Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

[waynetheweatherman]

On the model thread someone put some charts that showed it would bring snow monday and tuesday with strong winds.

[Craigers]

Why the like? Please explain to a dumb novice

that occlusion front is over yorkshire on saturday which is the band of snow

[Lincstim]

Don't think they are saying about making sense I suspect a little bit of sarcasm in the post.

Apologies if I am wrong ( I usually am) ask the wife!!!

Just a note to say I will try and get a photo of our cooling tower at work covered in icicles.

Looks amazing

Edited January 16, 2013 by Lincstim

[Adam lufc]

On the model thread someone put some charts that showed it would bring snow monday and tuesday with strong winds.

Cheers dude

[yorkieblade]

Looks like a deepening low for Monday as well as well as the Friday event .....very windy and loads of more snow potential for Mon/Tues also

[yorkieblade]

BTW not sure if anyone watched Paul Hudsons weather forecast - Look North ...thought he underplayed the potential for our region , I suppose he has to tread carefully at the moment ...he will prob sharpen up his Friday forecast more tomorrow evening.

I generally like Paul Hudsons forecast as he dos'nt ramp or get too excited , unlike some !

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Maybe a few snow showers ahead of the front tomorrow night for the West of our region as per the latest NAE;

It does however look like the front is further West than on the 12z though as suggested in the model thread so snow totals by the end of Friday look lower than projected earlier today at present. Still time for change though.

[ITSY]

Indeed. the 18Z backs the front even further to the West with even the West (and South) of our region seeing very little in the way of (heavy) snowfall. Latest TV forecasts (BBC) continue to show it heading NEwards and staying in 'situ' during Saturday...GFS heavily disagrees. Will be up in the air for the next couple of runs, though by this time tomorrow we will know I imagine.

On the Sun-Tues 'event' the 18Z GFS run has the band breaking up over Ireland, ala 12Z.

Back on the Fri/Sat event, NOGAPS destroys the PPN band over Wales.

Edited January 16, 2013 by ITSY

[Adam lufc]

Cheers gfs. I can really see this being yet again another non event. I could cry. Are the meto n bbc really that wrong. Please not.

[Harsh Climate]

Hope the gfs is wrong, last run was a horror show regarding fridays snow! The net weathers NNM model (if that's what its called..?) is the one to keep an eye on.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[LeeSnowFan]

Metoffice just tweeted this picture 1 minute ago they are still confident for friday

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17010-large/

[Cold Winter]

Summary of latest model info:

• GFS pushes snow further west so it only affects the far west of our region and even then is probably mostly light.
  
• NAE goes up to 48 hours (6pm Friday) and appears to be showing the snow pulling away to the southeast and losing intensity as it does so.
  

Awaiting latest FAX charts for the Met Office's interpretation of what they think will happen. Not looking too good for our region based on this run, but that could all change again by morning.

NAE at 6pm Friday:

GFS at 6pm Friday:

[Onetwo07]

Darn it! Suppose we were spoiled in 2010 so that's probably us done for the next decade! On the plus side, my chances of getting from Wakey back to Sheffield on Friday after work have just improved!

[ITSY]

NAE, WWN (or something like that), NOGAPS and GFS dramatically downgrade the PPN for all of the East and North - and indeed, the home counties and most of wales would likely 'only' see 5-10cms unlike the 30 progged this time last night.

national downgrade, although a stronger Easterly could mean greater convection after

[Adam lufc]

the charts won't change for the better now. Less chance of anything. Hope it downgrades for west Pennines n midlands too if we're to have nothing.

[cfallon]

the charts won't change for the better now. Less chance of anything. Hope it downgrades for west Pennines n midlands too if we're to have nothing.

What utter crap! Sorry but the 18z were a downgrade last night and the 6z upgraded! Don't base the pub run as fact!

[Cold Winter]

the charts won't change for the better now. Less chance of anything. Hope it downgrades for west Pennines n midlands too if we're to have nothing.

This is one of the few situations where people in the southwest especially get to see snow - would be a bit selfish to deny them it just because we're not getting any! We're in a much better position for convection off the North Sea which often can deliver similar totals to frontal systems.

[allenar]

Isn't the 18z known as the pub run for a reason

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

On the plus side, the latest GFS run shows a strengthening Easterly wind on Saturday which should blow some heavy snow showers right across our region as the low pulls away South and the colder uppers filter in.

[jon86]

the charts won't change for the better now. Less chance of anything. Hope it downgrades for west Pennines n midlands too if we're to have nothing.

. Chill out the nae and gfs have been as useless as a chocolate fireguard recently, it might have been pushed 50 miles east in the morning. Also just because we might not get anything why does it mean that those in the west (who never do that well snow wise) shouldn't?

[Just Before Dawn]

the charts won't change for the better now. Less chance of anything. Hope it downgrades for west Pennines n midlands too if we're to have nothing.

That's harsh!

Some of the charts - UKMO for example, keep the band intact across the whole region, and even if the band does downgrade, it's one element of a complex situation - the GFS for example generates a stronger easterly flow, so better convection penetrating further inland.

[Mark Bayley]

I would suggest the GFS may have lost it with regards to the medium term, especially when compared to the UKMO, ECM and GEM. Its very isolated. I think the best chance of snowfall for our region will come from the east, in the form of snow showers (i.e UKMO and ECM for early next week).

Edited January 16, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[chrisb1357]

Which GFS run is the best one that as I am a bit confused

[sunny scunny]

Down to -7c here now

[Adam lufc]

I Knw they Dnt get much but things are meant to average out therefore them getting a mega dumping and us nothing isn't exactly averaging out is it. Yes will be nice to see the south west get some. But the chances of these Synoptics showing up again soon are unlikely so would be nice if these so called sliders actually gave us something. The window of snow showers would not be long at all. And remember you folks in the east already have a big covering unlike here!