Far North of England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ---->

[peterf]

Sunday will cheer most up,although i'm now at the stage my Spring persona is kicking in.it's the best season of the year and the only one you can get 4 seasons in an hour.

[Geordiesnow]

The lack of proper convection this winter has been a massive disappointment, It's quite something when most of the snow in the NE has come from non-convective sources!

Yes, only 2 days noticetable cold convective events which produced lying snow and that was in December and in the last easterly spell where actually the only day of sunshine and snow showers came from a SE'ly! Thanks to lower thicknesses and other complex meteological reasons to allow sunshine and showers on that day and of course on Friday night was really frustrating(but joy to others) where that streamer type developed but unfortuately the next day, things became more marginal and convective showers in the true form never really occured.

Maybe that is why I'm a bit negative about this cold shot, looking at the charts a bit more closely again, I would say the GFS is just plain awful, no convective weather there really. ECM is so-so, more favorable wind direction but uppers are not the best with that mild sector never too far away and the UKMO is probably the best out of them all in terms of upper air temps but I think the UKMO can sometimes over-do the colder uppers at times.

That last easterly event has really made me learnt that the charts are not always as good for snow lovers as it appears, I remember Isolated Frost went on saying we will get alot of convective weather and the uppers/thicknesses all looked really good but all we got was stratus-cumulus clouds with very very limited convective showers.

Edit: Peter - The GFS is just awful upper air temps wise, Monday will just be cold and raw, Tuesday may have a higher chance of convective weather but probably nothing too significant, uppers look colder but thicknesses are higher and so is pressure and the PPN charts don't seem to suggest high amounts of PPN but maybe I'm reading too much into them?

Maybe someone like TWS will certainly know more than I do but I think even he admitted he got a bit caught out by the charts in the last easterly episode.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[NickR]

Sunday will cheer most up,although i'm now at the stage my Spring persona is kicking in.it's the best season of the year and the only one you can get 4 seasons in an hour.

Winter used to be my favourite season... but now it's summer... but that's mainly out of nostalgia, because I can't remember what a summer is like since I moved to the NE 6 years ago!

[peterf]

Yes, only 2 days noticetable cold convective events which produced lying snow and that was in December and in the last easterly spell where actually the only day of sunshine and snow showers came from a SE'ly! Thanks to lower thicknesses and other complex meteological reasons to allow sunshine and showers on that day and of course on Friday night was really frustrating(but joy to others) where that streamer type developed but unfortuately the next day, things became more marginal and convective showers in the true form never really occured.

Maybe that is why I'm a bit negative about this cold shot, looking at the charts a bit more closely again, I would say the GFS is just plain awful, no convective weather there really. ECM is so-so, more favorable wind direction but uppers are not the best with that mild sector never too far away and the UKMO is probably the best out of them all in terms of upper air temps but I think the UKMO can sometimes over-do the colder uppers at times.

That last easterly event has really made me learnt that the charts are not always as good for snow lovers as it appears, I remember Isolated Frost went on saying we will get alot of convective weather and the uppers/thicknesses all looked really good but all we got was stratus-cumulus clouds with very very limited convective showers.

Edit: Peter - The GFS is just awful upper air temps wise, Monday will just be cold and raw, Tuesday may have a higher chance of convective weather but probably nothing too significant, uppers look colder but thicknesses are higher and so is pressure and the PPN charts don't seem to suggest high amounts of PPN but maybe I'm reading too much into them?

Maybe someone like TWS will certainly know more than I do but I think even he admitted he got a bit caught out by the charts in the last easterly episode.

the GFS is only a model though, and we all know how reliable they are when it comes to realtime.try and cheer up man for gods sake.

[NickR]

the GFS is only a model though, and we all know how reliable they are when it comes to realtime.try and cheer up man for gods sake.

With GS's negativity (realism) and my incessant moaning, we've got to win the Depressing Regional Thread of the Year contest!

[Snowstorm1]

With GS's negativity (realism) and my incessant moaning, we've got to win the Depressing Regional Thread of the Year contest!

Not with me back!

Heavy snow and drifting and 10cm + low levels ; 20cm + possible over higher ground in our region totals to be looking at by monday i hope everyone is ready its coming....

[NickR]

Not with me back!

Heavy snow and drifting and 10cm + low levels ; 20cm + possible over higher ground in our region totals to be looking at by monday i hope everyone is ready its coming....

My fears are:

Snow from the West doesn't usually deliver (Pennine effect)

As has been noted, convection looks less certain than 24 hours ago.

I can quite easily see 2-5cm for low ground as a general rule here. Needless to say, I hope I'm very wrong.

[peterf]

i'm with you SS.

My fears are:

Snow from the West doesn't usually deliver (Pennine effect)

As has been noted, convection looks less certain than 24 hours ago.

I can quite easily see 2-5cm for low ground as a general rule here. Needless to say, I hope I'm very wrong.

you get 5cm, we get grounded here.

[Summer Sun]

Not with me back!

Heavy snow and drifting and 10cm + low levels ; 20cm + possible over higher ground in our region totals to be looking at by Monday i hope everyone is ready its coming....

I admire your optimism but I just can see those totals to be honest the front could struggle to even reach us if it does it will be mostly light I'd say 4cm max by Monday morning

[peterf]

drove along the back road towards Waskerley this afternoon,still got 3ft non melting drifts on the north facing road edges most of the way.

tonights NMM is the one i'm waiting for.

[Alex95]

With GS's negativity (realism) and my incessant moaning, we've got to win the Depressing Regional Thread of the Year contest!

You clearly haven't visited the North West thread...

(Although its a bit less miserable in there now than it has been at times this winter)

[NickR]

18z rather supports the pessimist view for our region on Sun/Mon, I'm afraid.

This will all go further South I think.

Edited February 8, 2013 by NickR

[Boro Snow]

the weather i watched on bbc news at 9.57 was very reserved including monday, mmmmm ive got a bad feeling

[damianslaw]

One notable aspect of the winter so far and probably a key reason for lack of convective snow events,has been the lack of any long draw northerlies, northeasterlies or easterlies - too many shortwaves have scuppered such long draw developments - the prospects for Monday and Tuesday look similiar.

I'm hopeful many parts of the region will see some snow later on Sunday, southern parts more so than the far NE.

I must say though - the country has a whole has done and is doing very well this winter for snowfall given just how marginal things have been - unlike many of the winters since 1988 most of the country has been on the right side of the margin so to speak. It is reminding me of winter 00/01 in some respects - a fairly decent winter temperature and snowfall wise without ever being particularly very cold and extreme. If we look back of winter 00/01 it ended with a very potent snowfall in eastern/se scotland and ne england at the very end of Feb and a generally wintry March.. I think this winter has alot of bite left in it yet... its only a matter of time we see the PV over Canada finally relent and pull in some more sustained northern blocking quite probably to our NW than NE.

[NickR]

One notable aspect of the winter so far and probably a key reason for lack of convective snow events,has been the lack of any long draw northerlies, northeasterlies or easterlies - too many shortwaves have scuppered such long draw developments - the prospects for Monday and Tuesday look similiar.

I'm hopeful many parts of the region will see some snow later on Sunday, southern parts more so than the far NE.

I must say though - the country has a whole has done and is doing very well this winter for snowfall given just how marginal things have been - unlike many of the winters since 1988 most of the country has been on the right side of the margin so to speak. It is reminding me of winter 00/01 in some respects - a fairly decent winter temperature and snowfall wise without ever being particularly very cold and extreme. If we look back of winter 00/01 it ended with a very potent snowfall in eastern/se scotland and ne england at the very end of Feb and a generally wintry March.. I think this winter has alot of bite left in it yet... its only a matter of time we see the PV over Canada finally relent and pull in some more sustained northern blocking quite probably to our NW than NE.

Has to be said though, latest models look like snatching this one away from the NE. I can only see the Southerly correction getting greater, and yet another instance of us looking at others getting what might have been for us.

[peterf]

Has to be said though, latest models look like snatching this one away from the NE. I can only see the Southerly correction getting greater, and yet another instance of us looking at others getting what might have been for us.

they can have it,as chitting me seed tatties now.

[NickR]

they can have it,as chitting me seed tatties now.

A foot of snow... or your seed tatties whilst watching the Mids and SE contingent in a snow frenzy.

Sorry, Peter, I'm afraid your tatties mean chit all to me. ;-)

Edited February 8, 2013 by NickR

[Andy_]

Total lack of decent uppers once again, is it so much to ask?! Annoyingly marginal once again pffft, Once again high pressure over Scandi blocks off the colder uppers, it really annoys me when people get excited over a Scandi high they've brought us nothing but trouble. Stick a trough over scandi any day instead.

That's my pessimism over... In any case by the time it gets to this point of the Winter i'm dreaming of hot days and sunshine so... It can do what it wants

[NickR]

Total lack of decent uppers once again, is it so much to ask?! Annoyingly marginal once again pffft, Once again high pressure over Scandi blocks off the colder uppers, it really annoys me when people get excited over a Scandi high they've brought us nothing but trouble. Stick a trough over scandi any day instead.

That's my pessimism over... In any case by the time it gets to this point of the Winter i'm dreaming of hot days and sunshine so... It can do what it wants

You going outside the NE for summer then?

[Andy_]

You going outside the NE for summer then?

I telephone boxing hope so!

-Lol ^

Edited February 8, 2013 by Andy.

[peterf]

A foot of snow... or your seed tatties whilst watching the Mids and SE contingent in a snow frenzy.

Sorry, Peter, I'm afraid your tatties mean chit all to me. ;-)

aye sod the tatties,chip shop up the road lol.

[NickR]

I telephone boxing hope so!

[Andy_]

I would say we're due a good summer but that's all i've heard for the past 6 years...

[peterf]

I telephone boxing hope so!

-Lol ^

Whitby is nice one day in August

[NickR]

aye sod the tatties,chip shop up the road lol.

Does remind me though - I'll need to decide whether I'm going to bother with spuds this year... the price has gone up the the shops, but it's still hardly an expensive veg and I haven't got space for loads... I'll need to start sowing the tomato plants soon... last year's lot I brought into the sunroom at end of Sept with all green toms... I was still harvesting lovely red toms 2 weeks ago!

I reckon this year: toms, lettuce, spinach, broad beans (ALWAYS a winner), leeks, maybe carrots.

Onions never grow to a decent size, and forgot to plant the garlic in the autumn.

Any other suggestions? (I've tried sprouts, broccoli, and cucumbers - all a disaster - don't get much sun where the beds are)

I would say we're due a good summer but that's all i've heard for the past 6 years...

I moved here 1 Jan 2007... maybe for all your sakes I should move away!... a coincidence?