Far North of England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ---->

[Boro Snow]

TBH the only chance of snow is Sunday before that its looking mostly dry and chilly with sunny intervals

Even the met office website is showing heavy rain (as of 19:53) on Sunday morning turning to sleet before turning to snow in the evening

I wouldn't get your hopes up yet for much snow it could turn into a non event again

http://www.metoffice...Time=1360454400

what about mon and tues dont we have an eastly

[Snowmaggedon]

TBH the only chance of snow is Sunday before that its looking mostly dry and chilly with sunny intervals

Even the met office website is showing heavy rain (as of 19:53) on Sunday morning turning to sleet before turning to snow in the evening

I wouldn't get your hopes up yet for much snow it could turn into a non event again

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1360454400

I agree, the temperatures so far in this cold spell haven't been that low and I can't see a dramatic turn around by Sunday. Rain the more likely outcome at this stage.

[Summer Sun]

what about mon and tues don't we have an easterly

That's too far away yet really to be certain easterlies are hard to come by these days they always seem to downgrade. The temperatures so far haven't been what I would describe as "cold" I would call it "average"

Edited February 6, 2013 by Gavin.

[Alex95]

Not much snow this week, but it has certainly been colder than average, which I think is about 7 degrees at this time of year. This has certainly been a decent winter overall, roughly on par with 04/05 or 03/04 in terms of snow, but with less mild in between the cold spells.

[damianslaw]

Current temps are all slightly below the long term mean for early feb. Now on average is the coldest part of the year. What Surprised me today is how high maxima ended up given the cold uppers and a direct north airstream, reminded me of some of the weak northerlies of the 00's such as early feb 05 and 08. Hardly a snowy northerly a bit pathetic really.

[Alex95]

The easterly on Sunday - Tuesday is firming up now, but rather than being a convective, showery easterly it looks like there'll be a low pressure centre in the North Sea, and a band of heavy snow straddling somewhere in the east. The current GFS gives the North East quite a bit of snow, without over analysing where it is showing the heaviest bursts as obviously its too far away for that. It looks remarkably similar to the blizzard which mainly affected higher ground a few weeks ago, but next week looks less marginal at the moment. There is a warm sector further south though, and I can guarantee this will be modelled to move up the east coast nearer the time, so we really need this to be downplayed as much as possible.

[doggy123]

Sure it will be very marginal on the coast and low lying areas as usual with a strong east wind. Consett will get buried again though!

[Snowmaggedon]

I wouldn't get too bogged down on details yet, in the last cold spell Wales were not expected to be in the firing line and then everyone knows what happened

[Snowmaggedon]

That's too far away yet really to be certain easterlies are hard to come by these days they always seem to downgrade. The temperatures so far haven't been what I would describe as "cold" I would call it "average"

The precipitation charts you've posted on the Mod thread just now do not look too bad for us Edited February 7, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Guest]

I'm going to let this potential snow event creep up on me before hand and pleasantly surprise me next week (I hope )

[Summer Sun]

The precipitation charts you've posted on the Mod thread just now do not look too bad for us

Yes they don't look bad but the 06z is a lot worse (charts to follow)

2 early snow warnings are out

Issued at: 1138 on Thu 7 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

There is a risk that a band of rain spreading from the southwest during Sunday will turn to sleet and snow. There is the potential for accumulations up to 10 cm in places and the public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

Mondays warning is mainly for the Newcastle area south

Issued at: 1139 on Thu 7 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will gradually clear from the northwest. There is the potential for further accumulations of up to 10 cm in places and ice will increasingly become a hazard. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

For those on lower elevations and near the coast I think its best to keep your hopes down that way if its a non event you won't be disappointed

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Following on from my earlier post in the MOD thread the 06z has downgraded the snow for many there is huge uncertainty but its looking quite marginal for many in England and Wales if you don't have decent elevation

The main reason for the uncertainty is the day time temperatures could be too high for some

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

It's all in the air at the moment it seems, this can either turn out to be a rain fest or a winter wonderland :/

[Boro Snow]

Yes they don't look bad but the 06z is a lot worse (charts to follow)

2 early snow warnings are out

Issued at: 1138 on Thu 7 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

There is a risk that a band of rain spreading from the southwest during Sunday will turn to sleet and snow. There is the potential for accumulations up to 10 cm in places and the public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

Mondays warning is mainly for the Newcastle area south

Issued at: 1139 on Thu 7 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will gradually clear from the northwest. There is the potential for further accumulations of up to 10 cm in places and ice will increasingly become a hazard. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

For those on lower elevations and near the coast I think its best to keep your hopes down that way if its a non event you won't be disappointed

yeah but a lot of people including sm rubbish the gfs and especially the 06z Edited February 7, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Summer Sun]

yeah but a lot of people including sm rubbish the gfs and especially the 6oz

Yeah we'll just have to wait and see, its either gonna be a slushy rain fest or winter wonderland the next 48 hours will firm things up hopefully

[tynevalleysnow]

Weather channel for my postcode has snow sunday-thuesday

[Summer Sun]

Weather channel for my postcode has snow sunday-thuesday

They have sleet here for Sunday, snow Monday (50% chance) and snow Tuesday (60% chance) after that it slowly turns milder with 6c by the 16th

As ever those with a decent elevation will see snow those lower down could be marginal plus if it starts as rain at low levels it will struggle to stick unless it turns heavy

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

This afternoons GME is suggesting rain for Sunday more a less country wide

[Summer Sun]

GFS is following GME this afternoon the backtracks are starting

Looking like a backtrack from GFS with rain and sleet quickly following on from the leading edge snow you will need to be well up for snow if GFS is right

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Looking like an upgrade for the south so far for the snow and a downgrade for the north

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Alex95]

Big upgrades on the 12z GFS, -10 850s knocking on the door by Monday morning with plenty of snow from the North Sea as well. Sunday looks dry to me with the precipitations mainly staying out west, but tomorrow morning could surprise some if that weakening band of snow makes it far enough east.

[Summer Sun]

Monday afternoon and evening looks our best bet for snow with precipitation coming in off the north sea

Cold uppers as well

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

Monday afternoon and evening looks our best bet for snow with precipitation coming in off the north sea

Cold uppers as well

If all the jigsaws fit in place even low lying areas could get a dumping

[Summer Sun]

If all the jigsaws fit in place even low lying areas could get a dumping

Indeed 8.4cm of snow is forecast here by 06:00 on Tuesday morning

http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2f&lat=54.52131&lon=-1.53397&tz=0

[NickR]

Indeed 8.4cm of snow is forecast here by 06:00 on Tuesday morning

http://spotwx.com/pr...n=-1.53397&tz=0

If it's 8.3cm, I'll be in full-on moaning mood.