Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

[Mark Bayley]

Which GFS run is the best one that as I am a bit confused

Well the 6z seems to have been the poorest (recently) tending to be the most progressive. The 12z and 0z seem to be less. Thats the problem with the GFS, it seems desperate to try and power the Atlantic against the block and push it away, rather than undercut like the ECM et.al. Not that its wrong, but i would consider it low based upon the teleconnections and other model output!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[Cold Winter]

And remember you folks in the east already have a big covering unlike here!

We don't in York! Got a few small patches here and there but otherwise there's no snow to be seen.

[Adam lufc]

Did any of you guys see the latest bbc forecast on 1 at 10.30! Someone's going to have egg on there face but who?? Sniw moving erratically east over us stalling on Saturday with the likely hood of the amber warning being extended further east and south!! Which info are they getting this from! Surely they've seen the latest gfs nae before they put this out! That forecast was perfect for our region- if only!!

[Zak 92]

Did any of you guys see the latest bbc forecast on 1 at 10.30! Someone's going to have egg on there face but who?? Sniw moving erratically east over us stalling on Saturday with the likely hood of the amber warning being extended further east and south!! Which info are they getting this from! Surely they've seen the latest gfs nae before they put this out! That forecast was perfect for our region- if only!!

Hope they know something we dont

Anyway i think people should calm down and stop stressing until tomorrow night at least

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Minus 6 here brrrrrr ⛄⛄â„â„â„

[Cold Winter]

BBC forecast at 10.35 doesn't include the latest model data unfortunately.

[Adam lufc]

Everybody on here seriously now do you see why I get so frustrated! Bbc forecast above-fantastic and itv calendar weather just promised us blizzards drifting and 25cm on the tops on Friday for the whole region!! Both forecasts were bullish and full of it. So now if this doesn't happen how can one say not to be disappointed! We never see forecaster saying what thy just said on calendar n bbc!!! Do thy have other data!?

[Mellis]

Minus 8 here, top temp of minus 3.7 today,quality!!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I Knw they Dnt get much but things are meant to average out therefore them getting a mega dumping and us nothing isn't exactly averaging out is it. Yes will be nice to see the south west get some. But the chances of these Synoptics showing up again soon are unlikely so would be nice if these so called sliders actually gave us something. The window of snow showers would not be long at all. And remember you folks in the east already have a big covering unlike here!

Well I'm in the West of the Yorkshire region too but I measured 14 inches level snow from a 'streamer' off the North Sea in early December 2010 so keep the faith! All the time the cold is in situ the potential for unexpected snowfall remains.

[bryan629]

when are we going to see the effects of the SSW ?

[summer blizzard]

Keep calm people, the Met Office have access to extremely high resolution models not to mention the UKMO and all 50 ECWMF ensembles.

If they have decided their models are correct then i shall back them over the GFS.

when are we going to see the effects of the SSW ?

We already are.

[Cheese Rice]

I'd be super excited if we were going by the TV/Met Office forecasts but its pretty clear that either a)the forecasts don't represent new model data or b)there model is going against all the others.The Met Office are still very bullish proclaiming widespread 2-5cm with those in the amber expecting severe disruption.

Yet when you view the NAE/NMM the current totals for our region are.

NMM- Western Yorkshire: 1-3cm. Central/Eastern Yorkshire: 0-1cm

NAE- West: 1-3cm. Central/Eastern: 0-1cm

Even by Saturday they expect the front over Eastern parts of the UK!

We are either going to see a massive backtrack by the Met Office or the models will fall inline tomorrow.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I have to say that my hunch is that the snow warnings for Yorkshire on Friday may be removed tomorrow but then replaced by further warnings for heavy snow showers over the weekend.

I could be wrong though...here's hoping for a Friday snowfest!

[summer blizzard]

I'd be super excited if we were going by the TV/Met Office forecasts but its pretty clear that either a)the forecasts don't represent new model data or b)there model is going against all the others.The Met Office are still very bullish proclaiming widespread 2-5cm with those in the amber expecting severe disruption.

Yet when you view the NAE/NMM the current totals for our region are.

NMM- Western Yorkshire: 1-3cm. Central/Eastern Yorkshire: 0-1cm

NAE- West: 1-3cm. Central/Eastern: 0-1cm

Even by Saturday they expect the front over Eastern parts of the UK!

We are either going to see a massive backtrack by the Met Office or the models will fall inline tomorrow.

That's true but when we consider the budget and resources that the Met Office have at their disposal it's hard to believe that they would fall into line with lesser models inside 48 hours.

[LeeSnowFan]

The met office use high tech computers and lots more charts than we get to see they are obviously sure that snow will happen for us but let's see what tomorrow brings

[yorkieblade]

Everybody on here seriously now do you see why I get so frustrated! Bbc forecast above-fantastic and itv calendar weather just promised us blizzards drifting and 25cm on the tops on Friday for the whole region!! Both forecasts were bullish and full of it. So now if this doesn't happen how can one say not to be disappointed! We never see forecaster saying what thy just said on calendar n bbc!!! Do thy have other data!?

I understand what your saying Adam , but very rare do the TV (ITV &BBC ) companies get their forecasts so wrong nowadays, I would imagine because of the involvement with the media /Met Office they cant afford to be far off the mark ...that's why I think Met O share their secret data/model info with certain high profile TV/media organisations to get the correct (as near as they can be) message out.

[Adam lufc]

Mat Taylor even said 'expect to see the amber warnings pushed further east and south' too!! Am I going crazy....

[richjb78]

the charts won't change for the better now. Less chance of anything. Hope it downgrades for west Pennines n midlands too if we're to have nothing.

Post reported for being a complete tool.

Still time for a shift in favour for our region. Even if this event doesn't deliver significantly there are going to be plenty of other opportunities with the current pattern.

[allenar]

The TV forecast after the news earlier would not have been live but recorded earlier. I think Paul Hudson was right to hold back on a ramp.

[Isolated Frost]

Adam,

nope, you were just influenced by a stray 18z GFS run and another awful NAE, despite all other model guidance and Met Office suggesting otherwise.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[summer blizzard]

The TV forecast after the news earlier would not have been live but recorded earlier. I think Paul Hudson was right to hold back on a ramp.

The TV forecasts at 18:30 and 22:30 will have been based on the 12z model outputs which clearly go against the GFS squib.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not sure what to make of the current trend really- the models are progressively shifting the frontal snow further to the south and west which means less chance of organised snowfall, but also increased chance of snow showers firing in off the North Sea. Most likely the overall assessment is an upgrade of snow chances for the eastern half of the region, and a significant downgrade for the western half, but the further south and west the fronts are, the more likely it is that the cold spell will hang on for longer.

[Cal]

Been around here long enough to know them totals or rather Precipitation charts are a waste of time from the GFS unless within 24hrs or less, the high pressure currently to the N/E isn't going anywhere fast, couple this with low temps across the UK i feel it aint going anywhere if anything it will build as slider lows become more evident across the southern half of the UK, initially it looks like the west of the UK will benefit wrt to snow, however the Atlantic normally has at least a couple of attempts at ingression so all is not lost, the key is here i think that should the high hold we are going to see some major cold towards the latter week or so of the month, and being towards the north n east, some places will benefit not only from the atlantic trying to gain access but also major artic air from the north/east, n i'm looking forward to the latter to see the convective potential of the N.Sea when the really cold uppers arrive

Bit of a re-iteration from last nights posting, whilst some will feel down that the latest model runs have downgraded things for those in the east of our region, it should be noted that if things are corrected even further west on later model runs, then the chances of convective snowfall from the east increase, the cold air is dense and takes some shifting, one could even say that it is biulding in this side of the country, creating our own cold pool if you like, couple this with a stubborn high pressure over the Scandi region and with a hint of regression west then short term pain is better for the longterm cold & snow potential!

[Adam lufc]

What is really strange is jay wyn on bbc 24 latest update still confidently shows the snow moving over n stalling sat. They must have different data because they must have seen gfs n nae surely?

[Lincstim]

Poor pics due to mobile phone but here re the cooling towers at work with all the icicles on them. Pics really don't do them justice.

Freezing fog out on Risby Top tonight, visibility down to 5-8m. As bad as I've seen it around Scunny for a few years.

Current temperature for scunny is -6.7 with a dew point of -7.2.