Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

[Cold Winter]

So from my VERY limited understanding of everything so far, we (NW Sheffield) are in for bit of a battering as far as current models go? Up to 20cm but the likelihood of both the battering and 20cm is still too far out to predict but come Thursday afternoon we should have a stronger indication on what is to come? Can we rely on that model though?

Could someone just take the time to either correct me or confirm what I think (for my very little region by comparison) Thankyou.

Sheffield could well see some decent snowfall. Details will be clearer by this time tomorrow. 20cm is on the very top end of what is expected, 10cm is more likely but as I said still time for things to change. With the addition of a strong south/southeasterly wind the snow will be blowing about - this means some areas could see large drifts while others have relatively little depending on exposure to the wind.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Cold Winter

[Wilkybarkid]

Nice summary Cold Winter - I know many think the front will die off and past expereince would lead me to think that way also.

That same expereince made me think that on Monday - and gladly I was wrong so I'm thowing my lot in with the UKMO.

I used to be concerned with anything from the west with warm uppers mixing in like they did Jan 2009 but the HP is establishing itself instead of hanging on as in 2009.

Not expecting a foot of snow but 5cm top up will fit nicely

[johnholmes]

It's just frustrating when you see potential so close to something extremely special just for it to be dashed. We Dnt want a snizzle return to milder temps with naff all. We would like a smashing like was shown and other areas will. Because on the face if it after this there's not much else promising.

Adam it might help your blood pressure if you looked carefully at those posters we can rely on in the model and other threads if you feel not sure of what the models are showing and which to believe?

Don't take that the wrong way but I see nothing to be uptight about, sometimes my/your back yard gets lucky at other times not. The first push of the Atlantic, from the latest models looks like petering out as it moves into Yorks/Derbys so the further east one is then the less snow seems probable, maybe just a cm say for parts of Lincs for example. That said I regularly warn folk to be cautious of ANY precipitation forecast beyond T+24 and sometimes even nearer T+00. Remember that snow needs up to 7 other parameters more than we use for will it rain?

hope that helps you and others?

[Aaron]

TBH, GFS is isolated - it's the only one that doesn't bring the front over our region, so expect it to fall in line with other models.

This is what ECM says..

and as JH rightly points out, PPN charts beyond 24 hours are volatile, so do not hang on their every word, or experience some sort of sugar rush then comedown like I do! I just never learn..

Edited January 16, 2013 by Aaron

[johnholmes]

for those not sure or those arguing will it won't it then the link posted by Coast is as good as you will find for objectivity and probably accuracy as well

[al_13]

Thanks for the confirmation johnholmes and Cold Winter, I'll get back to my thread watching, just wanted to be sure that what I was picking out was as close to accurate as it can be given the constantly changing variables.

Roll on tomorrow afternoon then!

[PMPhotography]

Basically to summarise:

• GFS has Friday's snow reaching the coast or near to the coast overnight Friday night. Before that there's the risk of some moderate, possibly heavy snow in the west and south of our region - W Yorks, S Yorks and western parts of N Yorks in particular. The snow that does get to roughly the east of the A1 looks like it'll become very much lighter and more patchy.
  
• UKMO has the snow reaching all parts and is possibly slightly heavier than GFS output with more moderate snow reaching further east.
  
• The NAE has heavier snow in the west, but current output only goes up to 12z Friday and so the next few charts are required to analyse further.
  

All in all it looks as if most areas will see some snow. Details of how much and where exactly it'll be heaviest are still up for grabs however it looks as if western areas of our region will see the heavier snowfall. How far east the front gets is still under question and we probably won't know for sure until this time tomorrow, and maybe not until the event itself.

Great post.

From experience on this forum there's a lot of folk who either don't have a clue, try intentionally wind people up or make the mistake of hanging on every run.

There are also far too many who wont be happy till there's a 6ft snowdrift in their garden! They chase cold charts and like now, the cold is here yet unless theres a blizzard they're not happy!!

Iv'e certainly remembered the names of the knowledgeable folk on here and I scroll the MOD thread looking for these people the rest i skim over cos it's a waste of my time!

Iv'e also increased my faith in the METO. If they've released an amber warning confidence is HIGH! It may not play out exactly as they think but i'm sure they won't be sitting at Exeter panicking and reversing warnings because one GFS run shows the snow is a little lighter!!

Cold is here, Snow will come... enjoy it!! It's what most on here chase!

Rant over

[Machu Picchu]

Great post.

From experience on this forum there's a lot of folk who either don't have a clue, try intentionally wind people up or make the mistake of hanging on every run.

There are also far too many who wont be happy till there's a 6ft snowdrift in their garden! They chase cold charts and like now, the cold is here yet unless theres a blizzard they're not happy!!

Iv'e certainly remembered the names of the knowledgeable folk on here and I scroll the MOD thread looking for these people the rest i skim over cos it's a waste of my time!

Iv'e also increased my faith in the METO. If they've released an amber warning confidence is HIGH! It may not play out exactly as they think but i'm sure they won't be sitting at Exeter panicking and reversing warnings because one GFS run shows the snow is a little lighter!!

Cold is here, Snow will come... enjoy it!! It's what most on here chase!

Rant over

Great post PMP, very well said.

[fazzafarrand]

Not the coldest by a long shot but got down to -3.4oC this morning

But has not been above -1.5oC all day and now dropping again

1st Ice Day of 2013

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Considering I live 3-4 miles from the North sea I think this mornings -8 was pretty impressive. Just a mile further up the road on the way to work the car temperature dropped to -10. Had no snow melt at all today as temperature has hovered between -3 and -2 al day. Already down to -6 now so I wonder how cold tonight will get?

Edited January 16, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Aaron]

If Friday's front fails to deliver, we can look forward to N Sea snow showers, they can deliver some really big totals and I have fond memories of them.

[Barry12]

Snow all day Friday and Saturday, with more snow on Sunday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644688?day=1

[sunny scunny]

Considering I live 3-4 miles from the North sea I think this mornings -8 was pretty impressive. Just a mile further up the road on the way to work the car temperature dropped to -10. Had no snow melt at all today as temperature has hovered between -3 and -2 al day. Already down to -6 now so I wonder how cold tonight will get?

The max temp here was -3.2c and now down to -4.2c.very foggy all afternoon and no thaw here today either

[Imp81]

If Friday's front fails to deliver, we can look forward to N Sea snow showers, they can deliver some really big totals and I have fond memories of them.

Thats exactly what i was thinking, i'd trade Fridays single dumping event for continuing cold and frequent snow showers pushing inland , though no guarantee those really cold uppers pushing into scandi edging our way is a by product of short term loss and that front missing some of us perhaps?

If that front on friday comes too far east it does'n't bode well for prolonging the cold in the longer term, so be careful what you wish for, 2010 snow (though not for perhaps the west of our region) was off the North sea generally Got no higher than -4 here all day and lovely Hoar frost on the trees and hedgerows etc in the freezing fog most atmospheric

Edited January 16, 2013 by Imp81

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

Snow all day Friday and Saturday, with more snow on Sunday

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/2644688?day=1

Yeah I have seen that too , would happily take it but trying to not get the hopes up too much

[Lincstim]

It's certainly going to be a cold night shift sunny scunny for me. Could also be fun this weekend as I'm 2-10 weekend. Bbc n met showing this area getting snow for a long period. ( not sure if its heavy or not and still time to change) reading on the forum page regarding current models n runs is looking rather tasty for the next week with one person stating the uk is in a perfect position for a snowmageddon event

[fazzafarrand]

Anyone else in Normy or Cas lampost watching

something very fine is falling

Is this from the Ferrybridge power station steam?????

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

Anyone else in Normy or Cas lampost watching

something very fine is falling

Is this from the Ferrybridge power station steam?????

I am stuck in work so can't see !

[sunny scunny]

It's certainly going to be a cold night shift sunny scunny for me. Could also be fun this weekend as I'm 2-10 weekend. Bbc n met showing this area getting snow for a long period. ( not sure if its heavy or not and still time to change) reading on the forum page regarding current models n runs is looking rather tasty for the next week with one person stating the uk is in a perfect position for a snowmageddon event

It was that cold here this morning that my car doors wouldn't open lol.Like Aaron said a bit earlier,if we miss the snow coming in from the west we have got a very good chance of getting some snow showers pushing in from the north sea.It's looking pretty good for us either way TBH.

[Lincstim]

Sure is good. Just loving the real cold winter weather topped up with what ever snow we get.

[Imp81]

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17006-dsc00151/

Nice hoar frost In Laughton forest

[ITSY]

GFS ens downgrade the event to only a smattering for our region, ECM gives us 10cms+, UKMO probably roughly similar (the largest totals to the West, obviously) and JMA gives us bucket loads of snow with serious totals. The weather experts (ie meto and BBC) still saying countrywide so i'll believe them for the time being.

Indeed, Matt Taylor's 18.27pm forecast specifically said snow spreading North and East throughout the day on Friday with blizzard conditions likely. Tomasz Schafernaker also said East UK can see snow falling from mid AM on Friday - 1 hr ago.

Lots still happening then.

Edited January 16, 2013 by ITSY

[Harsh Climate]

Beautiful ECM

120

[Harsh Climate]

GFS ens downgrade the event to only a smattering for our region, ECM gives us 10cms+, UKMO probably roughly similar (the largest totals to the West, obviously). The weather experts (ie meto and BBC) still saying countrywide so i'll believe them for the time being.

Indeed, Matt Taylor's 18.27pm forecast specifically said snow spreading North and East throughout the day on Friday with blizzard conditions likely. Lots still happening then.

Hardly that bad, look at precipitation expected on 12z esembles

Geerally 7/8mm for west yorkshire which would equal about 10cm of snow.

Should imagine though totals a lot less for eastern yorkshire.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Aaron]

For what it's worth, ECM portrays hours of light-mod snow for most of our region, heaviest in West Yorkshire, and then shows another area of snow moving up from SE England/East Anglia - I think we could get some decent totals, and then we have convection later in the week.. happy faces, everyone, things look pretty good!