast, take a look at the models. By this aft I'm sure the bbc will show the front getting further east. I find the mountain area forecasts from the meto to be a bit more honest and they give a better idea of the thoughts of the forecasters. The aviation tafs are very reliable too. Showing light snow for leeds bradford in the early hours. Don't just rely on what u see from the graphics, there's a reason they aren't giving much detail about friday night.

The BBC forecast seems to run up to about 6pm then they skip straight to saturday. Very strange. The Met and BBC on line forecasts both have light snow from early evening Friday right through to Monday. I suspect it will all change again tonight and into tomorrow any way so fingers crossed we get a hit

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cowdog Enthusiast

cowdog

Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
Posted

The Met and BBC on line forecasts both have light snow from early evening Friday right through to Monday. I suspect it will all change again tonight and into tomorrow any way so fingers crossed we get a hit

Can trump you on that the Met is current saying for my location Snow from 1800 Thursday through to the end of Monday when it ends forecasting. It will be VERY interesting if that pays off even with it being light snow.

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Skeggy Winter Storm Contributor

Skeggy Winter Storm

Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
Posted

Just seen bbc weather it shows the main band in west then it moves south through south london then it seems to turn and moves up nw through east anglia onto lincolnshire then snow showers sat with a biting easterly wind

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I cannot stress this enough but at such a close range (48 hours) the Met Office will not be paying a blind bit of difference to the normal model runs, they will be going with the high resolution outputs (NMM, NME, UKV).

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CasMan Contributor

CasMan

Posted
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
Posted

06Z NMM which comes out at 11am has got snow reaching western parts of Yorkshire by 2pm tomorrow and staying over the region all day in comparison with the 00Z NMM which never really reached Yorkshire, this ties in with the latest GFS eastwards movement.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

I cannot stress this enough but at such a close range (48 hours) the Met Office will not be paying a blind bit of difference to the normal model runs, they will be going with the high resolution outputs (NMM, NME, UKV).

True, but that doesn't mean they are going to be correct. I've been told that NMM underplays totals quite a bit, and if it came off, snow would not even make it to the NW of England.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

True, but that doesn't mean they are going to be correct. I've been told that NMM underplays totals quite a bit, and if it came off, snow would not even make it to the NW of England.

Casman just said that the update is a positive one.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Yeah my comment was based on the 00z, the 06z has the band much stronger, so let's see how it progresses.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Yeah my comment was based on the 00z, the 06z has the band much stronger, so let's see how it progresses.

Got the chart?

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

They're available here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

They cut off northern England but it gives you a general idea.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

NMM has the band struggling to advance eastwards.

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