South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[chris55]

Was the rest of the run a snowfest still?

Still in the freezer come Friday, although dry, but very cold.

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris55

[MR EXTREMES]

just been for a run along the seafront. Raining gently and absolutely tropical compared to Fleet (where i was working earlier). I think we need a miracle.

agreed just goes to show with all the experienced members and useless met office and all these weather charts and temps are rising and its raining terrible.

[windseeker]

light snow has been falling here giving a light dusting on car roof

[chris55]

I live very close to the Rugby club and they have just put on the flood lights, when I went out just now the snow looked well impressive in the lights!! Not heavy enough to settle but looks great. Really blowing about in the wind and not the slightest hint of sleet or anything remotely wet.

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris55

[khodds]

closer to 2C here and going down slowly. Sleet has all but stopped

Where abouts are you Tom? Can't see as on mobile...

[OldMetMan]

Always appreciate your views OMM, this was precisely what I was trying to stress to some folk based within the boundary of the solent earlier. What are your thoughts for places such as Dorset and the IOW for example?

Hi GTLTW, this is what I found puzzling about the MetO weather warnings, they are normally at pains to exclude the coastal strip if there is any uncertainty about if it'll be rain or snow, so I was trying to fathom the reason for their confidence!

As I mentioned, they seem to be putting their faith in colder air being drawn in from France on the strengthening SE flow, OR it could be that as the frontal zone approaches with a triple-point LP forming, then winds across our area will turn ENE, maybe even NE thus bringing us a land track, rather than a sea fetch.

But to answer your question, I shall be very surprised if immediate coasts from the IOW westward get anything but rain. But it is so finely balanced. A few miles inland it could be a different story.

I notice on the latest surface obs from the N French coast, although the temps are above freezing, the dewpoints are sub-zero, so as the gradient increases, there may be less chance for the air to pick up heat from the Channel.

I shall be watching temps closely throughout the evening to see how things change. But I am not getting too excited until I actually see the snow!!

[Beast of Plympton]

A fellow exonian, I want it thick deep and fast - bring on the snow

[wightwootton]

I agree Chief,

I'm actually quite surprised at the confidence of the Met in including all coastal regions in their weather warnings for tomorrow. It's been raining here in Southampton on and off for a couple of hours, temp 3.1 (that could be half a degree too high) with 86% humidity so dewpoint around 1deg.

Admittedly, temps are pretty low over N France and the Low Countries and our point of view here on the coast, with SE-E winds picking up, it MAY pull in some of that colder, drier air. There's too much cloud for any nocturnal cooling so I guess the reasoning by the MetO is that cold continental air.

Past experience has taught me that fronts moving into our area from the W or WSW rarely bring snow to the coastal strip UNLESS the air is exceptionally cold, which it isn't. I saw it snow once here in December 1981 when the temp was around 4deg but it has been VERY cold beforehand.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens later when the wind picks up but I'm not holding my breath here as there have been too many snow non-events before.

Continental cold air showing signs of moving across!!

[RCT]

Anyone know whether we might get some snow in Ivybridge? Temp is 5.1c at the moment!

[Wilxy]

Snowing now bigger flakes.

[Sainsbo]

It's been snowing constantly here in Swindon since about 3PM. Only light, but 5 hours of snow and nothing has settled. It is very light in nature, and temperature is still 1C. I hope the wet ground will freeze overnight before the next heavy band of snow moves inland.

[karlos1983]

Ok, just been outside, temp noticeable drop since my last venture out, although I'm showing 4.5C, better than the 5C 30 mins ago, plus a notable breeze picking up which certainly does not feel like a s'westerly! Hope still clinging on

[Smokeone]

Hi GTLTW, this is what I found puzzling about the MetO weather warnings, they are normally at pains to exclude the coastal strip if there is any uncertainty about if it'll be rain or snow, so I was trying to fathom the reason for their confidence!

As I mentioned, they seem to be putting their faith in colder air being drawn in from France on the strengthening SE flow, OR it could be that as the frontal zone approaches with a triple-point LP forming, then winds across our area will turn ENE, maybe even NE thus bringing us a land track, rather than a sea fetch.

But to answer your question, I shall be very surprised if immediate coasts from the IOW westward get anything but rain. But it is so finely balanced. A few miles inland it could be a different story.

I notice on the latest surface obs from the N French coast, although the temps are above freezing, the dewpoints are sub-zero, so as the gradient increases, there may be less chance for the air to pick up heat from the Channel.

I shall be watching temps closely throughout the evening to see how things change. But I am not getting too excited until I actually see the snow!!

Thanks OMM its good to see you in here, i hope you will be here later in the night. Looks very interesting

[gottolovethisweather]

He didnt say there is NO WAY, he was simply saying there is a chance it could be rain. It's not even happened yet. Lets wait and see.

Indeed he didn't and nor do the professionals.

As I see things, we might as NEVER bother having any chances of something really special as some people have already surrendered.

It happens every time.

Roll on summer and off to the Dorset beaches I go. If it does indeed snow as suggested (albeit in brief period overnight), a whole host of you Dorsetonians might be owing me a beer.

[coxxy22]

Continental cold air showing signs of moving across!!

i was looking at this just now thinking the same

[tomhow]

Where abouts are you Tom? Can't see as on mobile...

just east of Soton

[karlos1983]

Caen looks cold

Edited January 17, 2013 by karlos1983

[Evening thunder]

If you take a look at the Met Office temp. map forecast here: http://www.metoffice...Time=1358445600

and look at times like 6am when the front is over most of the SW, you can see how the temp is expected to drop before and more especially with the front as it pulls in colder air from the SE and evaporative cooling takes effect, with it dropping to at or below freezing for areas away from the coast Dorset/Somerset eastwards, and on higher ground for Devon. Even on the coast and over the sea it only looks to be a couple of degrees above freezing at best Devon eastwards.

If this is correct it will be snow with no problems settling in the areas near/below freezing, but even on the coast of Dorset/Hampshire I wouldn't be surprised to see snow falling although it may not find it quite so easy to settle though could well try, and could be a bit sleety at times right on the coastal fringe.

At home on low ground in East Devon a few miles inland I expect some quite heavy falling snow which may lie or attempt to lie for a bit, and on the hills there (which reach 250m in places) very wintry with heavy blowing snow and 10cm+ Maybe sleety and not settling right on the coast there, turning more rainy through the day.

Edit: am Currently in Egham where there may well to be a bit less precip but no issues settling with temps below 0C, just predicting what may happen at home ect off experience and Met Office forecast maps.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Stormmad26

[cerneman]

Do you mean "back southeasterly"?!

We have a southerly here at the moment (170°), if it veers it will go more SW or even westerly.

Veer = swing clockwise

Back = swing anticlockwise.

Yes to make less complicated call it backing , but not exactly what happening in this situation

[Argyle1980]

Cornwall might get a little bit of the snow in the early hours.

Might be worth staying up for.

But I still think there will be a nationwide snow storm befor this winter is over with us . :-)

Stay safe . From truro

[OldMetMan]

He didnt say there is NO WAY, he was simply saying there is a chance it could be rain. It's not even happened yet. Lets wait and see.

Yes, I've posted below what I consider to be the reasons for the Met O's confidence in there being snow everywhere, I thought it unusual. I hope for all us "coasties" that they turn out to have been justified with their confidence. But I'm long enough in the tooth to remember many past snow non-events so I am always somewhat sceptical!

[windseeker]

agreed just goes to show with all the experienced members and useless met office and all these weather charts and temps are rising and its raining terrible.

Looking out in the solent no real evidence that temps rising, how ever wind has shift marginally more to the south in last hour which may account for the rise just inland. Don't forget the main event is not due for 12 hour so temps should drop over night and winds will be going more to the east. So hope things come good for you.

I like

http://www.bramblemet.co.uk

for looking at current wind and temp along solent

Edited January 17, 2013 by windseeker

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi GTLTW, this is what I found puzzling about the MetO weather warnings, they are normally at pains to exclude the coastal strip if there is any uncertainty about if it'll be rain or snow, so I was trying to fathom the reason for their confidence!

As I mentioned, they seem to be putting their faith in colder air being drawn in from France on the strengthening SE flow, OR it could be that as the frontal zone approaches with a triple-point LP forming, then winds across our area will turn ENE, maybe even NE thus bringing us a land track, rather than a sea fetch.

But to answer your question, I shall be very surprised if immediate coasts from the IOW westward get anything but rain. But it is so finely balanced. A few miles inland it could be a different story.

I notice on the latest surface obs from the N French coast, although the temps are above freezing, the dewpoints are sub-zero, so as the gradient increases, there may be less chance for the air to pick up heat from the Channel.

I shall be watching temps closely throughout the evening to see how things change. But I am not getting too excited until I actually see the snow!!

Thankyou OMM once again.

Do stick around as I am sure, this will be a fascinating watch.

Incidentally, my Temperature is currently 0.4c and even that doesn't sound especially awe-inspiring, once the cloudsheet rolls in.

All we can do, is hope for the best for those in the wintry-mix type locations. The same can't be said for Cornwall sadly as they look set to endure yet more heavy rain.

[sclarke]

As far as I'm concerned, it's still game on for Southampton and us coasties. Not sure why I'm seeing these downbeat posts, when the actual event isn't even here yet - and wasn't forecast to be here until the morning.

I remember the event we had in 2010 very vividly, and I remember these forums saying similar as the coastal cities did see rain/sleet initially, quite hard for a time - but this gradually turned into snow as the night wore on and the winds changed direction, and we had about 5-6cm's in Southampton the next morning.

Snow is a funny thing to forecast, so there's no point in writing off chances until we're actually in the event!

Edited January 17, 2013 by sclarke

[OldMetMan]

Continental cold air showing signs of moving across!!

ing

Yes, that's very interesting. Let's see how it progresses!