South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[MR EXTREMES]

flurry of posts...

Points west talking about 11 inches for mendips and cotswolds, seems more than the official meto forecast, 7 inches for other parts of the region.

that suits me and my kids even though i got a major flu ive constantly been keeping an eye on developments do this weather warnings stand for the south here in portsmouth and is there a risk of a warm sector as the met office has highlighted that snow will turn to rain is this the case?

[TwisterGirl81]

Oh I hope Exeter get a good lot of snow! I'm hoping the snow has moved even slightly mmore west so we'd benifit and also poor old Cornwall too

[cerneman]

Clairvoyant Kaz.

The future is UNCERTAIN. Always is, always will be.

Are You Certain of that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[caz100]

nope its soooo going to miss us....... just watched spotlight

[Andy Pepler]

all together now

[EGHH]

I know, but you get a little sceptical down here. It's just that temps have been set stubbornly at around the 4-5 oC mark for quite some time now and it takes a little leap of faith to think they will fall just in time for the arrival of the precipitation. Really, I love snow but it really never seems happen here.

In basic terms as the front pushes in there will be a warm-ish plume ahead of it. This will eventually mix out as the front continues to move East against the cold block. But, as the precipitation falls, it drags cold air from higher up down with it. The heavier it falls the colder it will get at the surface (to a point obviously). So, tomorrow it depends on how heavily the precipitation starts and finishes. If the front eases in and eases out then it'll be a slushy mix down here to start with and to finish with but with snow in the middle. If it's heavy for most of the time then most of it will be snow.

And... it also depends on how much of the boundary layer is modified by air dragged up off the channel - this also can modify how slushy it is down on the coast. But we're only talking about 10-20 miles of the immediate coast here. Inland of that should be all snow I think.

I should qualify that I'm talking in terms of Dorset here.

[dancing daisy]

I have a lovely bottle of wine ready to be cracked and our snow is due from about 2am, if it doesn't come then I will be working on little sleep and a hangover. This is a real weather dilemma for me.

I have nothing to add re) weather. It's dismal and grey outside with nothing falling from the sky. I just wanted to let you all know I am still alive.

[TwisterGirl81]

nope its soooo going to miss us....... just watched spotlight

I'm sorry to hear that :9 You never know....I think Exeter in Devon should get a good amount though, maybe at least 5 inches or more

[Frosty_wsm]

All these light snow reports from around the region and nothing here at all when I keep checking, which is every 5 minutes lol, not that I'm worried, considering what's coming later on tonight

[Jason74]

Thank you Mapantz! Seeing rain in Christchurch filled me with dread, now feeling more positive again.

More or less certain now that Christchurch/Poole/Bournemouth area will see plenty of snow tomorrow. Cold air is going to kick in soon.

[Frank Trough]

All i will do now is hope and pray that i see reports of snow falling at Weymouth and Bridport as the front approaches...if i'm up in time.

[gottolovethisweather]

No not clairvoyant just looked and charts, weather forecasts ect. I do think Exmoor will see some snow but there is nothing to suggest that my area (Barnstaple) will see any snow. I will whisper this last bit ... Which to be honest I am very happy about.

Both my sons live in Berkshire in fact i was born there so i am sure they will be calling telling me of huge amounts of snow they are getting.

Kaz

I'm not counting my chickens on both counts, my patch in Berkshire or yours in Devon.

I personally expect, a very small minority will be unhappy, should they be wishing for snowfall. On the other hand, a very large majority of us will be filled with glee by the morning, once again, assuming you are snow obsessed.

My last comment is based on the NAE, NMM and MetO output and is backed up by certain other peoples thoughts.

Of course as ever, it is simply knife-edge stuff between it raining or snowing and location, location, location will be especially important.

Are You Certain of that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't start me off.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[DanDorsetUK]

Had rain most of day been 20 miles in land away from coast too. Think there will be quite a few without snow tomorrow on the coasts. Just saying dont get ya hopes up to much! Been quite shocked ive had rain most of day. Im not expecting much tomorrow now. been brought back to earth today.

[lfcdude]

Met Office â€@metoffice

Updated snow depth map for Friday. See how much snow is expected to settle in your area: pic.twitter.com/VRmN5CGW

Good times

Edited January 17, 2013 by lfcdude

[Dave Kightley]

Anyone know when the cold uppers back west again? Nae highlights my concern. Nae needs to be further west or the snow be pointless for most south of shepton mallet.

[irish fiddler]

all i can say is im dissapointed with the lack of faith for us dorset boys! i can FEEEL that there will be snow! lots of it!

[Erbyskerby]

Right, I burnt my tongue drinking a hot chocolate yesterday therefore I need snow for MEDICINAL purposes only.

Will have to get in the car and go find some so I can soothe my pain.

Either that or go and lick my fridge freezer and I know which one I'd prefer....

Looks like things could get a bit hairy further up the south west so whilst I'm deeply jealous - I hope the NHS and emergency services cope OK.

[Slippery When White]

All i will do now is hope and pray that i see reports of snow falling at Weymouth and Bridport as the front approaches...if i'm up in time.

I'm fairly skeptical about the forecast here in Weymouth. We have not been anywhere near zero in either air temp of dew point this week and I can't see enough of a drop happening when it arrives for snow to reach sea level. It is currently 6.8c air and 1.9c dew point.

[EGHH]

Interesting, so the further west the boundary is the more likely we are to get snow, if I read that right?

Yes.

Looking at curren temperatures and precipitation across the region, it's fair to say that we're already feeling the affects of the warmer air pushing in from the atlantic. The line of precipitation currently falling seems to be a trough or a sheared off piece of energy and should meander Eastwards throughout the rest of day bringing light rain sleet and snow to many.

I think temperatures will max out in the next hour or two and will then fall into tonight - not really recovering much if at all tomorrow.

Again, just thinking about Dorset.

[EGHH]

And to add, what dictates the amount of air dragged up off the channel in its modification of the boundary layer?

Just wind direction, strength and the inflow/outflow balance of the front. We'll need to nowcast that really.

[gottolovethisweather]

Had rain most of day been 20 miles in land away from coast too. Think there will be quite a few without snow tomorrow on the coasts. Just saying dont get ya hopes up to much! Been quite shocked ive had rain most of day. Im not expecting much tomorrow now. been brought back to earth today.

MetO forecast suggests several hours of snow in amongst the sleet and rain which should also come along during the event.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=5day

Netweather current output suggests a few hours of snow overnight, eventually turning to sleet and rain as the day progresses.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;ct=3677~Bournemouth;sess=

The other most reliable sources coming from the NAE and NMM outputs, so keep an eye on those as ever.

[Bristawl Si]

Latest BBC News 24 forecast just now seems to have moved to a more prolonged spell of snow tomorrow for much of our region - maybe stretching to early evening for Dorset, Wilts, Glos, Hants, Berks and even BTL.

[Beasterly]

Had a look at the BBC forecast. It's looking better with less interruptions during the day!

[Wilxy]

Latest BBC News 24 forecast just now seems to have moved to a more prolonged spell of snow tomorrow for much of our region - maybe stretching to early evening for Dorset, Wilts, Glos, Hants, Berks and even BTL.

This evening?

[cerneman]

Carry's on like this might buy round of drinks at Pub tomorrow night, Hopefully everyone be snowed in so cheap round