Far North of England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

[ScottSnow]

Snowing again here in Gateshead.

[Alex95]

The 18z is close to a snow event on Monday, just about 1C too warm, compared with 2C on the 12z and 3C on the 6z. If it does snow we could be looking at many inches piling up as the North Sea really intensifies the precipitation - I wonder what March 79 would look like on the models a couple of days before hand!

The 18z GFS that is.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I miss the north east

I'm so jealous of you lot up there! Wish I was back home in Stanley as everything that falls on Monday should definitely be snow.

Good luck everyone, hope there is still plenty when I come up on Friday, if I can make it through another possible snow event as the Atlantic tries again to come in!

Would be great to see some pics of your snow.

[Penrith Snow]

The 18z is close to a snow event on Monday, just about 1C too warm, compared with 2C on the 12z and 3C on the 6z. If it does snow we could be looking at many inches piling up as the North Sea really intensifies the precipitation - I wonder what March 79 would look like on the models a couple of days before hand!

The 18z GFS that is.

Do you think we will see snow in cumbria on Monday? Meto says no.....

Andy

[tynevalleysnow]

Still snowing heavy and really starting to mount up. If the gfs is right about tomorrow night into monday and tuesday we should be well over a foot deep here. Seriously though if it does snow as heavy and for as long as they are saying things could get bad with places being cut off and roads closed. Think ill stock up tomorrow if we can get out.

[snowmaddave]

Looking good for use further up north again, things seem to be petering out down here for us, the odd shower that's about it, can here plenty of dripping, i ain't sure we will get much in the next few days but you never know.

[baskcm]

Looking good for use further up north again, things seem to be petering out down here for us, the odd shower that's about it, can here plenty of dripping, i ain't sure we will get much in the next few days but you never know.

i hope so our snow in hartlepool is slowly vanishing

[Boro Snow]

Snowing in thornaby. 0.4c

thank good ive heard u av had a major thaw

[gazzac69]

decent snow here, beeb showing snow moving up from south tomorrow, graphics showed all snow even out to sea, hmm! more marginal me thinks ,especially if any strong winds off sea are involved hope i,m wrong. but I think it will be a very interesting week ahead, the 18 gfs seems to be backtracking a bit for the return of the atlantic.

Edited January 19, 2013 by gazzac69

[Alex95]

Do you think we will see snow in cumbria on Monday? Meto says no.....

Andy

Touch and go. If it does reach you it should be snow rather than rain or sleet so at least you haven't got a mild sector to worry about.

[tynevalleysnow]

18z gfs had us in easterly still on friday I think

[Andy_]

I'm ready to come to terms with the fact i'm going to have heavy rain at some point on Monday, either sooner or later in the day to ruin my snow cover.

Although if anyone has any last minute hope for me it would still be appreciated

[Emma Jayne Agar]

I'm ready to come to terms with the fact i'm going to have heavy rain at some point on Monday, either sooner or later in the day to ruin my snow cover.

Although if anyone has any last minute hope for me it would still be appreciated

Me too.

[snowmaddave]

We will deffo have rain here, already have in spells today, still we have had lying snow since Tuesday which turns this into a decent spell, even though im disappointed with the past 24hrs, I would of thought we may have seen an awful lot more than we got.

[damianslaw]

Another dry day here in the main. We did recieve some very very fine snow, hardly anything to talk about which had the affect of dampening the ground. The air is so dry at the moment despite temps hovering close to freezing throughout daylight hours we have no ice or frost to give everything a more wintry look - it doesn't feel right having such temps but a grey landscape..

We've had a lot of bad luck in recent days in terms of snow prospects, will luck be on our side come Monday.. will be keeping a close eye on tomorrows feature tracking the location and intensity and position of the snow band. For us Cumbrians, I think we should all expect nothing and then we can't be dissapointed, unlike on Friday which was a complete non-event, one of the worst of its kind!!!

I hope I don't allienate myself by saying this...

Its high time Cumbria and SW Scotland saw some decent snow action this winter - we along with Cornwall have seen very little snow in the main. It seems the same places who have seen lots of snow in recent days are the same places who continue to see the highest snow chances... it feels like we are in the centre of the hurricane eye which is going nowhere and all the action is spiralling around us.

[Alex95]

Another dry day here in the main. We did recieve some very very fine snow, hardly anything to talk about which had the affect of dampening the ground. The air is so dry at the moment despite temps hovering close to freezing throughout daylight hours we have no ice or frost to give everything a more wintry look - it doesn't feel right having such temps but a grey landscape..

We've had a lot of bad luck in recent days in terms of snow prospects, will luck be on our side come Monday.. will be keeping a close eye on tomorrows feature tracking the location and intensity and position of the snow band. For us Cumbrians, I think we should all expect nothing and then we can't be dissapointed, unlike on Friday which was a complete non-event, one of the worst of its kind!!!

I hope I don't allienate myself by saying this...

Its high time Cumbria and SW Scotland saw some decent snow action this winter - we along with Cornwall have seen very little snow in the main. It seems the same places who have seen lots of snow in recent days are the same places who continue to see the highest snow chances... it feels like we are in the centre of the hurricane eye which is going nowhere and all the action is spiralling around us.

That's the price you pay for your mountains! It'd be unfair if you had it all.

[damianslaw]

That's the price you pay for your mountains! It'd be unfair if you had it all.

Yes indeed - we are spoilt in many respects.. I'm trying to stay upbeat at the moment and we did see a few cms on Sunday and early Monday so it hasn't been a complete snow drought. Its my own fault I banked on the frontal event delivering on Friday - learnt a huge lesson..

[NickR]

We will deffo have rain here, already have in spells today, still we have had lying snow since Tuesday which turns this into a decent spell, even though im disappointed with the past 24hrs, I would of thought we may have seen an awful lot more than we got.

Whether you/we have rain or snow has nothing to do with what you/we've had today, though. It's to do with what the figures are like (thicknesses, 850s, DPs, etc.). At the moment, aside from GFS, signs are good.

[Snowmaggedon]

How much snow can we expect then during Sunday night and Monday if things go to plan?

Edited January 20, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Alex95]

How much snow can we expect then during Subday night and Monday if things go to plan?

The NAE shows the equivalent of 15-20cm, but beware that even if it does snow there should be a few melty spells so I highly doubt there'll be that much at low levels.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Tonight's GFS runs have shown more movement towards UKMO/ECMWF than vice versa as far as 850hPa temperatures are concerned and it looks good for some frontal snow tomorrow night, followed by snow showers off the North Sea late on Monday and into Tuesday, upwards of 10 miles inland from the east coast. However, it looks very dicey near the coast where slush and ice are likely to be widespread issues and I wouldn't be relishing the current outlook if I was still in Cleadon.

The breakdown to milder weather after Thursday is also less and less convincing- indeed the GFS 18Z has postponed the arrival of mild weather until next Monday.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[tynevalleysnow]

Well with 12 hours to go all the models, met and bbc + itv all forecasting a very wintry spell of weather for all of us over next 48 hours. Looking like sleet right on the beach and snow any distance inland with totals of up to 20cms being mentioned. Very interesting time ahead.

[NickR]

Well with 12 hours to go all the models, met and bbc + itv all forecasting a very wintry spell of weather for all of us over next 48 hours. Looking like sleet right on the beach and snow any distance inland with totals of up to 20cms being mentioned. Very interesting time ahead.

Anyone remember Schafernaker's "half a metre of snow" debacle from a similar system a few years ago? The one that ended up as rain.

[snowmackem]

Not much more overnight here, but plenty of light looking showers over the sea headed this way. In fact just had a relatively heavy snizzle shower.

Off to the slopes again later,also, looks like the North East will be going nowhere tomorrow morning in the rush hour, looking very dodgy, sure to be dozens and dozens of school closures and businesses to be really badly hit. The timing is going to be great isn't it, when people are getting up for work there will potentially have been around 6 hours of heavy blowy snow, oh happy days!!

Here is a tip, when the weather is like that, even if you are not travelling, tune in to BBC Radio Newcastle, it is fantastic for constant live updates and reports from across the region, they really do switch into "winter mode" and give it full on, great stuff, can't wait,

Cheers, Karl

[snowmackem]

Haha, have to laugh, watched BBC Breakfast weather 30 mins ago. The presenter (can't remember which one) described today/tomorrow's event and then kind of gave up by saying something along the lines of ...."in fact no real end in sight. In fact be prepared to expect more snow at any time pretty much anywhere", gotta love a forecast like that, it was almost like "here you are, these are the ingredients to make snow, you will be getting it, we just haven't got a clue where or when". It is starting to look like there will be a temporary "breakdown" to the current conditions at the weekend but with a very good chance of a rapid return from the North East? thereafter. We will have to wait and see on that one but I wouldn't be surprised, in such a volatile situation, to see the "milder" window getting squeezed by then until it becomes barely noticeable at the time, fingers crossed,

Karl