South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[Blizzardof82]

Temperature starting to drop 1.6c dew point 0.3c humidity 91%

[gottolovethisweather]

Strong signal for snow inland on IOW in UKMO UKV & UK4 modelling. Basically, increasingly marginal for coastal snow as you head further W towards Portland, Lyme Bay etc and less marginal as you head further E where sea track reduces and thus degree of boundary layer modification from continental feed. Uplands of Dorset show 5-10cm widely early AM before gradual thaw, at least at lower levels, here, Devon & Somerset through Fri afternoon. Hope this helps clarify!

Some words of reason.

[festivalking]

I know how you feel.... I used to live in Plymouth, its so close to the coast that its difficult for snow in that part of the world. But take solice, that when you have more time, which it will, you have high moorland on your doorstep.... Got a feeling they will shut the roads though.

Its good for snow up here, bad for getting out of the village!!

Road closures could scupper my plan. Failing that I'll get to Dousland and walk up to some high moor ground from there.

On another note am thinking of moving to princetown think a land rover might need to purchased if i ever got up there

[Uncle_Barty]

I agree Chief,

I'm actually quite surprised at the confidence of the Met in including all coastal regions in their weather warnings for tomorrow. It's been raining here in Southampton on and off for a couple of hours, temp 3.1 (that could be half a degree too high) with 86% humidity so dewpoint around 1deg.

Admittedly, temps are pretty low over N France and the Low Countries and our point of view here on the coast, with SE-E winds picking up, it MAY pull in some of that colder, drier air. There's too much cloud for any nocturnal cooling so I guess the reasoning by the MetO is that cold continental air.

Past experience has taught me that fronts moving into our area from the W or WSW rarely bring snow to the coastal strip UNLESS the air is exceptionally cold, which it isn't. I saw it snow once here in December 1981 when the temp was around 4deg but it has been VERY cold beforehand.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens later when the wind picks up but I'm not holding my breath here as there have been too many snow non-events before.

Exactly the points I have been making over the past 24-36 hours or so, even quoting the Dec 81 event.

[o0herbie]

gottolovethisweather... what is it doing in newbury now? I'm not too far from you so i am always curious to see what is hitting you as, often, we get it soon after.

I'm between Newbury and Bracknell and we've had some flurries leading to a very thin covering...

A friend between myself and Newbury says it's chucking it down with snow

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Strong signal for snow inland on IOW in UKMO UKV & UK4 modelling. Basically, increasingly marginal for coastal snow as you head further W towards Portland, Lyme Bay etc and less marginal as you head further E where sea track reduces and thus degree of boundary layer modification from continental feed. Uplands of Dorset show 5-10cm widely early AM before gradual thaw, at least at lower levels, here, Devon & Somerset through Fri afternoon. Hope this helps clarify!

Wow thanks so much for that! Gives me a lot of hope now lol just hope it lays n gives us just enough to make a snowman

[iowpompeylee]

I just had a little drive around and this is how the IOW currently stands.

Shanklin 3.4c with sleety rain

Sandown 4.1c with rain

Brading down 2.8c with sleety rain

Ashey down 2.1c with light sleet

Wroxall 3.6c with sleety rain, but the south side of wroxall 2.8c with sleet

Ventnor down 2.4c with sleet

Shanklin down 1.9c with sleety snow.

can you do that on the hour every hour please mate haha... Edited January 17, 2013 by iowpompeylee

[MR EXTREMES]

ok this would explain why snow earlier today only little flurry but it also explains the rain now.......http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=last24hours

[nivvydoh]

temps here have slowly risen during the day now 5c dew point is -2 The wind has got up a little now making it feel very much colder. Hubby has just set off to work I have told him to keep checking the weather overnight, not that I am expecting snow here but where he works is at a higher elevation.

kaz

Not so sure. Run the sequence from 3 am to 9 am on this meto chart

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/barnstaple#?tab=map&locId=310004&map=SignificantWeather&fcTime=1358424000&zoom=9&lon=-4.06&lat=51.08

[coram]

Has been light snow here in north east Hampshire for quite a few hours and there is a dusting of snow on the ground. Temperature at 8pm was 0.7 and therefore not much of a worry in terms of snow tomorrow morning/afternoon. Obviously warmer and therefore more marginal for you guys right on the coast to the south and west of here. I hope it works out for you.

[Dean E]

And my temperature is now 10.7c... okay something is wrong with my station! Couldn't come at a worst time...

SM

[Paul T]

To give some idea of whats programmed, in terms of Precipitation building to our SW, the GFS 12z charts give a good idea:

Timings may vary slightly of course...

6PM: Its approaching, but mainly 'Blue', max ppn rates of 3/4mm an hour.

9PM: It builds as it approaches: PPN rates of up to 7-8mm an hour.

MIDNIGHT: Continues to build, PPN rates now up to 10mm an hour widely.

3AM: Firmly over the SW with PPN rate still widely between 7-10mm.

[fUnKy]

I know how you feel.... I used to live in Plymouth, its so close to the coast that its difficult for snow in that part of the world. But take solice, that when you have more time, which it will, you have high moorland on your doorstep.... Got a feeling they will shut the roads though.

Its good for snow up here, bad for getting out of the village!!

That's why i was wondering about Burrator... might still be able to get to that part near Dousland. Have to play it by ear I guess.

[dancing daisy]

I think I am suffering from snow fatigue and it's not even here yet, Can anyone give me a forecast for Glastonbury festival please?

[Mark]

Why are people so obsessed with the temperature right now?!? I'm in Yeovil and it's currently 4.5c thoogh the dew point is dropping. Admittedly I am in the centre of the town so a slightly higher temp is expected, but it can, and will, drop like a stone once the right conditions arrive...

Patience people... patience

[iceman1991]

-1 here and snow coming down in big chunks now been snowing here since 11 this morning and wasnt forecasted. wonder if will get more then 5-10cm round here if i remember rightly 2009 feb they said 5cm one night and we ended up with 20cm over that night, so hopefly that will be the case tonight for us touch wood lol.

[MR EXTREMES]

And my temperature is now 10.7c... okay something is wrong with my station! Couldn't come at a worst time...

SM

must be the rain ):

[kevvo]

Wind is still Southwesterly here on the Dorset coast.

Here's hoping for a more southeasterly influence as the front approaches.

Umbrellas or snowboots?

[TheHumph]

And my temperature is now 10.7c... okay something is wrong with my station! Couldn't come at a worst time...

SM

I think there must be something wrong with that station! Still light snow here over the other side of Butser and feels very cold out. There can't possibly be a 9-10 degree temp difference!

[fUnKy]

Road closures could scupper my plan. Failing that I'll get to Dousland and walk up to some high moor ground from there.

On another note am thinking of moving to princetown think a land rover might need to purchased if i ever got up there

great minds.

[A.J]

I think I am suffering from snow fatigue and it's not even here yet, Can anyone give me a forecast for Glastonbury festival please?

63F, monsoon, gale force south westerly....same as every year!

[divadee]

Temp very slowly rising here. Gone from 4.8c at 19.00 to 5.0c at 20.00. Dp has stayed constant at 0.

[Chief Wiggam]

Wind starting to build

[Bobafet]

Rain starting to come down quite heavy in ventnor iow, with sw winds at the moment.

[MR EXTREMES]

tempretures have risen from 2c at midday to 4c at 8pm this evening that would explain alot but the worrying thing is theres a southeasterly flow.