Far North of England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

[Penrith Snow]

Another dry day here in the main. We did recieve some very very fine snow, hardly anything to talk about which had the affect of dampening the ground. The air is so dry at the moment despite temps hovering close to freezing throughout daylight hours we have no ice or frost to give everything a more wintry look - it doesn't feel right having such temps but a grey landscape..

We've had a lot of bad luck in recent days in terms of snow prospects, will luck be on our side come Monday.. will be keeping a close eye on tomorrows feature tracking the location and intensity and position of the snow band. For us Cumbrians, I think we should all expect nothing and then we can't be dissapointed, unlike on Friday which was a complete non-event, one of the worst of its kind!!!

I hope I don't allienate myself by saying this...

Its high time Cumbria and SW Scotland saw some decent snow action this winter - we along with Cornwall have seen very little snow in the main. It seems the same places who have seen lots of snow in recent days are the same places who continue to see the highest snow chances... it feels like we are in the centre of the hurricane eye which is going nowhere and all the action is spiralling around us.

Agreed, I have lived in Penrith 22 years and never known a spell quite like this one with snow east, south, north and west of us although I know reading past records it has happened in the past.

In February 1947 the Lake District had to wait till February 5th until the first proper snow arrived, most of the Country had seen lying snow since 26th January!

Tonight the computers expect the Pennines to sheild Cumbria from a lot of the snow but I know from experience that this is often over done. In winters 2010 and 2011 the MetO frequently predicted the Pennine snow shield as snow moved in from the east but in reality it only reduced snowfall amounts by about a third.

Here are a few recent examples:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/brack/bracka20101202.gif 7cms fresh snow in Penrith

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20090202.gif 8cms fresh snow in Penrith

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2010/brack/bracka20100101.gif 6cms fresh snow in Penrith

And the Big One!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790215.gif 30cms fresh snow in Penrith!

With the snow tonight being associated with a frontal system I expect Central and East Cumbria to get at least 50% of what ever the Geordie's get.

Here's hoping!

Andy

[Jarrow Posh]

Morning all,just a quick question to those in the know.

How far inland will we have to be to avoid the sleet/rain forecast for the coastal strip?

Living in Jarrow I fear I will be too close to the sea for decent snowfall tonight and tomorrow.

Cheers Andy

[Penrith Snow]

Morning all,just a quick question to those in the know.

How far inland will we have to be to avoid the sleet/rain forecast for the coastal strip?

Living in Jarrow I fear I will be too close to the sea for decent snowfall tonight and tomorrow.

Cheers Andy

The MetO dont mention rain or sleet at all in their forecast so really it might be snowing over the sea never mind in land.

In reality snow within 5 miles of the coast is likely to be wet but get 5 miles inland and 50metres up then I would expect rapid accummulations.

Good luck with it!

Andy

[doggy123]

Nae looking very good for the north east overnight and all day tomorrow no signs of any rain. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

have a feeling it could be sleety for areas east of the a1 after the last few days.

[NickR]

From the graphics and the models I'd say the first 6 hours or so (i.e., overnight) should be snow everywhere. It's Monday morning when things start to get more marginal on the coast especially.

[snowmaddave]

I maybe wrong here but its only right on the coast line that it could be marginal, im about 7 mile from the coast so im hoping that will be far enough in land to fall as snow

[doggy123]

I reckon tyne valley snow will get about 20 centimeters from this one on his hill lol

[Alex95]

The GFS looks like snow midnight-0600, then sleet&snow mix 0600-1200. In the afternoon it gets less marginal again but the ppn will be clearing by then. It does show snow down to all levels further inland, and the marginality is caused by a warm sector in the North Sea rather than simply modification due to the mild sea, and I think that leaves room for further changes, good or bad. We want things to be slightly further east than they are currently shown as that would keep the mild sector offshore.

I'm still not getting my hopes up as I still remember the 2nd Jan 2010 - that just about looked cold enough for snow, but we ended up with an icy snow and sleety mix which had the net effect of reducing the snow from over 10cm to 5cm, although of course that was topped up in the following days.

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow us tagged as 'blue monday how fitting night thé weather ne, lots of people may have à valid excuse for a 'duvet day' perfect timing

[snowmaddave]

What's everyone's opinion about this cold spell?

I think its been good, better than what i thought, snow and ice on the ground since Tuesday, its snowed everyday since last Monday, the odd disappointment throwing in though (Friday for example) could be more on the way of snow tonight and tomorrow. A rather good spell of winter weather.

[Cloud 10]

06Z NAE showing between 30-40mm of precipitation for a good chunk of the North east

by the end of Monday which equates to over a foot of snow.

A red warning from the met-office perhaps?

[JP1972]

What I've found unusual is this.

Last Tuesday and Wednesday my car thermometer showed -5c at 7:15am both mornings.

Since then the temperature has only dipped to -1c very very briefly during one or two of the heavier snow showers.

My personal experience and therefore gut instinct is, that we won't fair too great from this frontal event tomorrow. Unless temperatures drop markedly from where we are sat now.

[Alex95]

Decent dusting in Keswick this morning, must have been a proper snow shower overnight.

[JP1972]

What's everyone's opinion about this cold spell?

I think its been good, better than what i thought, snow and ice on the ground since Tuesday, its snowed everyday since last Monday, the odd disappointment throwing in though (Friday for example) could be more on the way of snow tonight and tomorrow. A rather good spell of winter weather.

I've been quite happy with it. Still got a really decent covering, seen some superb heavy snow showers, snowed most if not all days since last Monday and when you think back to last winter .....

[Isolated Frost]

6 snow lying days in a row, add on the 3 in December and 1 in October, it's already the best cold spell since 16-26 December 2010.

I think the winter up to now has been average, but the next 2 weeks look like it'll turn it better than average. Today is all about watching the band off SE England and tracking its progress (which is hopefully from the SSE not S).

Enjoy the snow, we currently have some of the highest depths in Britain in parts, and all of us do have snow!

Edited January 20, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[JP1972]

6 snow lying days in a row, add on the 3 in December and 1 in October, it's already the best cold spell since 16-26 December 2010.

I think the winter up to now has been average, but the next 2 weeks look like it'll turn it better than average. Today is all about watching the band off SE England and tracking its progress (which is hopefully from the SSE not S).

Enjoy the snow, we currently have some of the highest depths in Britain in parts, and all of us do have snow!

Can you elaborate on this point please?

Do you rate the chances of a cold return from the NE after a milder interlude next weekend?

[Alex95]

Anyone remember Schafernaker's "half a metre of snow" debacle from a similar system a few years ago? The one that ended up as rain.

That was Feb 2009 I think, but it was much too warm with a warm sector in the North Sea containing 850hPa temps of over 0C, and I remember it being about 5C here on the morning of the 3rd!

That was a similar system moving up from France though, and there was widely 20-30mm of rain in the NE as it intensified over the North Sea. If it falls as snow tomorrow, which it certainly will on higher ground, there could be some very large snow totals being reported.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Alza

[gazzac69]

just been watching bbc news weather forecast on sky mentioned that it was currently snowing on the coast of SE England, I know the sea trek across the channel is small compared to the NE here. he did not mention rain at all for us just snow,. interesting,

considering we are still in January, and compared to last winter I am happy with this winter so far with an interesting week to come.

Edited January 20, 2013 by gazzac69

[Summer Sun]

Here the dew points for tomorrow at 18z

[Isolated Frost]

Can you elaborate on this point please?

Do you rate the chances of a cold return from the NE after a milder interlude next weekend?

I think it's more the lack of real mild upcoming and the potential snow-fest for many on Monday and Tuesday - as the MJO phase shifts and we see a steady transferral of heights across northern latitudes - the fun from the NE, though delayed, is very much possible come Feb.

I understand Alza's point about the mild sector at lower levels tomorrow, one to track certainly

[Summer Sun]

Cold weather alert extended to Thursday

There is a 100% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Sunday and 0600 on Thursday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

The cold weather is set to continue across all areas into the coming week. Daytime temperatures will continue to struggle to rise above freezing in many areas with widespread overnight frosts and ice. Further snow is expected too, particularly in eastern areas on Sunday and Monday. Sleet and snow is possible again across some areas on Tuesday. It is then expected to become more drier and more settled on Wednesday and Thursday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Dandy]

Just been watching the radar track, moving on a good course so far. Looks to be thick in places over the SE at the moment

[CraigUK]

Having been over in the north west expecting heavy snow on Friday and not getting much, and now being back in Darlo expecting lots for the north east I'm trying desperately to get my hopes up! If it does all go wrong, I'll be starting to think I've got a bit of a snow curse going on!

[recklessabandon]

Very much a case of nowcasting this feature later today I think. I suspect the lack of clear warnings from the METO at this stage are reflecting the uncertainty. I have mentioned in other Topics how features tracking through the North Sea can be very difficult to model due to the lack of local data (eg METO has no MAWS in the North Sea). The warm sector is a close call, a few miles (well within margins of error) could make a huge difference. I would suggest that Consett, Stanley, Tow Law, etc etc will get at least 10cm fresh snow, perhaps more, but east of the A1 is very unclear....I am not sure I'd be particularly excited if I lived on the coast at this stage. Like every one of these little North Sea features.....somewhere will probably get hammered, I am going to guesstimate that locally 20cm will be possible, either in the Cheviots or the NYMs....

In the bigger picture the models are still pushing back the breakdown, this morning, we have gone back another day into Thursday/Friday. Even beyond that, I wouldn't call it 'mild'.....

[Summer Sun]

NAE looks snowy

I will be amazed if there isn't an amber warning issued today

Some high rain totals by tomorrow evening