North West England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

[Joe Bloggs]

The 12 gfs is delaying the system a bit but then gives a decent fall of snow to the east and north of the region. The main band arrives early on Monday.

Joe, you are faster than me! haha

Hehe!

One thing to note is that we are in positive dewpoint territory by 12z Monday - that would mean rain.

[itsnowjoke]

Have you viewed the precip charts on Net Weather right up to 36 hours wish that would come off

0c here.

[chiffer]

12z is a good one to follow, the 6z has been to keen to keep progression to far east recently.

[greybing]

Snowdrifts in Keswick this morning:

Thats exactly what it looks like here,very slow thaw with a temperature now of 1.9c and with a couple cm of snow it doesn't have a chance

[karyo]

Hehe!

One thing to note is that we are in positive dewpoint territory by 12z Monday - that would mean rain.

Why did you have to spoil the mood? lol

The precipitation type chart is snow, I think we should be ok.

[Joe Bloggs]

I think if 12z GFS verified Manchester and the east of the region would wake up to light snow cover on Monday morning, so that's something I guess :-). Would be a potentially snowy rush hour, but nothing major!

I do rate the GFS precipitation output so fingers crossed. Would be marginal from the west temporarily on Monday though, before all freezing overnight.

Why did you have to spoil the mood? lol

The precipitation type chart is snow, I think we should be ok.

Lol!!!! Sorry!

It's a good run relatively speaking.. Fingers crossed eh!

[Joe Bloggs]

12z GFS - more snow reaching Manchester early Tuesday morning, heavier stuff this time , a bit marginal though

Edited January 19, 2013 by Joe Bloggs

[greybing]

I can't see that unless the cloud clears. Infact, if it doesn't I wouldn't surprise it only gets down to -1C.

In some places with very little snow cover and cloud I would expect it to hardly reach zero.This most certainly will be the case where I am with a temp now of 1.9c and very patchy snow cover and cloud. Edited January 19, 2013 by greybing

[The Northern Ramper]

Having viewed the GFS and Nae i would say it is good again for the east of the region and poor for the west, if you are looking for snow Sunday into Monday.

Monday into Tuesday shows snow across the region.

[karyo]

12z GFS - more snow reaching Manchester early Tuesday morning, heavier stuff this time , a bit marginal though

Yes, we have this slack area of low pressure with bands of precipitation cropping up unexpectedly - I love this type of set up!

[The Northern Ramper]

I think if 12z GFS verified Manchester and the east of the region would wake up to light snow cover on Monday morning, so that's something I guess :-). Would be a potentially snowy rush hour, but nothing major!

I do rate the GFS precipitation output so fingers crossed. Would be marginal from the west temporarily on Monday though, before all freezing overnight.

Lol!!!! Sorry!

It's a good run relatively speaking.. Fingers crossed eh!

It's an excellent run for short-term snow chances.

Now all we have to work out is how it can best avoid the region and we will have the forecast nailed

[Barmada Casten]

Think I'm done with this site for now guys. No chance of any significant snow for my area (South Lakeland) so I'm done. We've missed out so much and destined for f' all any time soon.

All the best,

Barmada Casten

[Joe Bloggs]

Sorry for the running commentary, but 12z MetO isn't bad, snow for the east of the region Sunday night

[itsnowjoke]

Think I'm done with this site for now guys. No chance of any significant snow for my area (South Lakeland) so I'm done. We've missed out so much and destined for f' all any time soon.

All the best,

Barmada Casten

i know how you feel all the best

Any rogue showers going to get here tonight anybody ?

[The Northern Ramper]

Sorry for the running commentary, but 12z MetO isn't bad, snow for the east of the region Sunday night

Personally i find the best thing to do is let the run unfold first

[Brass_Monkeys]

UKMO +72hrs - Almost looks like a repeat of Friday with the SW and Wales in the firing line and maybe the far South of the NW

[Joe Bloggs]

Personally i find the best thing to do is let the run unfold first

Well no, not really. As I am interested in the potential for Sunday night into Monday.

But thanks for the advice.

[karyo]

Sorry for the running commentary, but 12z MetO isn't bad, snow for the east of the region Sunday night

It also has colder uppers! The snow seems to stay for long in the north of the region, I would be getting really excited if I lives in Cumbria!

[Joe Bloggs]

It also has colder uppers! The snow seems to stay for long in the north of the region, I would be getting really excited if I lives in Cumbria!

Yes looks pretty good for Cumbria, both on GFS and the MetO.

Although I'm not sure of the reliability of the MetO global model's precipitation charts, I think they are fairly low res.

But still; at least there is the chance of a bit of interest tomorrow night. Although equally there's always the danger that the Peak District hogs it all.

[Spurry]

Had a slow thaw throughout the day here but still quite a lot of snow around ,temp reached a max of 1.0c, but it's starting to freeze now, temp just dropped to 0.0c ,

Edited January 19, 2013 by Spurry

[Chris Henderson]

Think I'm done with this site for now guys. No chance of any significant snow for my area (South Lakeland) so I'm done. We've missed out so much and destined for f' all any time soon.

All the best,

Barmada Casten

Here's looking forward to a hot summer. I know how you feel as I am in kendal...........where snow is seemingly not allowed.

[The Northern Ramper]

Well no, not really. As I am interested in the potential for Sunday night into Monday.

But thanks for the advice.

Ah right but you didn't specify that you just said the gfs was poor like the nae,a dusting for Manchester.

Yet i just viewed the runs and between Sunday 6pm and Tuesday 6pm i am forecast 14 cm.

[Liam J]

If current model predictions are right then the whole region could see some snowfall during the course of Monday evening.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Liam J

[Joe Bloggs]

Ah right but you didn't specify that you just said the gfs was poor like the nae,a dusting for Manchester.

Yet i just viewed the runs and between Sunday 6pm and Tuesday 6pm i am forecast 14 cm.

Ah fair enough, you were referring to the GFS. Yep I jumped the gun there.

Fingers crossed it verifies :-)

[The Northern Ramper]

Snizzle is pepping up again, i also notice the showers further north-east seem to be coming south and these i am sure will start to get across the north of our region.