West Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 23z ------>

[Gustywind]

Conor, if anything the 12z nae is an upgrade as it forecasts a broader area of snow than the 6z so lasting longer. I still don't fully buy the solution but happy to be proved wrong!

[Barbmac]

Sun came out for awhile this afternoon, reached the dizzying height of 1.0^oC, some thawing taking place, huge icicles dropping off the eaves of houses. However still a lot of snow lying around, went for a walk on the Hills and thought I was in Switzerland! Temperature is dropping like a stone, already down to -2.2^oC.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Barbmac

[Staffordshire]

I’d rather trust the METO/NAE than the GFS, the latter had the February event last year as nothing more than transitory snow – for all areas.

totally agree with you ian, in my opinion the gfs has performed very poorly of late and has not picked up on alot this week, the nae has been very accurate and i have gained almost all my confidence in it again, just wait for tommorows runs nows

Temp shot up to 2 degrees today! Quite a thaw but still a fair bit of snow lying. I think we will see several cm's tomorrow evening/night before it turns to sleet/rain

yes quite a thhaw here, at least these icicles are going to carry on growing ay?

[Bishop Brennan]

And so, the end is near........

Folks, make the most of whatever snow you have on the ground at the moment, 'cos it ain't gonna be around for much longer

Current temp is -0.5, although we reached a high of 2.3 just after midday.

Bish

[Potent Gust]

Whatever happens tomorrow this has been one of the snowiest spells here in Tamworth since the 80s

[mr benn]

IF we get any snow tomorrow, am I right in thinking it wont even start till around 6pm ?

Be nice to be able to get away from work early afternoon and not have to be watching this site all morning , worrying

[Staffordshire]

IF we get any snow tomorrow, am I right in thinking it wont even start till around 6pm ?

Be nice to be able to get away from work early afternoon and not have to be watching this site all morning , worrying

yeah not till the evening benn

[Gord]

Doesn't matter now...had a great couple of weeks, don't care much for a snow to rain event after what I've seen here.

Time to remember that sound of rain pounding the bedroom windows in the morning again.

It's been a belter of a cold spell and deserves it's place on this forum as a reference in the future.

It's so good to get to the end of a cold spell feeling completely satisfied that it has delivered what it promised...and more!

Edited January 24, 2013 by Gord

[Staffordshire]

would urge caution that we're not running with 12zNAE's more extreme solution in current forecasts for tomorrow evening due to it being mistrusted: significant upstream imagery mismatches. Modified version tones-down the snow issue further south (albeit with varied uncertainty) and has been steered towards more realistic GM version of events and MOGREPS-R snow probs. No amendment of warnings however until things are re-assessed tomorrow AM.

Fergies post in mod thread, interesting

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snow started this time last week, still got a lot of snow around here, shame when it all ends, chance of leading edge snow briefly tomorrow, then massive thaw early Sat

back to normal then really from Sat, website will be shockingly quiet, no need then for regional threads, hope they are kept mind you

[azores92]

i hope it is rain. may be ok for some of you but i have to go from birmingham to norwich around half 7 tomorrow evening on the train. im praying to god it rains instead of snows as ive been looking forward to this weekend for sometime, and im pretty worried atm!

Edited January 24, 2013 by azores92

[Ian Brown]

Doesn't matter now...had a great couple of weeks, don't care much for a snow to rain event after what I've seen here.

Time to remember that sound of rain pounding the bedroom windows in the morning again.

It's been a belter of a cold spell and deserves it's place on this forum as a reference in the future.

It's so good to get to the end of a cold spell feeling completely satisfied that it has delivered what it promised...and more!

Yes it has, much more preferable for our region than a very cold largely dry spell that sees snow events around the peripheries of the UK.

i hope it is rain. may be ok for some of you but i have to go from birmingham to norwich around half 7 tomorrow evening on the train. im praying to god it rains instead of snows as ive been looking forward to this weekend for sometime, and im pretty worried atm!

The PPN will be chasing you ! But you should be OK as any snow will not be significant by the time you get to Norwich.

[azores92]

The PPN will be chasing you ! But you should be OK as any snow will not be significant by the time you get to Norwich.

well i get in at 11 so itll be mighty tight, hopefully it can delay by a few hours, that'd be ideal

[mr benn]

Cant you leave earlier azores ... be worth it to enjoy the journey

[I remember Atlantic 252]

breakdown likely to be a repeat of 29-30th Dec 05, dusting on evening of 29th, then quick thaw, while north and east had snowfest on 30th

[azores92]

Cant you leave earlier azores ... be worth it to enjoy the journey

easier said than done with pre booked train tickets :/ national rail would have none of it due to different pricing in tickets

[picog]

Beautiful sparkling snow in a lovely -6.4C. What a shame it has to end tomorrow.

[Costa Del Fal]

Marginal and fronts like this, mean rain or sleet here. Hope everyone enjoys the last fall, judging by the output it could be one of the last this winter (let's hope not)

Cmon you know better than not to make statements like that! Last year we had some snow falling even in May! Of course it was significant but plenty of time left yet.

[Ian Brown]

breakdown likely to be a repeat of 29-30th Dec 05, dusting on evening of 29th, then quick thaw, while north and east had snowfest on 30th

That was a shocker for the METO, they interrupted a programme on the BBC to put out a severe weather warning for snow for Central and Eastern areas when we could all see that the milder uppers had overtaken the PPN.

Every event is different though and I'm not seeing a direct repeat of that at this stage.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Ian Brown

[Essan]

Interesting that tomorrow, here, will likely be a repeat of Mon 14th - which kicked this so-called cold spell off: a spell of snow followed by a lot of rain.

[conor123]

Can't see even any snow on the leading edge to be fair, uppers WAY to mild and their even milder on the 18z!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Can't see even any snow on the leading edge to be fair, uppers WAY to mild and their even milder on the 18z!

27th Dec 2010 written all over it then, mild uppers came in ahead of the ppn

[conor123]

In fact the 18z is a tiny bit better than 12z in the end but still a touch to mild, by the time the main band arrives surface temps 1-3c generally, dewpoints 1-2c and 850hPa temps above -1 mean even if the temperature and dewpoint was below zero it could only be freezing rain, hopefully the 00z will trend things a bit further south.

[Staffordshire]

In fact the 18z is a tiny bit better than 12z in the end but still a touch to mild, by the time the main band arrives surface temps 1-3c generally, dewpoints 1-2c and 850hPa temps above -1 mean even if the temperature and dewpoint was below zero it could only be freezing rain, hopefully the 00z will trend things a bit further south.

your really relying on the gfs after the week its had?

[conor123]

your really relying on the gfs after the week its had?

Of course not im just saying as it's the latest to be updated, those expecting a blizzard fest will be bitterly dissapointed.

The NAE has even warmer upper temps of +2 850hPa!!

http://expert-images...012600_2418.gif

Anyway it's still been the best spell of weather snow wise in quite some time here, and of course there's still February to go aswell yet which hopefully has some more wintry treats up it's sleeve.

Edited January 24, 2013 by conor123