Far North of England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z ---->

[Summer Sun]

If it's 8.3cm, I'll be in full-on moaning mood.

6.6cm for you by Tuesday lunchtime

http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2f&lat=54.77821&lon=-1.55342&tz=0

[NickR]

6.6cm for you by Tuesday lunchtime

http://spotwx.com/pr...n=-1.55342&tz=0

Darlo to get more snow than Durham??? I guess there's a first time for everything!

[Summer Sun]

Darlo to get more snow than Durham??? I guess there's a first time for everything!

That's only based on GFS mind

ECM is hinting at the cold air leaving on Valentines day before turning progressively milder and wetter

[NickR]

18z is a stonker for here. Of course, everyone in the MO thread is going on about how it's a poor run.

[Alex95]

The 18z is more marginal, but full of potential for heavy snow at times. Monday is still 4 days away yet so we definitely need a few more runs.

No sign of the heavy rain and significant warm sector shown on the 06z.

[Snowmaggedon]

18z is a stonker for here. Of course, everyone in the MO thread is going on about how it's a poor run.

maybe this snow event has our name written on it? Lol jk, the picture is changing every run so we won't really know until just before the event but we haven't been in the firing line this winter yet, so maybe this is our turn

[peterf]

i'm supposed to be heading to Penrith and back Sunday.Do i go the scenic route through Alston or stick with the 69?

Infact i think he can get the train lol.

[Snowmaggedon]

Is the latest fax chart any good for us?

[Snowmaggedon]

Are we still on course for some sort of dumping on Sunday/Monday or should I get my brolly out?

[NickR]

Are we still on course for some sort of dumping on Sunday/Monday or should I get my brolly out?

WHatever happens it won't be rain here - that's clear from even the briefest of visits to the MO thread or charts. If we get ppn it'll be snow... the question is whether we get the ppn. At the moment it looks good, but mainly from convection rather than the initial frontal system.

[Snowmaggedon]

WHatever happens it won't be rain here - that's clear from even the briefest of visits to the MO thread or charts. If we get ppn it'll be snow... the question is whether we get the ppn. At the moment it looks good, but mainly from convection rather than the initial frontal system.

but we tend to do better out of convection am I right in thinking? The reaction in the Mod thread suggests that the Midlands northwards will be buried...

[Alex95]

Poor GFS 00z again, with rain even on high ground on Monday. The ECM is still good, so it could be the GFS overdoing the shortwave to the NW of Scotland which prevents the easterly from really getting here. Yesterday's 0z was awful as well, and I had hoped it was a one off.

[Airedalejoe]

Yet another covering of snow above about 190m!

[Alex95]

Forgot to mention we have a very light sprinkling here from the overnight snow.

[Snowmaggedon]

The BBC graphics didn't look too shabby for us

[Alex95]

Turned to rain here. Hopefully the next lot will be on Sunday!

[Rollo]

Forgot to mention we have a very light sprinkling here from the overnight snow.

Yes same here but only very little ,the tooing and froeing of most if not all the major computers. really does show how difficult it is to predict easterly flows and I suspect things will be quite different come tomorrow morning. Remember the low that might give us a major snow event has not even formed yet so the wait continues

[smogonthetyne]

We keep getting brief snow showers. Some big flakes. Looks interesting for Sun/Mon/Tue

[Summer Sun]

Another day of sunshine here the start to this month has been remarkable 7 days out of 8 have been sunny at some point during the day we are certainly making up for dull January

Here is the latest snow charts and pressure charts for next week, high pressure looks likely to build around midweek

This mornings GFS is showing a rain fest for the bulk of the country on Sunday and Monday

Northern and Eastern Scotland looks the place to be for snow else where its likely to be cold rain or sleet at best based on the 00z run

By mid next week there is now good agreement between UKMO and ECM for high pressure to build giving us a quiet spell

[Summer Sun]

This is the beebs current take on Sunday it must be stressed they remain uncertain on its exact position

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

This is the beebs current take on Sunday it must be stressed they remain uncertain on its exact position

As I stressed earlier on, I have that feeling that this event has our name written all over it. If that graphic verified, I can't see us getting much rain. Edited February 8, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Boro Snow]

cant believe we still dont no whats gunna happen and its only 48 hours away, and this low hasnt even formed yet, im thinking a non event for sun our best chance will be mon and tues, hopefully middlesbrough wont be to bad on tues because we have leeds at the riverside utb

[recklessabandon]

The GFS Op runs are on the mild side of the cluster, almost an outlier in truth, the mean and the control being much cooler/colder from the 9th/10th onwards in the 'reliable'. The ECM has the centre of the low slightly further south, but critically with a less 'flabby' low which keeps most of the north of England in the sub -5 uppers, this seems to be the pattern the BBC are following at the minute. I wouldnt be surprised to see an event similar to that of January where Consett got 14" and the coast got nothing.....

[Snowmaggedon]

cant believe we still dont no whats gunna happen and its only 48 hours away, and this low hasnt even formed yet, im thinking a non event for sun our best chance will be mon and tues, hopefully middlesbrough wont be to bad on tues because we have leeds at the riverside utb

I'd rather have snow than a Boro game at the moment, lost all of our momentum and I can see Leeds pouncing us if we played like we did against Ipswich

Latest updates from Met Office is still looking good for us

[Summer Sun]

cant believe we still dont no whats gunna happen and its only 48 hours away, and this low hasnt even formed yet, im thinking a non event for sun our best chance will be mon and tues, hopefully middlesbrough wont be to bad on tues because we have leeds at the riverside utb

The way we are playing at the moment I'd like to see snow and it get called off other wise I can see Leeds winning easy, we desperately need a good win tomorrow and need to score 3 or 4 goals only got 2 all year in the league.

Anyway back to the weather and the Met office have updated the warnings the system is now expected to stall hence why lowers levels could see over 10cm the Midlands, North wales and parts of southern Northern England could see the worst conditions

Issued at: 1121 on Fri 8 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0600 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Early rain over western Britain is expected to turn to snow as it spreads eastwards across much of England, Wales and southern Scotland during the course of Sunday. Early rain over Northern Ireland is also likely to turn to snow, whilst other parts of Scotland are affected by wintry showers. Accumulations at lower levels may exceed 10 cm over parts of the Midlands, Wales and Northern England. Over ground above 300 metres accumulations in excess of 20 cm are possible. The public should be aware of possible disruption, particularly to travel.

Issued at: 1122 on Fri 8 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Valid to: 1800 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Further spells of snow are expected to affect parts of the UK during Monday, particularly during the early hours and morning. There is then potential for further accumulations of 1 to 3 cm at lower levels and up to 10 cm over higher ground above 300 metres. Ice is then also increasingly likely become a hazard and the public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

Sundays warning is likely to be upgraded to an Amber warning within the next 24 to 30 hours

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gavin.