South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[chris55]

And there's me thinking (2) was the main band!

It's gonna be a fun night

I'm not 100% sure tha'ts correct, to me the band in the Atlantic looks like the main band, I really don't see another defined band moving in, the main band may well be bolstered up. But I think it is the main one.

I might be wrong though, so any info would be cool.

NAE shows the main band touching Crnwall between 6-12 so the Radar ties in with this,

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris55

[Lynxus]

Of interest...

The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that prceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...

Hopefully, This stuff behind is more active ( It seems like its got higher cloud tops / more convection )

[Snow shut work]

As paul t posted, the work shutter tomorrow is behind a hefty looking front, that could make most interesting before 11pm tonight (5 hours before i'm planning to go to bed)

[gottolovethisweather]

Of interest...

The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that prceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...

Thankyou, that's cleared that up then. I wonder if its still on course, given the timeframe expected.

[OldMetMan]

Light rain on the Isle of Wight - despite all the opinions and optimism I suspect we are going to be lucky to see anything other than snow on the hills at Butser some 18 miles away. The sea remains a huge pool of (relatively) warm water and I do wonder what the models make of this

I agree Chief,

I'm actually quite surprised at the confidence of the Met in including all coastal regions in their weather warnings for tomorrow. It's been raining here in Southampton on and off for a couple of hours, temp 3.1 (that could be half a degree too high) with 86% humidity so dewpoint around 1deg.

Admittedly, temps are pretty low over N France and the Low Countries and our point of view here on the coast, with SE-E winds picking up, it MAY pull in some of that colder, drier air. There's too much cloud for any nocturnal cooling so I guess the reasoning by the MetO is that cold continental air.

Past experience has taught me that fronts moving into our area from the W or WSW rarely bring snow to the coastal strip UNLESS the air is exceptionally cold, which it isn't. I saw it snow once here in December 1981 when the temp was around 4deg but it has been VERY cold beforehand.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens later when the wind picks up but I'm not holding my breath here as there have been too many snow non-events before.

[littlemissy]

Eh? Which part of Wellington was that? I've been here at work all day in town, and saw nothing but a very few isolated flakes, all of which melted on contact.

A few flakes settled on his head before disappearing ! a few flakes fell at lunch time where i work.I am a little sceptical abt tomorrows forecast.We will see.

[Uncle_Barty]

Winds veer SE and strengthen later, Temps will drop back

Do you mean "back southeasterly"?!

We have a southerly here at the moment (170°), if it veers it will go more SW or even westerly.

Veer = swing clockwise

Back = swing anticlockwise.

[MrNooo]

Been snowing fairly steadily here, settling on the fields although can still see the crops (at the moment!) Off to the pub, snow plough duties tomorrow I suspect!!

[textmum]

Just confirmed this L, lobleys mus be a few metres ASL from me.

None settling up this end of Lobleys, we must be on the edge of this lot, just some light flurries.

[Stormyking]

Light rain on the Isle of Wight - despite all the opinions and optimism I suspect we are going to be lucky to see anything other than snow on the hills at Butser some 18 miles away. The sea remains a huge pool of (relatively) warm water and I do wonder what the models make of this

Hey there fellow Isle of wighter

The rain/sleet tonight has been expected according to the NAE, but dont panick about it as the temperatures is expected to drop rather quickly after midnight, and I am pretty confident even on the Isle of Wight coast we will get a decent covering of snow tomorrow before turning a bit sleety again in the evening. How ever further inland Isle of Wight shouldn't be affected much In my opinion especially higher ground, and believe it will remain as just snow.

So don't worry yet fella

[kaz]

temps here have slowly risen during the day now 5c dew point is -2 The wind has got up a little now making it feel very much colder. Hubby has just set off to work I have told him to keep checking the weather overnight, not that I am expecting snow here but where he works is at a higher elevation.

kaz

[Bristawl Si]

A few spots of rain here in SG, when i popped out the side door to the bin.

Feels noticeably colder than a couple of hours ago though.

[coxxy22]

Of interest...

The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that prceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...

so if the small front is heavy enough would this start to pull in the colder temps a little earlier ?? before the main band turns up ??

[Beast of Plympton]

Getting cold and breezy now.... Spotlight said blizzard conditions on the moors.... When is the NAE out? Did someone say that band on the chart isn't the main front??!!

[khodds]

Of interest...

The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that prceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...

Will the temps still get down low enough for snow with band 1 though? Sorry for this question! Just wish the temperature here would drop! Probably worry unnecessarily...

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Lynxus]

As posted a min ago. I really do hope theres more behind that current band moving into the SW.......

[Evie]

Can someone please reply to me as to whether we will get snow here in Exeter? The METO forecast keeps changing, I want snow! (Stamps my feet)!

[gottolovethisweather]

I agree Chief,

I'm actually quite surprised at the confidence of the Met in including all coastal regions in their weather warnings for tomorrow. It's been raining here in Southampton on and off for a couple of hours, temp 3.1 (that could be half a degree too high) with 86% humidity so dewpoint around 1deg.

Admittedly, temps are pretty low over N France and the Low Countries and our point of view here on the coast, with SE-E winds picking up, it MAY pull in some of that colder, drier air. There's too much cloud for any nocturnal cooling so I guess the reasoning by the MetO is that cold continental air.

Past experience has taught me that fronts moving into our area from the W or WSW rarely bring snow to the coastal strip UNLESS the air is exceptionally cold, which it isn't. I saw it snow once here in December 1981 when the temp was around 4deg but it has been VERY cold beforehand.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens later when the wind picks up but I'm not holding my breath here as there have been too many snow non-events before.

Always appreciate your views OMM, this was precisely what I was trying to stress to some folk based within the boundary of the solent earlier. What are your thoughts for places such as Dorset and the IOW for example?

[karlos1983]

I'm a nervous wreck here!!,!, so many conflicting posts, really could use an Ian F comment one way or the other...

[Karl83]

Hmmmm... Metoffice app says I have light snow at the moment, the gadget on my desktop shows light snow at the moment, but yet, the lampost says no snow. lol

Edited January 17, 2013 by Karl83

[Bristawl Si]

As posted a min ago. I really do hope theres more behind that current band moving into the SW.......

On raintoday radar there's a huge mass just off sw coast of Ireland, so as that crosses into ireland and starts to slide south east towards us i'm guessing that will beef it up in the early hours.

Not v technical i know!

[Beast of Plympton]

Can someone please reply to me as to whether we will get snow here in Exeter? The METO forecast keeps changing, I want snow! (Stamps my feet)!

I am in devon as well so been watching closely. Yes you will, the way it looks. You have a bit of height there as well. Still a bit unclear about what the afternoon will bring, maybe a few rain showers but nothing huge I don't think. Snow should be with you early hours of the morning....

[snowking]

Of interest...

The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that preceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...

Yep I believe thats the upper front modelled ahead of the main band - its always been this that I had suspected may cause a few surprises (upper fronts notoriously difficult to model) and as this stalls tomorrow evening it will be interesting to see where the location is....could well be that northern parts of your region, across through the southern midlands and into east anglia (certainly judging by the latest FAX)

Continue to see some persistent (albeit light) snowfall through well into the overnight period.

Expect the unexpected!

On a separate note, as a former Cheltenham resident, its great to see you guys doing so well from this, I was fortunate enough to be down there during 2009/10 where there were quite a few decent events up into Cheltenham but I know those of you down towards Dorset/Somerset/Devon/Cornwall in particular had a lot of very near misses and so its great to see a much better chance down in those areas this time around

SK

Edited January 17, 2013 by snowking

[Mapantz]

As posted a min ago. I really do hope theres more behind that current band moving into the SW.......

That will pep up, it'll be running in to strong PVA/Vortxmax areas.

[alijoe]

Will it snow in Cardiff? Yesssssss finally bottle of cider to celebrate!

Can you blow it to Magor please Jay???? waiting patiently but noubt happening. I already have the cider on chill to celebrate ;-)