Scotland Regional Discussion - Friday 18th >>

[A Winter's Tale]

It was nice to see some snow earlier which left some deposited flakes on car roof tops.I still Don't expect any lying snow by morning.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Models suggest a more general risk across the east coast this evening rather than any major concentration of precipitation, which suggests further shifting around of the shower vectors:

Interesting to note that there seems to be an hourly phasing of these showers, with one roughly every half hour hitting north Edinburgh-south Fife and another hitting north Fife-Dundee half an hour after that. The former of this phase hit further south so I'd expect the latter to as well.

[Snooz]

BBC's '63 Big Freeze summary..

• a: here's the video
  
• b: watch from 42 mins.. for the best bit "english don't wear enough clothes" (Scotland had already had 50 days +)
  
• c: (very forward of her)
  
• d: 42.52 "Black Woolly Pants!!"
  
• e: 43.26 The Analysis - that tune..
  

Edited January 19, 2013 by Snooz

[doctormog]

Doctormog fingers x'd here feeling very left out now

Yes indeed, fingers and toes! My dew point temperature is way down now and I would expect any precipitation to be pretty dryish snow.

On that subject the 18z NAE has upped the precipitation a little this evening but I still think it will be very hit and miss:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/19/basis18/ukuk/prty/13012000_1918.gif

[GraemeB]

Still going in Stirling .. I think cheggers may have something with the after dark hypothesis. We have had nothing all day, but as soon as it got dark bam....

Interesting

[thebigyin]

Well spotted LS. I had not realised the uppers were quite that cold out east!

Been wee flurries for last hour, but very fine and easy to miss! It's not below freezing but everything seems to be freezing up and snow falling is nice and dry. Hopefully these showers get going - cant see anything offshore for here doc? Nice conveyer set up for Lothians again it looks.

[BleakMidwinter]

BBC's '63 Big Freeze summary..

• a: here's the video
  
• b: watch from 42 mins.. for the best bit "english don't wear enough clothes" (Scotland had already had 50 days +)
  
• (very forward of her)
  
• c: 42.52 "Black Woolly Pants!!"
  
• 43.26 The Analysis - that tune..
  

If we're ever due another 2010-11 snow-bound winter, if the more knowledgeable in here can give me enough warning, I'll get going on knitting everyone Black Woolly Pants to wear under our kilts!

[Hairy Celt]

Neighbour across the street has spent that past hr clearing his drive and pavement at side of his house. It's covered again already. Lol

I do that just to make sure it keeps snowing!!

[Buriedundersnow]

LS could u tell me if u look at the first pic the isobar thing with 134 is over fife then in the second pic its moved to the north east does that mean if thats moving north theres a chance the moisture will move back north with it

[Hairy Celt]

Models suggest a more general risk across the east coast this evening rather than any major concentration of precipitation, which suggests further shifting around of the shower vectors:

Interesting to note that there seems to be an hourly phasing of these showers, with one roughly every half hour hitting north Edinburgh-south Fife and another hitting north Fife-Dundee half an hour after that. The former of this phase hit further south so I'd expect the latter to as well.

They don't even bother putting a 0 over the Black Isle - the snawshield's so effective, it's taken for granted and they don't want to waste electrons or ink.

[jon_d1983]

Temp has definitely dropped a bit, wind is feeling more chilly too! Not much happening in north sea tho just now showers seem to be further south towards Dundee/fife

[A Winter's Tale]

Still nothing here, a wee flurry earlier but that is all. Everything just dies before it makes it here.

Even the Arrochar Alps have seen heavier and more precipitation.

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS could u tell me if u look at the first pic the isobar thing with 134 is over fife then in the second pic its moved to the north east does that mean if thats moving north theres a chance the moisture will move back north with it

Yes, generally the convective activity moving northwards through the evening, albeit slowly. Could still be a few more hours of it yet though for central areas I reckon.

GFS 18Z, with the help of a more southerly flow and just holding the uppers, keeps Monday as an all snow event

Would be touch and go of course but if it remained as snow and managed to stick we could be looking at somewhere in the region of 4-6 inches, perhaps even, going by this, 8 inches to a foot of additional snowfall from Sunday evening onwards.

[doctormog]

Been wee flurries for last hour, but very fine and easy to miss! It's not below freezing but everything seems to be freezing up and snow falling is nice and dry. Hopefully these showers get going - cant see anything offshore for here doc? Nice conveyer set up for Lothians again it looks.

The radar only seems to start picking them up (range issue?) relatively close to the coast but there seems to be more activity developing directly out east which, if true, will become evident in the next hour or two. It may just be very light but I am watching developments juist in case: http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/ZoomRadar?lat=57.205&lon=-2.172727272727272&z=7&x=342&y=114

I agree though that things do currently look more lively for areas further south.

[Buriedundersnow]

Yes, generally the convective activity moving northwards through the evening, albeit slowly. Could still be a few more hours of it yet though for central areas I reckon.

GFS 18Z, with the help of a more southerly flow and just holding the uppers, keeps Monday as an all snow event

Would be touch and go of course but if it remained as snow and managed to stick we could be looking at somewhere in the region of 4-6 inches, perhaps even, going by this, 8 inches to a foot of additional snowfall from Sunday evening onwards.

cheers for the answer

[A Winter's Tale]

Even the Arrochar Alps have seen heavier and more precipitation.

v

A Forth-Loch Fyne streamer

[lorenzo]

It is dry here this evening (as far as I can see) but is that real genuine authentic precipitation out to sea heading in this direction or is it some of that nasty Sassenach-inspired anaprop designed to fool me into thinking it may actually snow in Aberdeen? Answers on a postcard...

Looking at the various attributes on NMM, found the vertical velocity 700mb charts, happy to be corrected here as just guesswork on my part. Earlier this evening you can see a broad area of negative values off the East Coast, if I am reading this correctly then this would keep things flat, later on then the values return to neutral allowing more excitation as the flow progresses onshore.

BBC's '63 Big Freeze summary..

• a: here's the video
  
• b: watch from 42 mins.. for the best bit "english don't wear enough clothes" (Scotland had already had 50 days +)
  
• c: (very forward of her)
  
• d: 42.52 "Black Woolly Pants!!"
  
• e: 43.26 The Analysis - that tune..
  

LOL - Had no idea how that made it into the programme? Perhaps fishnets and Bridget Jones pants were all the rage in 63 ! Totally agree about the tune, tis a goodie !

[GoldenJackel]

Yes, generally the convective activity moving northwards through the evening, albeit slowly. Could still be a few more hours of it yet though for central areas I reckon.

GFS 18Z, with the help of a more southerly flow and just holding the uppers, keeps Monday as an all snow event

Would be touch and go of course but if it remained as snow and managed to stick we could be looking at somewhere in the region of 4-6 inches, perhaps even, going by this, 8 inches to a foot of additional snowfall from Sunday evening onwards.

That darkest blob on the second pic looks to be right over my house!

[Big Innes Madori]

I promised I would have it white for your return Big Innes and white it is.

Aye,

Yer word is yer bond HS!

It's lookin fair braw oot there noo mate.

Big Innes

[howham]

Temps dropped to 0.4C and a few flakes fluttering down. If I can't get more snow I'd take some frost to consolidate what we've got.

[snowy owl]

DH about to be getting settled for MOTD. Me settled with the laptop. Perfecto.

Now more snow has fallen to give another lovely all white covering even after all today's efforts to shift the fallen snow off the drive/path.

Whats next I wonder? Tmrw still looking ok then by all accounts. I can't quite believe that another blast is coming this way.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Yes, generally the convective activity moving northwards through the evening, albeit slowly. Could still be a few more hours of it yet though for central areas I reckon.

GFS 18Z, with the help of a more southerly flow and just holding the uppers, keeps Monday as an all snow event

Would be touch and go of course but if it remained as snow and managed to stick we could be looking at somewhere in the region of 4-6 inches, perhaps even, going by this, 8 inches to a foot of additional snowfall from Sunday evening onwards.

Sorry dude. Another BS chart for me - seen this pink covered chart twice now (on different snowfall potential) and I have no reason to believe it'll be correct third time round.

[101_North]

Any gaps in the snow after today's thaw, gritting anf fun are very gradually filling up. Almost total cover again albeit thin in places. More showers please :-)

[edo]

things actually looking decent again for convection tomorrow before even the main event happens....could be some couple of days for many....SS may have to exit his hoose fae the roof

[Big Innes Madori]

Well, tomorrow is Snowday Eve, and then the day after that is Snowday.

Welcome back - we kept it on hold for you!

Aye, we have the top team in here.

That could be The Day After Tomorrow BMw!!!

Big Innes