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Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Things look a lot less better so far than on the 06z.. front not as progressive.

Yup, massive downgrade, snow doesn't even make it here.

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Adam lufc Contributor

Adam lufc

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

Cheers aron. Heart broken again now.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Things look a lot less better so far than on the 06z.. front not as progressive.

Yup, massive downgrade, snow doesn't even make it here.

GFS Looks good

Rtavn544.png

gfs-2-54.png?12

Edited by Barry95
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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

It goes from this..

gfs-2-54.png?12

To this..

gfs-2-60.png?12

Will need a few more runs to be sure, but I feel like the 06z was a fluke.

Edited by Aaron
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Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted

GFS looking good for western areas on Friday. Unfortunately for me in York it's not looking great. Apart from a few flurries we've been too far inland to be affected by showers from the coast over the last few days, and it looks like we'll be too far east on Friday! Can't win!

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

On the flip side, UKMO doesn't look too bad.

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Adam lufc Contributor

Adam lufc

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

Doesn't look tht good for rest of country too really. Typical just as it felt and looked special thus happens. Back to boring uk weather then again.

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Letitsnowyorkshire Rookie

Letitsnowyorkshire

Posted
  • Location: Normanton ,West Yorkshire 41m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Mild Spring , hot summer , crisp autumn and snowy cold winters
  • Location: Normanton ,West Yorkshire 41m asl
Posted

Doesn't look tht good for rest of country too really. Typical just as it felt and looked special thus happens. Back to boring uk weather then again.

ehhh is that really it ? have all my snow dreams for Friday been scamperd??

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smhouston Explorer

smhouston

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
Posted

Doesn't look tht good for rest of country too really. Typical just as it felt and looked special thus happens. Back to boring uk weather then again.

I'd suggest leaving the chart reading to the experts IMO!
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CasMan Contributor

CasMan

Posted
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
Posted

I am a total newbie in regards to model output etc, but when people are stating that the event is over just after 1 run it is a little annoying to be honest, especially when in the model output thread this is posted, which to me shows a lot of snow over our region on saturday afternoon does it not?

http://www.meteociel...2-594.GIF?16-16

Bit confusing for newbies like me that some people flip their opinions as often as the models do.

Surely you cant take 1 run as gospel?

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

O dear, some rather silly posts beginning to appear.... laugh.png

Which silly posts? GFS looks poor for this region. Of course, this is just one run, and is a world away from the 06z so we can expect a change again, but it's perfectly understandable that people are concerned.

UKMO looks good though.

Edited by Aaron
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al_13 Newbie

al_13

Posted
  • Location: Altofts
  • Weather Preferences: Cold.
  • Location: Altofts
Posted

This is like a manic depressives worst nightmare the way some of you respond. It's the weather, and as has been re-iterated time and again, this event should it be one will be like a lot of snow events and be down to nowcasting.

The charts are (again as has been said) too far out to be heavily relied upon at the moment.

Either way, it would be prudent to be prepared for a heavy snow fall, and be grateful for any at all.

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Love Snow Experienced

Love Snow

Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
Posted (edited)

ehhh is that really it ? have all my snow dreams for Friday been scamperd??

Will be many twists and Turns wouldn't worry too much some charts will be good some will be bad until nearer the Time.

Edited by Love Snow
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Letitsnowyorkshire Rookie

Letitsnowyorkshire

Posted
  • Location: Normanton ,West Yorkshire 41m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Mild Spring , hot summer , crisp autumn and snowy cold winters
  • Location: Normanton ,West Yorkshire 41m asl
Posted

I am a total newbie in regards to model output etc, but when people are stating that the event is over just after 1 run it is a little annoying to be honest, especially when in the model output thread this is posted, which to me shows a lot of snow over our region on saturday afternoon does it not?

http://www.meteociel...2-594.GIF?16-16

Bit confusing for newbies like me that some people flip their opinions as often as the models do.

Surely you cant take 1 run as gospel?

I too find this confuses me also , I am a weather enthusiast and really dont know how to read charts ( though I have a go) so I let more informed people on here guide the way . I find that just as people have the tendancy to ramp possible snow events some go the full 180 in the other direction then I am left a bit baffled !

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

To be honest, I think I need to refrain myself from posting on any upgrade or downgrade, as the runs are so different from one another, that it's not possible to form a pattern or a trend ATM.

Will wait for the 18z again and see what happens.

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Adam lufc Contributor

Adam lufc

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

It's just frustrating when you see potential so close to something extremely special just for it to be dashed. We Dnt want a snizzle return to milder temps with naff all. We would like a smashing like was shown and other areas will. Because on the face if it after this there's not much else promising.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

I see no milder temperatures ,but it will certainly be very disappointing if we don't get a decent snow cover, kind of makes the cold useless.

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Adam lufc Contributor

Adam lufc

Posted
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and hot sunny weather.
  • Location: Moortown/shadwell-145m-leeds.
Posted

I see no milder temperatures ,but it will certainly be very disappointing if we don't get a decent snow cover, kind of makes the cold useless.

EXACTLY!! :(

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Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Basically to summarise:

  • GFS has Friday's snow reaching the coast or near to the coast overnight Friday night. Before that there's the risk of some moderate, possibly heavy snow in the west and south of our region - W Yorks, S Yorks and western parts of N Yorks in particular. The snow that does get to roughly the east of the A1 looks like it'll become very much lighter and more patchy.
  • UKMO has the snow reaching all parts and is possibly slightly heavier than GFS output with more moderate snow reaching further east.
  • The NAE has heavier snow in the west, but current output only goes up to 12z Friday and so the next few charts are required to analyse further.

All in all it looks as if most areas will see some snow. Details of how much and where exactly it'll be heaviest are still up for grabs however it looks as if western areas of our region will see the heavier snowfall. How far east the front gets is still under question and we probably won't know for sure until this time tomorrow, and maybe not until the event itself.

Edited by Cold Winter
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al_13 Newbie

al_13

Posted
  • Location: Altofts
  • Weather Preferences: Cold.
  • Location: Altofts
Posted

So from my VERY limited understanding of everything so far, we (NW Sheffield) are in for bit of a battering as far as current models go? Up to 20cm but the likelihood of both the battering and 20cm is still too far out to predict but come Thursday afternoon we should have a stronger indication on what is to come? Can we rely on that model though?

Could someone just take the time to either correct me or confirm what I think (for my very little region by comparison) Thankyou.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

So from my VERY limited understanding of everything so far, we (NW Sheffield) are in for bit of a battering as far as current models go? Up to 20cm but the likelihood of both the battering and 20cm is still too far out to predict but come Thursday afternoon we should have a stronger indication on what is to come? Can we rely on that model though?

Could someone just take the time to either correct me or confirm what I think (for my very little region by comparison) Thankyou.

I think that summation is about as accurate as anyone can be al at the moment. Ys by the 12z run tomorrow you can look at the short range models like NMM on Net Wx (Extra) and the NAE (Met O) along with the normal style GFS on Net Wx and another better view if you have Extra.

hope that helps

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