winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[damianslaw]

As I said yesterday, the position of Sunday's low won't be known for certain until very short timescales - probably Saturday evening. Think back to the events of 18 January, when at very short range there was a major correction in the position of the shortwave feature meaning the snow was reserved mainly for Wales, the BBC put us under an amber warning for snow, in the end we got a couple of flurries at best..

Looking at the models as a whole and upstream signals, it does look a cold outlook in the main, and there is a strong likelihood of height rises developing over Greenland as we move through the second part of the month - this could turn into quite a notably cold February.

[Captain Shortwave]

18z really is off on a tangent. Note early on (around t60) notice on all the other models a small pulse of cold air passes south through Scandinavia (this forms the Norwegian shortwave later on), not there, develops a larger shortwave later which pretty much does nothing. This run has pretty much handled every shortwave in north west Europe differently. Kind of interested to see what the consequences are now.

Of course to tease us it sets up a much stronger Scandi High

Edited February 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Long haul to mild]

Getting interesting at T120; Easterly setting up?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0

[Weathizard]

Wow, the size of the Scandi high in comparison early in the run. Not great again though for Midland south though snow wise!

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

LOOK at THIS , look at this , CMA 12z is pounding en pounding away with a easterly.

This is amazing even for me , i am perplex even this is virtueel.

This is a Major event by the CMA.

[Gowon]

Better run so far in regards to prolonging the cold.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

I'm a bit new to all of this, but I'm finding it hard to see how anyone can get excited about what any of the models are showing at the moment due to the lack of cold 850's.. or am I missing something? Surely any surface cold will get modified by the relatively warm sea?

[East Herts Snow]

Basically everything gets shunted slightly further North in the short term and even more further North in the mid term (folks in the North East will love the charts from +102 hours onwards with copious amounts of snowfall).

Anyway I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow if it shunts it back South into France missing the UK entirely!

The GFS is always so predictably unpredictable! ;-)

Edited February 7, 2013 by East Herts Snow

[Richie V]

Now it is getting realy interesting by CMA 12z , .

Look at this , we see a High 1040 HP , but look the color in there in the core of center.Uou see he is filling ist wit stabiel air massa.

Make him strong.He is getiiing yellow colloured litlle bit.

But tha wat , ANOTHER glide low dooming up.

Wat the hell is going on.

It seems to me a trilla from manilla by the weathermodels.

Stay tuned for more breaking weathermodel news , i think we are up to something very big like prof DR jennifer told us from the United States. Or it wil be nothing.

The battle with the polar bear or a dream , a hoax ?

Soon we will find out.

The Polar Bear is loading hin self up for the attack , the invasion of brittain , a army of Polar Bears is ready.

I want some of that paint thinner he's been sniffing!.... In all seriousness though, it pains me to say as a zonal loving freak, looks odds on now we're starring down the barrel of lashings of blocked snowmaggedon'ness (is that a word!).

[Matty M]

Initial low isn't best angled on the 18z for snow for Ireland Sunday but minor changes will bring back the risk.

Longer term again more signs the Scandy Block is trending to be stronger and stronger.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

If Cma 12z wil come out , than its worldnews.

[bluearmy]

I love the way posters become experts. Ask steve m or gp to tell you where that shortwave will track and what depth and they wont know. The pros are telling you they dont know. Yet we have posters on here saying that they know. Damian is right. Saturday lunchtime should cement the track.

[Allseasons-Si]

@ 117 that shortwave/low off scandi is not there on 18z compared to the 12z giving a cleaner easterly flow later on,i am liking this run so far

[NickR]

Agree poor run up to 96 hours.The track of that low not playing ball.

Not for here it's not.

[Richie V]

I love the way posters become experts. Ask steve m or gp to tell you where that shortwave will track and what depth and they wont know. The pros are telling you they dont know. Yet we have posters on here saying that they know. Damian is right. Saturday lunchtime should cement the track.

and your point is???? He's probily still more accurate than the GFS!

[Bristawl Si]

GFS has been all over the place lately - why anyone bothers to take notice of it is beyond me?

I'll certainly be following Meto updates over the coming days.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Weathizard]

Trough disruption going on here looks like energy going under at 144? Short term pain long term gain I think here, but still nothing resolved all stuff up in the air really on Sunday so longer term is pointless I guess!

[snowspotter]

I am somewhat bemused as to why people are getting all excited about what basically looks to me like a wet cold and raw few days of weather .Theres basically no cold uppers over us and anywhere south of at least the north midlands is just going to get rain? or am I missing something here?.

[Captain Shortwave]

T144, this run is only going one way from here..... Ryan Dutch Weatherman, please fill in the gaps

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?18

Edit forget it, I made an assumption that the gfs would actually send that shortwave south east, how silly of me haha

Edited February 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[snowking]

I think we will have to accept on this thread for the next few days, there will be a lot of IMBYism

To be honest, the best case scenario on a UK wide basis is for the LP further south, with a strong easterly flow on its northern flank. That way, we see the frontal snowfall Midlands southwards, followed by snow showers spreading from east to west further north....thats probably the dream scenario for the UK as a whole

Latest BBC graphics just tweeted by Ian F:

SK

Edited February 7, 2013 by snowking

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

T144, this run is only going one way from here..... Ryan Dutch Weatherman, please fill in the gaps

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?18

Ok wait , i usualy wait until GFS 18z is finished.

It is sometimes very strange runs the 18z from GFS. Moment.

I want finisch the CMA .

[Snowman.]

Slider maybe?

[Matty M]

Atlantic influence is almost non-existent.

We're are not far away from a rapid plunge into a prolonged cold spell.

The models have the momentum, we need to see it continue tomorrow.

[phil nw.]

The snowline will change from this range so it`s pointless making assumptions good or bad from one run and for any individual area yet.

I like the look of the bigger picture around N.Norway though(500hPa) pattern.That yellow area is growing(heights) up to T144hrs.

[LomondSnowstorm]

From an IMBY perspective, all the runs except the 6Z GFS were fine for convective snow here. Further south it does look iffy although hard to say whether you'd rather be in the high risk frontal zone or the safer easterly zone. Personally after a fairly prolonged battle with frontal snow for most of the winter with varied results I'd opt for the latter. Down the line, I struggle to see anything mild with blocking if anything becoming more of a feature as the month goes on. Whether this can work out well for us remains to be seen but there's easily enough time left for deep cold if we can get the uppers in place. That would take this winter from pretty good to very impressive for snow.