South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[wightwootton]

Yes, that's very interesting. Let's see how it progresses!

Moving in!!!!

[SupaSnowy]

Sorry i was on my Smokeone account, my old account forgot i had it.

But yes, its going to be very close for us so close to the the coast. So who is going to be up all night it see how it goes? Right now we have a wetish ground from the light rain the past few hours.

[Bolton67]

Yes, that's very interesting. Let's see how it progresses!

OldMetMan, i wished you lived in The East Midlands, would love to see your fantastic knowledge posted in our area.

Hope you get a good surprise.

[karlos1983]

Sorry i was on my Smokeone account, my old account forgot i had it.

But yes, its going to be very close for us so close to the the coast. So who is going to be up all night it see how it goes? Right now we have a wetish ground from the light rain the past few hours.

There is no way I will be sleeping, unless a downgrade appears, I'm in for the long run!!!

[SupaSnowy]

OldMetMan, i wished you lived in The East Midlands, would love to see your fantastic knowledge posted in our area.

Hope you get a good surprise.

Stay away, he is ours haha.

[gottolovethisweather]

If you take a look at the Met Office temp. map forecast here: http://www.metoffice...Time=1358445600

and look at times like 6am when the front is over most of the SW, you can see how the temp is expected to drop before and more especially with and with the front as it pulls in colder air from the SE and evaporative cooling takes effect, with it dropping to at or below freezing for areas away from the coast Dorset/Somerset eastwards, and on higher ground for Devon. Even on the coast and over the sea it only looks to be a couple of degrees above freezing at best Devon eastwards.

If this is correct it will be snow with no problems settling in the areas near/below freezing, but even on the coast of Dorset/Hampshire I wouldn't be surprised to see snow falling although it may not find it quite so easy to settle though could well try, and could be a bit sleety at times right on the coastal fringe.

At home on low ground in East Devon a few miles inland I expect some quite heavy falling snow which may lie or attempt to lie for a bit, and on the hills there (which reach 250m in places) very wintry with heavy blowing snow and 10cm+ Maybe sleety and not settling right on the coast there, turning more rainy through the day.

Edit: am Currently in Egham where there may well to be a bit less precip but no issues settling with temps below 0C, just predicting what may happen at home ect off experience and Met Office forecast maps.

I didn't know that particular scale existed, well spotted.

I did post up this morning, what seems like days ago now, the timescales, based on those MetO forecasts, at which the likes of Bournemouth, Exeter etc. were showing snowfall, albiet eventually turning to rain. However it seems we all have our opinions on such matters and largely ignore whatever the models, fergieweather et.al are saying.

I know it is always a rollercoaster for snowfest conditions down in certain parts of the costa del South Coast but I am always willing to listen to others, who should by rights, know their stuff. Marginal ain't half the word it seems.

So where are we right now, in the debate, any further forward.

Ha ha, I thought not.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Moving in!!!!

Is this likely to be snow,sleet or rain on iow tonight?

Btw I'm cautiously optimistic for snow on iow tomo

[Wilxy]

Nothing beats a chicken pie on a cold wintry evening

Still snowing.

[MR EXTREMES]

bit harsh to call me a drama queen when the met office are saying 9pm today heavy rain isle of white porstmouth.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

then again there does seem to be some wintryness in there just saying thats all.

[iowpompeylee]

Moving in!!!!

that's very interesting.would be delighted 4 u to post some updates on that chart as the evening goes on...lol if poss mate? Edited January 17, 2013 by iowpompeylee

[Theresnoway]

bit harsh to call me a drama queen when the met office are saying 9pm today heavy rain isle of white porstmouth.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Apologies, my remarks were not based on just that one post!

Why are you surprised at rain now when the snow has never been forecast until tomorrow?

[cerneman]

Indeed he didn't and nor do the professionals.

As I see things, we might as NEVER bother having any chances of something really special as some people have already surrendered.

It happens every time.

Roll on summer and off to the Dorset beaches I go. If it does indeed snow as suggested (albeit in brief period overnight), a whole host of you Dorsetonians might be owing me a beer.

Buy you couple Pints, You will need them,,,,,,,,,,,,,Stress Moderating tonight on here,

[SupaSnowy]

bit harsh to call me a drama queen when the met office are saying 9pm today heavy rain isle of white porstmouth.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Relax, lets see what happens when the main band comes. I can understand how you feel as i live right next to you, its always been more of a let down then not. Stay up late with me, lets see how we go :-)

Edited January 17, 2013 by SupaSnowy

[TropicThunder]

As far as I'm concerned, it's still game on for Southampton and us coasties. Not sure why I'm seeing these downbeat posts, when the actual event isn't even here yet - and wasn't forecast to be here until the morning.

I remember the event we had in 2010 very vividly, and I remember these forums saying similar as the coastal cities did see rain/sleet initially, quite hard for a time - but this gradually turned into snow as the night wore on and the winds changed direction, and we had about 5-6cm's in Southampton the next morning.

Snow is a funny thing to forecast, so there's no point in writing off chances until we're actually in the event!

I live right by the waterfront in the centre of town, yet in that Dec 2010 event I had 6 inches here, just shows it is possible.

[gottolovethisweather]

As far as I'm concerned, it's still game on for Southampton and us coasties. Not sure why I'm seeing these downbeat posts, when the actual event isn't even here yet - and wasn't forecast to be here until the morning.

I remember the event we had in 2010 very vividly, and I remember these forums saying similar as the coastal cities did see rain/sleet initially, quite hard for a time - but this gradually turned into snow as the night wore on and the winds changed direction, and we had about 5-6cm's in Southampton the next morning.

Snow is a funny thing to forecast, so there's no point in writing off chances until we're actually in the event!

Ah hello clarkie, If I may call you that Sir.

Yes I seem to remember these debates often occuring. For the record, do you know to which direction the wind eventually backed, by any chance?

I think, questioning these things is the best way to find appropriate answers.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Timer]

Still snowing lightly here - now a dusting on everything. Been coming down for about three hours.

Interesting that it now shows a rain/snow (sleet) mix on NW radar but falling as snow. Temp here is 0.3C

[PompeyFC]

made my other half beef stew and dumplings lol - she loves me big time now

temp on gosport is 5.3 degrees lol, and dewpoint 2.3...

[kernowman]

Raining quite hard now in West Cornwall, you guys eastwards are in for a treat tomorrow morning.

[Bristawl Si]

Light snow falling here in SG, North Bristol, S Glos.

Maybe a bit sleety at times.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Bristle boy

[iowpompeylee]

Is this likely to be snow,sleet or rain on iow tonight?

Btw I'm cautiously optimistic for snow on iow tomo

it's turning to snow as the very cold winds off the continent feed in!

[jtay]

bit harsh to call me a drama queen when the met office are saying 9pm today heavy rain isle of white porstmouth.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Can I suggest you read Stormmad26's post above. We're 6 hours away from the excitement and his link will explain why.

I'm much further inland than you and it's now raining again. Doesn't make a blind bit of difference.

[nick sussex]

then again there does seem to be some wintryness in there just saying thats all.

MR look at the dew points in ne France thats where the flow will be ahead of the front, if you don't calm down you're going to be a nervous wreck and will have to be sedated!!!

As I said earlier the flow at present is modifying the cold and dew points along the south coast, as soon as the wind turns se/ese you'll notice a drop in temps and dew points.

[sclarke]

Ah hello clarkie, If I may call you that Sir.

Yes I seem to remember these debates often occuring. For the record, do you know to which direction the wind eventually backed, by any chance?

I think, questioning these things is the best way to find appropriate answers.

Call me what you like! I've had worse!

You're testing my memory now...but I seem to remember initially having an Wstly wind, it then banked South Estly IIRC - bringing the cold air over to mix with the PPN that was coming over.

I'm pretty sure that's what happened, although someone correct me if I'm wrong as the 2009 event here was pretty similar in terms of totals.

[Devondelight]

Moving in!!!!

Where do you get this radar?

[Argyle1980]

Raining quite hard now in West Cornwall, you guys eastwards are in for a treat tomorrow morning.