Far North of England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ---->

[Snowmaggedon]

Any updates taking into account the latest models? No updates In a while, this is worrying

Edited February 8, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Boro Snow]

Any updates taking into account the latest models? No updates In a while, this is worrying

the latest gfs is not good at all infact rain rain rain for sun and mon the way im looking at it except for pennines etc dew point above zero aswell, but im going with ukmo which does deliver snow and a nice eastly on mon

[Snowmaggedon]

the latest gfs is not good at all infact rain rain rain for sun and mon the way im looking at it except for pennines etc dew point above zero aswell, but im going with ukmo which does deliver snow and a nice eastly on mon

Ye I'd favour the ukmo,gfs has apparently bring shocking this winter Edited February 8, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Alex95]

I like the 12z as it brings back the snowy easterly from Monday night, despite Sunday and Monday looking more marginal.

[Cloud 10]

Nice surprise when i woke up this morning to see a light covering of snow.

Latest runs from gfs and ukmo show a big difference in the size and strength of the cold

air for monday,obviously ukmo preferred!

ukmo.. gfs..

[Summer Sun]

The met office continue to forecast light snow and sleet for darlo up-to and including Tuesday - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1360454400

[Snowmaggedon]

Looks like we'll be missing out on the brunt of this snowfall?

[NickR]

Looks like we'll be missing out on the brunt of this snowfall?

Mate, you need to stop drawing such black/white conclusions after each run. You seem to be basing that on the GFS 12z alone? And even then, we miss out on Sun/Mon, but get a lot of convective snow after that. And that's not taking into account the other models. Chill, and just wait to see what happens.

[Alex95]

The 12z GFS actually shows a wintry mix on Sunday, heavy sleet and snow on Sunday night and Monday morning with decent accumulations inland, then a cold easterly late Monday and Tuesday with heavy snow showers. It then shows some frontal snow possibilities for the middle of next week, but the gist of it is that mild weather certainly isn't on the horizon for the time being. I'm pretty happy with it overall, much better than the 00z was, and better than the 06z in the medium term.

Really, Sunday would be the only let down on that run compared with some previous runs, but even on the 06z it didn't look like a snowfest up here as the precipitation didn't reach us until Sunday night anyway.

The UKMO is brilliant for Monday, but I favour the GFS atm as I have a feeling the UKMO is brushing over the shortwave which would draw the warm sector northwards on Monday and prevent a full blown easterly, although we could still get it a day late, as per the 12z GFS.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Alza

[Snowmaggedon]

Mate, you need to stop drawing such black/white conclusions after each run. You seem to be basing that on the GFS 12z alone? And even then, we miss out on Sun/Mon, but get a lot of convective snow after that. And that's not taking into account the other models. Chill, and just wait to see what happens.

haha I can't help it. I just want one good pasting, that is all.

[Summer Sun]

haha I can't help it. I just want one good pasting, that is all.

ECM could prove vital tonight there is still 24 hours yet in which minor adjustments could give this region a pasting

[Boro Snow]

falls inline pritty much with the ukmo

Edited February 8, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Summer Sun]

The met office are still uncertain what's going to happen on Sunday however the 2 charts below show the changes in the forecast from this mornings weather wise feature to the BBC News forecast at 18:28

18:28 forecast

Weather wise forecast

Matt Hugo has posted this on twitter

As with the 00z run, ignore the 12z GFS Det model for Sunday. Poor sums the model up regarding handling this feature.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[peterf]

I used to hold SM in high esteem.but some of his posts after the failed Easterly have left me in doubt, regards his dummy spitting routines.

regardless of that i'm still on full alert here.

[Alex95]

I used to hold SM in high esteem.but some of his posts after the failed Easterly have left me in doubt, regards his dummy spitting routines.

regardless of that i'm still on full alert here.

I never have really, he tends to be popular with the SE crowd for his over the top ramps.

The ECM looks pretty tasty to me, we would probably get a significant snow event if that came off, then the snowy easterly floods in by Monday afternoon.

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of high pressure on offer tonight from ECM t144 to t240 is dominated by high pressure bright and cold at first with temperatures starting to recover to average towards the end of its run

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[peterf]

I never have really, he tends to be popular with the SE crowd for his over the top ramps.

The ECM looks pretty tasty to me, we would probably get a significant snow event if that came off, then the snowy easterly floods in by Monday afternoon.

yip i meant his knowledge of the outputs,one thing for sure though if they dont suit his back garden they are then crap regardless of anyone else's location.that attitude lets him down IMHO.

[peterf]

loads of snow showing for here on the HI-RES.then again we still have quite a few of the drifts from the last spell.

[NickR]

yip i meant his knowledge of the outputs,one thing for sure though if they dont suit his back garden they are then crap regardless of anyone else's location.that attitude lets him down IMHO.

Agree 100%. And he's nowhere to be seen if there isn't cold and snow on the horizon.

He doesn't do modesty very well, either.

Edited February 8, 2013 by NickR

[smogonthetyne]

This place has been a bit of a godsend. Having to travel the whole North of the country for work, i'd be flying blind if i had to stick with BBC forecast. They are only going as far as lunchtime sunday. I appreciate that its a complex set up but only giving 48-36 hrs forecast is a bit pathetic.

When would I get information regarding heavy snow showers on Mon/Tue?

Of course it might not happen and we might not get any snow on Sunday, but couldnt they outline the possibilities of what is possible early next week?

[Geordiesnow]

The 12z GFS actually shows a wintry mix on Sunday, heavy sleet and snow on Sunday night and Monday morning with decent accumulations inland, then a cold easterly late Monday and Tuesday with heavy snow showers. It then shows some frontal snow possibilities for the middle of next week, but the gist of it is that mild weather certainly isn't on the horizon for the time being. I'm pretty happy with it overall, much better than the 00z was, and better than the 06z in the medium term.

I see very little of real convective weather on the GFS 12Z run, infact I don't think I see much in the way convective weather on any of the model runs with perhaps a slightly exception being the UKMO. Regarding the weather front, I don't think it will make this far Eastwards and if it does with winds off the North Sea, are we even on the right side of marginal?

Really dissapointing we went from a more likely convective ENE'ly to a dull chilly ESE'ly with the -10hpa ONCE AGAIN struggling reaching the UK, something which has been a constant theme this winter, also the constant theme of the undercuts really struggling to actually properly undercut cleanly. I think LS(scottish lad) made this point really well with his posting of those charts in the model thread recently.

[peterf]

I see very little of real convective weather on the GFS 12Z run, infact I don't think I see much in the way convective weather on any of the model runs with perhaps a slightly exception being the UKMO. Regarding the weather front, I don't think it will make this far Eastwards and if it does with winds off the North Sea, are we even on the right side of marginal?

Really dissapointing we went from a more likely convective ENE'ly to a dull chilly ESE'ly with the -10hpa ONCE AGAIN struggling reaching the UK, something which has been a constant theme this winter, also the constant theme of the undercuts really struggling to actually properly undercut cleanly. I think LS(scottish lad) made this point really well with his posting of those charts in the model thread recently.

I thought you were giving misery up for Lent,same old same old.try a pub happy hour they are great.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Looking very good for you guys Sunday and Monday

[peterf]

I'm not having a go GS,but take a look at all your posts over the years. read the first sentence,there's enough negativity in 90% of them to alter the magnetic pole.

Looking very good for you guys Sunday and Monday

Yip things looking very good especially on the hills (imby) but also lower down to the coastal fringes.

[NickR]

I see very little of real convective weather on the GFS 12Z run, infact I don't think I see much in the way convective weather on any of the model runs with perhaps a slightly exception being the UKMO. Regarding the weather front, I don't think it will make this far Eastwards and if it does with winds off the North Sea, are we even on the right side of marginal?

Really dissapointing we went from a more likely convective ENE'ly to a dull chilly ESE'ly with the -10hpa ONCE AGAIN struggling reaching the UK, something which has been a constant theme this winter, also the constant theme of the undercuts really struggling to actually properly undercut cleanly. I think LS(scottish lad) made this point really well with his posting of those charts in the model thread recently.

The lack of proper convection this winter has been a massive disappointment, It's quite something when most of the snow in the NE has come from non-convective sources!