Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>

[BleakMidwinter]

Glad you clarified that, by-tor

Right, well, I've looked at all the charts, with my (ahem) finely-honed skills in interpretation of charts* and am confidently looking forward to what Miss SS would call Lickety-Split Snaw!

*this means I've read what you lot have posted

[Hairy Celt]

Christ, no more burgers here, absolutely knackered after having the trots summat rotten today, and young HC is a little hoarse after a cross-country gallop this afternoon.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[November13]

The progress of the snow from the South West is painfully slow! Could be a long night. Eyes to the East as well!

[JoeShmoe]

Christ, no more burgers here, absolutely knackered after having the trots summat rotten today, and young HC is a little hoarse after a cross-country gallop this afternoon.

Aye, whole thing is a nightMARE

[JoeShmoe]

4.30 N24 forecaster said that focus moves to North East England and Eastern Scotland saturday with snow showers piling in off the North Sea

[Isolated Frost]

4.30 N24 forecaster said that focus moves to North East England and Eastern Scotland saturday with snow showers piling in off the North Sea

That's what we like to see!

[snowy owl]

Christ, no more burgers here, absolutely knackered after having the trots summat rotten today, and young HC is a little hoarse after a cross-country gallop this afternoon.

Aw that made me hee haw(or was that the donkey burger?). Awfy glad i'm having steak pie, nae trots here cause i make me own burgers

Back the the weather and i cannie believe i've gotta wait all day tmrw now to see anything, it feels like we've been waiting for ever.lol

Charts are still under some disagreement to my untrained eye so don't know how good this will turn out to be here but i'm a little panicky still, hopefully wont bring on a irritable bowl trots run P

[snow1975]

Still a very thin patchy snow cover here.

Some changes this afternoon. The Stratcocumulus sheet has dissolved from the SE, skies are clear overhead now. Quite a haze developing with a moderate south-est breeze. Current temp 0.3C, wet-bulb 0.0C. I tried to induce an ice-bulb by touching the bulb with some snow....still reading 0.0C.

[Isolated Frost]

Latest big suites out (I'd classify GEM as bigger than GFS after this winter!)

GEM has a more north-east pattern than the UKMO- with a SE flow instead of a ESE, and a slightly less favourable pattern at 70/80 N, 0 W/E. Heavy snow showers on -8c/-9c for the east of Scotland, moving in to many central parts on the UKMO, more likely to be flurries and lighter shrs on the GEM with a strong, marginal SE wind and -6c/-7c uppers.

Both are similar at 0000 Sunday, with -8c uppers into NE Scotland on the GEM with a E/SE flow, and -10c uppers clipping parts of Scotland on the UKMO.

More heavy snow with -8c to -10c uppers across most of Scotland on Sunday... that's 2 days of almost constant convective snow shrs, potentially quite heavy. Significant accumulations possible for the E and NE of the nation especially (note nation!!). The GEM and UKMO are broadly similar with the exceptions of a slightly more favourable tint of the segmented troughing in the atlantic on the GEM- and the Euro trough being positioned further south. Add to that the polar vortex strength is stronger in Scandi on the GEM, I'd say UKMO was a weaker solution when it comes to its outcome after this wknd, which by the way is v snowy for north and east Scotland, potentially snowy, but looking more wet and marginal for the south. We'll see the GEM in a bit when it updates past 72, but I would expect to be more positive on that front.

A very snowy weekend to come for those in the East of Scotland, although the potential is there for all areas of the nation to see some snowfall.

[Sunny Leith]

As if the last few months and weeks of model anxiety weren't stress inducing enough, now we're on the verge of something (and surely we are...) we still can't nail it. The west is gonnaa get it, the west isnae gonna get it, the west might still get it ... jeez !

I usually like to give friends and neighbours a bit of a heads up when I'm confident enough for local impact but its going to come down to nowcasting like what Lorenzo said yesterday.

Be glad when theres even just 1cm of bog-standard snow on the ground and I can *relax* about it...

[Buriedundersnow]

Latest big suites out (I'd classify GEM as bigger than GFS after this winter!)

GEM has a more north-east pattern than the UKMO- with a SE flow instead of a ESE, and a slightly less favourable pattern at 70/80 N, 0 W/E. Heavy snow showers on -8c/-9c for the east of Scotland, moving in to many central parts on the UKMO, more likely to be flurries and lighter shrs on the GEM with a strong, marginal SE wind and -6c/-7c uppers.

Both are similar at 0000 Sunday, with -8c uppers into NE Scotland on the GEM with a E/SE flow, and -10c uppers clipping parts of Scotland on the UKMO.

More heavy snow with -8c to -10c uppers across most of Scotland on Sunday... that's 2 days of almost constant convective snow shrs, potentially quite heavy. Significant accumulations possible for the E and NE of the nation especially (note nation!!). The GEM and UKMO are broadly similar with the exceptions of a slightly more favourable tint of the segmented troughing in the atlantic on the GEM- and the Euro trough being positioned further south. Add to that the polar vortex strength is stronger in Scandi on the GEM, I'd say UKMO was a weaker solution when it comes to its outcome after this wknd, which by the way is v snowy for north and east Scotland, potentially snowy, but looking more wet and marginal for the south. We'll see the GEM in a bit when it updates past 72, but I would expect to be more positive on that front.

A very snowy weekend to come for those in the East of Scotland, although the potential is there for all areas of the nation to see some snowfall.

have to agree with u on the first statement as the GFS has been crap at handling all this

EDIT: looks like the USA is going the same way with there weather models as with everything else when was the last time u had something good that u can say i got that from the USA

Edited January 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO 96 would be -5c 850s for the SW of Scotland to about -7c in the NE, very close and marginal.

-7's and -8's throughout Scotland on the UKMO 120- a very snowy chart.

-7's and -8's also at the 144, which would be bitterly cold and drier.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Haven't we been here before? Talking about +96 or T144 when in reality at T0 we don't know what's going on. I sometimes think posting multiple charts showing potential snow or cold are confusing and generally raise hopes once again, when in truth nothing much happens. Bah-humbug

Edited January 17, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[Hairy Celt]

Just realised that the strange clouds I saw earlier were probably mares'-tails.

Coat, hat, exit.

[Buriedundersnow]

could someone clear something up for me.

i have seen on the model thread ppl saying 1mm rain = 1cm snow now i am sure i read somewhere that 1mm rain = at very best on rare occasions 8mm snow and is more likely to be between 4-7mm.

could someone who knows plz let me know what realistic total are.

[Isolated Frost]

Dry snow= 1mm around 12mm (1.2cm) of snow

Wet snow= 1mm around 5-10mm (0.5cm - 1cm) of snow

Look at the dewpoints, if they are below -1c, then most snow is dry, and light amounts of 1mm will equate to more than 1cm of snow

but if it is wet, the water content is higher and 1mm is less than 1cm of snow

[Hairy Celt]

Haven't we been here before? Talking about +96 or T144 when in reality at T0 we don't know what's going on. I sometimes think posting multiple charts showing potential snow or cold are confusing and generally raise hopes once again, when in truth nothing much happens. Bah-humbug

It's just a game; those of us who're a bit long in the tooth know not to bother...

Dry snow= 1mm around 12mm (1.2cm) of snow

Wet snow= 1mm around 5-10mm (0.5cm - 1cm) of snow

Look at the dewpoints, if they are below -1c, then most snow is dry, and light amounts of 1mm will equate to more than 1cm of snow

but if it is wet, the water content is higher and 1mm is less than 1cm of snow

Yeah and if it's at T96, 1cm of snow = 1cm of rain.

[Buriedundersnow]

Dry snow= 1mm around 12mm (1.2cm) of snow

Wet snow= 1mm around 5-10mm (0.5cm - 1cm) of snow

Look at the dewpoints, if they are below -1c, then most snow is dry, and light amounts of 1mm will equate to more than 1cm of snow

but if it is wet, the water content is higher and 1mm is less than 1cm of snow

thanks IF

[Kayemill]

could someone clear something up for me.

i have seen on the model thread ppl saying 1mm rain = 1cm snow now i am sure i read somewhere that 1mm rain = at very best on rare occasions 8mm snow and is more likely to be between 4-7mm.

could someone who knows plz let me know what realistic total are.

Mine is easy. 0 precip = 0 snow. :-(

Sorry don't know the answer though.

[JoeShmoe]

Appears to be snowing across NW England and the East Midlands, up to Leeds

None of which was forecast even 4 hours ago

So it shows youre probably best to ignore the NAE, NMM, BBC whatever and just look at the radar and oot the windae

[jon_d1983]

Heavy sleet/hail in Aberdeen now. Wind is Baltic!!

[snow1975]

could someone clear something up for me.

i have seen on the model thread ppl saying 1mm rain = 1cm snow now i am sure i read somewhere that 1mm rain = at very best on rare occasions 8mm snow and is more likely to be between 4-7mm.

could someone who knows plz let me know what realistic total are.

My understanding of it is it depends on the density of the snow.

eg. wet snow, temp at or above zero, 10mm of rain=5cm of snow

dry snow, temp well below zero, 10mm rain=20cm snow

[LomondSnowstorm]

Haven't we been here before? Talking about +96 or T144 when in reality at T0 we don't know what's going on. I sometimes think posting multiple charts showing potential snow or cold are confusing and generally raise hopes once again, when in truth nothing much happens. Bah-humbug

+36 isn't too far out?

Anyway, lots of changes of course possible even before then, so you are of course right that we can't just take the output at face value.

[LomondSnowstorm]

NMM looks good for a trough coming in from the east at 1pm tomorrow, snow spreading into central parts and hanging around for most of the evening, further snow showers into the east through the evening into morning with dewpoints sub zero away from the immediate coasts.

[Benvironment]

Reeeeeeeeally cold up on the hill just now. As soon as the sun went down you really felt it tonight.......and it looks like I've scraped a second consecutive ice day as the temp didn't get above freezing again Can't remember the last time that happened here. Might even have been as far back as Dec 2010!

Snapped this on the phone. Quite a contrast between the snow on the hill and the grassy Fife flatness.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Scotster