South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[gottolovethisweather]

Just looked out window and rain

Give it another six hours.

[festivalking]

Its only 20 mins up to dartmoor for you mate!

Yep first thing saturday morning I'm heading up great mis tor!!

[chestnutbullets]

Hi all, don't normally post, more of a lurker! I live in St Briavels in the Forest of Dean.it's been snowing heavy wet flakes for about an hour now, and we've got at least a cm covering! Precip is originating from the Bristol Channel, and seeing this is well before the main front arrives I'm thinking this could be really good!

[Bobafet]

Wind starting to get up on the south of the iow hopefully bringing the colder air with it!!

[jessandjon]

Tbh now this wind and rain we keep getting is a but much now, good job I look forward to summer as well as winter!!! Is the weather we get over coming days due to the ssw thingy?

[Dean E]

Trending the right way fo sure.

If you're getting a bit lost as to what the latest is or was, you can do no worse than checking out the following post which links to many another.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2519970

Thanks GTLTW!

Another useful site for people to view is weather underground's 'Wunder map'

Here's a quick screen shot of Northern France, was around +4c about an hour ago, but now look at those surface temperatures. DP are available if you navigate in the side menu.

SM

[musician]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Dorsetbred]

Ah, finally the wind has changed direction, and the temperature is beginning to fall, phew (wipes furrowed brow)

[Bristawl Si]

Just looked out window and rain

Still sleety here.

Main front wont arrive til early hours. The stuff now is residual and on edge of the precipitation thats been in cotswolds for last couple of hours.

[fUnKy]

As far as I can see the temperature profiles across the south coast match what the mesoscale models predicted earlier. The same models show the temperatures falling very slowly if at all until between 12 and 3am, when the drop off rapidly. So, I'm at a loss to understand why there is a constant stream of posters who seem to appear from down here to either moan about downgrades, the current temperature or look for some kind of reassurance. How about everybody waits until tomorrow evening before moaning about not having any snow? If you haven't got any on the ground by then, then you'll have every right to have a moan. But surely not now? Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. Waiting and seeing with the Mk 1 eyeball is surely the best way forward.

Anyway, rant over. The 18z NAE should start dribbling out soon. Hard to imagine there being too many changes now. Latest UKV seems to up the precipitation on the front a bit from the last run. Also shows some potentially hefty showers around once the frontal wave develops into the depression.

If you're on the west facing coast west or south of the moors you already know you wont get anything other than a flake or two in the rain. No need to wait to find out. Anyway, i am resigned to my fate and haven';t moaned about it. Just jealous and also excited for those that get the big event.

[fergieweather]

!

Wow that's a lot warmer than here on iow i always thought we were the warmest lol Temp here is 2.1 and dew point 1.1 still not gud for snow tho

Strong signal for snow inland on IOW in UKMO UKV & UK4 modelling. Basically, increasingly marginal for coastal snow as you head further W towards Portland, Lyme Bay etc and less marginal as you head further E where sea track reduces and thus degree of boundary layer modification from continental feed. Uplands of Dorset show 5-10cm widely early AM before gradual thaw, at least at lower levels, here, Devon & Somerset through Fri afternoon. Hope this helps clarify!

[Lynxus]

Looking very quiet behind that first band....... Erm...

[Jamie R]

I just had a little drive around and this is how the IOW currently stands.

Shanklin 3.4c with sleety rain

Sandown 4.1c with rain

Brading down 2.8c with sleety rain

Ashey down 2.1c with light sleet

Wroxall 3.6c with sleety rain, but the south side of wroxall 2.8c with sleet

Ventnor down 2.4c with sleet

Shanklin down 1.9c with sleety snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

I must admit, I am getting paranoid that the temperature isn't dropping, and is above freezing. The snow isn't settling, and if it gets too wet then I'll be worried about tomorrows settling. Currently 1C and has been forr about two hours now.

your temps are not to bad here in porsmouth 4c and as i expected the colder air is being mixed out gets any milder we can forget our chances tomorrow.

as it will take alot of cold air modification to get the temps to the right point for snow fall just look at this http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/haverfordwest#?tab=map&map=ScreenTemperature&fcTime=1358409600&zoom=8&lon=-1.17&lat=50.73

[fUnKy]

Yep first thing saturday morning I'm heading up great mis tor!!

Do you think they'll get snow up sheepstor or around burator? or is that a bit low?

[Gas Ed]

Just steady rain here in North Bristol for the past 30 mins, although it's now eased off to light drizzle.

Temp steady at 2.2

[wightwootton]

Here we go!! Closer still!! Isle of White here we come!

[Dunlop Dave]

Wind now f4-5 over here from ese. Biting cold, didn't enjoy the dog walk !!

[gottolovethisweather]

As far as I can see the temperature profiles across the south coast match what the mesoscale models predicted earlier. The same models show the temperatures falling very slowly if at all until between 12 and 3am, when the drop off rapidly. So, I'm at a loss to understand why there is a constant stream of posters who seem to appear from down here to either moan about downgrades, the current temperature or look for some kind of reassurance. How about everybody waits until tomorrow evening before moaning about not having any snow? If you haven't got any on the ground by then, then you'll have every right to have a moan. But surely not now? Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. Waiting and seeing with the Mk 1 eyeball is surely the best way forward.

Anyway, rant over. The 18z NAE should start dribbling out soon. Hard to imagine there being too many changes now. Latest UKV seems to up the precipitation on the front a bit from the last run. Also shows some potentially hefty showers around once the frontal wave develops into the depression.

Yes, there are a lot of conflicting posts in here at times and I have attempted to find a few answers, but as you say, it does seem that one or two posters in here appear to be time-travellers.

Anyway, we'll ALL leave it there for now and start thinking about cosying up to the latest models when they roll.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

Have tons of revision to do for Monday (bit behind). Might try and head up for a couple of hours tomorrow but worried they'll close the roads up towards you. Makes me sad when i miss out. Just want to see it actually falling past my window again and being able to run out in to the street like a five year old.

I know how you feel.... I used to live in Plymouth, its so close to the coast that its difficult for snow in that part of the world. But take solice, that when you have more time, which it will, you have high moorland on your doorstep.... Got a feeling they will shut the roads though.

Yep first thing saturday morning I'm heading up great mis tor!!

Its good for snow up here, bad for getting out of the village!!

[Popuplights]

light rain, 1.8 C here in Winchester

Paul

[chris55]

Looking very quiet behind that first band....... Erm...

It's an evolving system, stop panicking!!lol.

[festivalking]

Strong signal for snow inland on IOW in UKMO UKV & UK4 modelling. Basically, increasingly marginal for coastal snow as you head further W towards Portland, Lyme Bay etc and less marginal as you head further E where sea track reduces and thus degree of boundary layer modification from continental feed. Uplands of Dorset show 5-10cm widely early AM before gradual thaw, at least at lower levels, here, Devon & Somerset through Fri afternoon. Hope this helps clarify!

Does height play a hand in how marginal it can be for coastal snow? Say would 400ft like golden cap in lyme bay be partial to snow of the fact its on the coast scupper any snow opportunity?

[Sungirl]

gottolovethisweather... what is it doing in newbury now? I'm not too far from you so i am always curious to see what is hitting you as, often, we get it soon after.

[gottolovethisweather]

Ah, finally the wind has changed direction, and the temperature is beginning to fall, phew (wipes furrowed brow)

And your Temperature is now is..............................................