South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[cerneman]

I've just done a quick paint job here:

The area to look for is northern and ne France, bear in mind when you look at the fax chart although it might look like a more s/se flow because you have high pressure to the ne with low pressure out west then the actual surface flow should pull round more to the east or ese.

Heres the link for that, the key is the dew point.

http://www.meteociel...nt-de-rosee.php

The actual flow at the moment has moved towards the s/sw and thats why you're seeing that temporary elevation in temps and dew points.

Thanks Nick,

[khodds]

still raining?

It was 10 mins ago, only the odd spot, nothing to worry about!

[Dean E]

Thank you! Very helpful for me aswell, as I'm here worrying myself about the rain after the event... So you think it won't rain after? Thanks for your input snow mania

I'm not so sure about the geography of your area (all I know is that you're somewhere inland!) so couldn't really give a specific outcome. Not sure if anyone else with more local knowledge could help?

Current thinking is there further South West you are, the more likely it'll turn back to rain later tomorrow. The further away from the coast and with some altitude (Dorest/Lyme bay Westwards) the better your chances.

SM

[Southern Storm]

Thanks nick, feeling a little colder here and we have a sleety mix.

Not long before it turns to snow.

[Dean E]

I've just done a quick paint job here:

The area to look for is northern and ne France, bear in mind when you look at the fax chart although it might look like a more s/se flow because you have high pressure to the ne with low pressure out west then the actual surface flow should pull round more to the east or ese.

Heres the link for that, the key is the dew point.

http://www.meteociel...nt-de-rosee.php

The actual flow at the moment has moved towards the s/sw and thats why you're seeing that temporary elevation in temps and dew points.

That's a great chart nick! Clearly showing why coastal stretches of our region have a great chance tonight/tomorrow

SM

[MR EXTREMES]

i tell u what its raining here on the southcoast in portsmouth not happy me and my daughter have had a arguement because shes convinced its snow and started to cry i said its sleet and im hoping the main event will come because im going to have one very dissapointed 9year old.

[Sungirl]

Sounds like be pyjama party on here tonight

Sounds like fun

I'm in PJs already, fire burning and glass of wine in hand Lets party

[dec10snow]

I'm not so sure about the geography of your area (all I know is that you're somewhere inland!) so couldn't really give a specific outcome. Not sure if anyone else with more local knowledge could help?

Current thinking is there further South West you are, the more likely it'll turn back to rain later tomorrow. The further away from the coast and with some altitude (Dorest/Lyme bay Westwards) the better your chances.

SM

Okay, thank you well this is me on google maps...

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&safe=off&client=safari&biw=320&bih=450&q=taunton&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x486d8a921fb7907f:0x75eb0e344edee9fb,Taunton,+Somerset&gl=uk&sa=X&ei=VTv4UObbL9SZ0QXf7YDwBw&ved=0CBoQ8gEwAA

I'm about 30m asl, and as you say, quite far inland, but quite far west.

Edited January 17, 2013 by dec10snow

[Snowfan50]

So what time is this front ment to hit land, BBC is showing it hitting devon at 2am but looks on the radar it will be earlier?

[Bobafet]

Don't worry folks the main event is yet to come, take what you are getting now as the qualifying round!! Positive thoughts people!!

[chris55]

I've just done a quick paint job here:

The area to look for is northern and ne France, bear in mind when you look at the fax chart although it might look like a more s/se flow because you have high pressure to the ne with low pressure out west then the actual surface flow should pull round more to the east or ese.

Heres the link for that, the key is the dew point.

http://www.meteociel...nt-de-rosee.php

The actual flow at the moment has moved towards the s/sw and thats why you're seeing that temporary elevation in temps and dew points.

Excellent post Nick. This is why all the Classic snow events in the Westcountry are always with a south east "pick up".

[ARTDEMOLE]

That shows a lot of snow hours...

[TheHumph]

So what time is this front ment to hit land, BBC is showing it hitting devon at 2am but looks on the radar it will be earlier?

I think it will probably slow a little once it hits the cold air of the block.

[khodds]

Sounds like be pyjama party on here tonight

Yep! In mine already! May even open some wine to celebrate!

[Mark Neal.]

WOW! Wasn't expecting this, the snow has picked up in the last 10 minutes, coming down about 4/10 and we have a covering on most things apart from the road, though in parts starting to settle :-) Very interesting indeed :o

[Rustynailer]

Haha that would be a classic case! I think the island has a good solid chance of something reasonable (away from the south and east coast).

I have plans to go up Chillerton down if things 'work out'.

The main issue will be quite warm ground temperatures in many locations on the island.

I made this crude map for a friend of mine. The small clustering of heavier snow marks where the downs are.

That map looks pretty good to me, although if the ground manages to freeze before the snow falls I think you could add a bit more red. As it goes though, we are next to the sea, and in that your map is a safe bet for the minimum IMO.

Deepest snow tomorrow on the Island Jamie?

My guess 10 inches somewhere like Chillerton!!

[dancing daisy]

Also in PJ's and the wine will be opened in a bit.

[karlos1983]

Oh darn, forgot to get beer on the way home, and the wife's at work till midnight!! Kids in bed!'

Edited January 17, 2013 by karlos1983

[Dunlop Dave]

Why do I have work at 6 am !!!!????? Best get the sledge out, put the car lights on at have some fun at 4am !! Don't care I'm 32 !!!

[Iceberg]

Nmm has some good totals from the run that's coming out now. 10-20cm widely upto 7.00pm tomorrow.

Difficult to see sorry about that

[divadee]

If you want a laugh whilst waiting for the snow. Read the comments from the wannabe forecasters on this local news story about the snow.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/10168747.County_prepares_for_chaos_as_snow_warning_upgraded_to_amber/#commentsList

[nick sussex]

thanks nick s nice of you to pop in is the likehood of snow to rain on the southcoast a likely outcome ?

You're welcome.

I've just had a look at the latest fax charts. You should probably be okay in the Portsmouth area.

At the moment the fax chart places any less cold air further south into the Channel even if that changes a bit there isn't really any likelihood of some quick thaw as the winds then switch round towards the east.

[Dunlop Dave]

You're welcome.

I've just had a look at the latest fax charts. You should probably be okay in the Portsmouth area.

At the moment the fax chart places any less cold air further south into the Channel even if that changes a bit there isn't really any likelihood of some quick thaw as the winds then switch round towards the east.

If that's the case will we need northern France to bail us out here ??

[island lad]

That map looks pretty good to me, although if the ground manages to freeze before the snow falls I think you could add a bit more red. As it goes though, we are next to the sea, and in that your map is a safe bet for the minimum IMO.

Deepest snow tomorrow on the Island Jamie?

My guess 10 inches somewhere like Chillerton!!

Looks good for me, I'm in horringford. (Just up from arreton )

[Polar Bear]

Well an email tonight from the chairman at work saying significant snow due tomorrow so make sure for some you take work home. Good heh? I am impressed. Then following that someone mailed heavy snow falling near m4 junction 15 at Swindon... Going to be interesting!