West Midlands Regional Discussion 22/01/13 23z ------>

[Shane Wheeldon]

Looking at the rain today radar it is breaking up!

[wizgti]

Is that band meant to be so narrow? or will it stall and intensify?

It's definitely narrowed this morning. Fingers crossed it intensifies back again.

[Wadey]

Weather outlook forcast looks good for tonight major snowfall

[mr benn]

BBC seem to be downgrading it, Only showing light snow for 6pm in Bromsgrove , quickly turning to rain.

[Eugene]

lol does it really matter if its been downgraded, it was always going to turn to rain anyway and we've had lots of snow and cold temps for the past few weeks, extremely happy with the prolonged cold spell and don't mind a near average spell ahead, had my fix of cold and snowy weather for a while

[Ian Ballinger]

It doesn't look like we would get much from that band anyway

[Bobby]

Is that band meant to be so narrow? or will it stall and intensify?

This isn't the main band, the main band is coming in during the evening and should intensify rapidly as it moves E. NMM for 6pm tonight

Starting to snow fairly heavily here BTW but don't think it'll last too long.

[conor123]

That first band isn't the main part it's a separate front ahead of it, precip will explode later when the two merge, uppers still look to warm here though it wouldn't take much of a last minute southward shift to put us back in the firing line.

[Paceyboy]

Some people really need to look at the model forecasts before downgrades /pessimism etc.

First band was expected to break up and will be reinforced later this afternoon and will rapidly intensify as it hits us.

You only have to look at the intensity of the precip over Ireland at this moment.

Ok, a quick checklist of models and outputs and precip accumulation amounts (mm) (multiply by roughly 8-10 for your snow amount in cm)

> GFS much more keen on a snow event than yesterday, 850hpa temps not great but no higher than 0c, except for say west of a line telford to worcester (10-15mm)

>NAE pushes the snowline further south west, so those in herefordshire and worcestershire have a greater chance. Also keeps it as snow the whole way through for central WM northeastwards. Dews no higher than 0 for 90% of the region. 00z = 8-12mm, 06z = 10-20mm

> UKMO better than yday with regards to 850temps. (10-15mm)

> ECMWF the pace setter with the best 850 temps and intense precip (~15mm)

> NMM simliar to GFS (both american i believe) but intense snow at some stage for us all. turning to rain west of Birmingham well hard to read into on meteociel (dont subsrcibe to netweather extra) but with gfs and nmm having same data feed they apparently overdo dew points according to snowking aka Kris Surtees (over on three counties discussion).

In summary, I would guess that the amber warning *COULD* be extended but not certain. I would say more likely snow all the way through east of Brimingham. Turning to sleet west of wolverhampton - evesham late evening/midnight.

Its going to be excited some people should see some large temporary totals before the big thaw sets in saturday/night!

Edited January 25, 2013 by Paceyboy

[kiddydaz]

Some people really need to look at the model forecasts before downgrades /pessimism etc.

First band was expected to break up and will be reinforced later this afternoon and will rapidly intensify as it hits us.

You only have to look at the intensity of the precip over Ireland at this moment.

Ok, a quick checklist of models and outputs and precip accumulation amounts (mm) (multiply by roughly 8-10 for your snow amount in cm)

> GFS much more keen on a snow event than yesterday, 850hpa temps not great but no higher than 0c, except for say west of a line telford to worcester (10-15mm)

>NAE pushes the snowline further south west, so those in herefordshire and worcestershire have a greater chance. Also keeps it as snow the whole way through for central WM northeastwards. Dews no higher than 0 for 90% of the region. 00z = 8-12mm, 06z = 10-20mm

> UKMO better than yday with regards to 850temps. (10-15mm)

> ECMWF the pace setter with the best 850 temps and intense precip (~15mm)

> NMM simliar to GFS (both american i believe) but intense snow at some stage for us all. turning to rain west of Birmingham well hard to read into on meteociel (dont subsrcibe to netweather extra) but american products havent been great with snow events over last fortnite.

In summary, I would guess that the amber warning *COULD* be extended but not certain. I would say more likely snow all the way through east of Brimingham. Turning to sleet west of wolverhampton - evesham late evening/midnight.

Its going to be excited some people should see some large temporary totals before the big thaw sets in saturday/night!

Great post. Well done.

[klippieboo]

Another upgrade on meto site for telford !

[Adzyy]

Light snow, heavy snow, heavy snow, sleet for me. Better than yesterday!

[ISAAC]

way too much doom and gloom on here

some surprises on the cards for today. a good deal of heavy snowfall for at least 3-6 hours across a large proportion of the region.

people are reading too much into the the 850's uppers. people tend to forget with a cold pool of air sitting for 2 weeks it wont be so simple to fight it off. we had snow in winter 2009/10 with uppers at 1c no different here.

The best snowfalls come from marginal set ups, sadly it will thaw over the weekend but who cares after the wonderful two weeks we have had.

enjoy it whilst it lasts.

PS: im yet to see proper heavy falling snow this winter. amazing to believe we got the 15cm last Friday from 12 hours of continuous light-moderate snow

Edited January 25, 2013 by ISAAC

[azores92]

still undecided with my train! tempted to risk it. my biggest concern is peterborough to norwich, leaving around half 9 this evening when the snow is meant to be heavy around that rea.

[ISAAC]

still undecided with my train! tempted to risk it. my biggest concern is peterborough to norwich, leaving around half 9 this evening when the snow is meant to be heavy around that rea.

i would personally go ahead with it. that's around the time when it will be peaking in the midlands, obviously its bout now casting and anything could happen but i don't think it will be bad enough by then. midnight would be tricky

[picog]

Snowing in east Wales, so hopefully on the border we will get snow rather than sleet or rain. Temp has risen a lot since this morning, and we are borderline freezing right now. Ground still frozen though from the -8.9C we had last night.

First snowflakes arriving at 11.26!

Edited January 25, 2013 by picog

[azores92]

i would personally go ahead with it. that's around the time when it will be peaking in the midlands, obviously its bout now casting and anything could happen but i don't think it will be bad enough by then. midnight would be tricky

yeah im getting the train, so im essentially chasing the front, its whether itll have accumulated enough in leicester by like half 8, or peterborough by half 9, for there to be issues.

[wednesburybaz]

just get on the bloody train!!!!

[ISAAC]

according to the radar something meant to be falling from the sky in stoke for the last 15 mins.

i see nothing.

EDIT: few flurries now falling!

Edited January 25, 2013 by ISAAC

[Soma]

just get on the bloody train!!!!

) Lol

[Clazzer]

according to the radar something meant to be falling from the sky in stoke for the last 15 mins.

i see nothing.

Strange, It has been here for 10 mins now

just get on the bloody train!!!!

) Lol

+1

[valiant]

according to the radar something meant to be falling from the sky in stoke for the last 15 mins.

i see nothing.

EDIT: few flurries now falling!

Schools already closing in Bucknall. Must have listened to the mass hysteria generated on local radio or is it POETS day??

Looking forward to the kids, who were sent home on health and safety grounds, snow-balling me and other motorists on the roads through Bentilee.

[SalopWatcher]

The lightest of light snow here...

[azores92]

just get on the bloody train!!!!

haha i like that attitude, motivation!

[Bishop Brennan]

just get on the bloody train!!!!

*snigger*

Bish