South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 8th February 2013>

[manutdmatt1986]

42nae shows rain for most

48 even worst

That would probably be light snow which, for some reason, the NAE always shows as blue (a bit confusing).

[Dexter29]

Lighten up. It's human nature to compare things. Whenever I get in the showers at the gym I see the other blokes with their sad resentful faces. It's just natural.

Haha.... You joker!

Made me laugh!

Sorry if I offended anyone about the America snowstorm. I just think its stupid to compare snow totals for our small Atlantic driven island. You can't compare!

Anyway here's the thread for the America snow

[Jan_Bromley]

I think it's interesting that SnowKing pointed out the potential for the Thames Estuary to get involved re the position of the low

[Snowman.]

42nae shows rain for most

48 even worst

That will change.

[alexisj9]

Can't believe we are still seeing changes and no real idea on where snow will fall @ +12 hrs!

I can cause the low still hasn't formed, once it has, the models and forcasters will have a better idea, until then it's pure guess work on probabilities.

[Snowman31]

I can cause the low still hasn't formed, once it has, the models and forcasters will have a better idea, until then it's pure guess work on probabilities.

when exactly is it predicted to form?

[nanu]

Can't believe we are still seeing changes and no real idea on where snow will fall @ +12 hrs!

def gonna be down to see whats falling scene when it happens... we know its gonna start as rain then turn to snow or we hope it will!!,, but you never know with this country of ours.

[Suburban Streamer]

12z nae animation:

Edited February 9, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[jright35]

Are the next runs at 6pm?

[Gary_R_Walker]

On the subject of these precipitation charts that people keep posting, if you look at any one of them, and then look at my location what do you see?

[Jan_Bromley]

Thanks SS

Is that further snowfall for Tues/Wed?

[Dexter29]

@Essexweather on twitter!

"Rain turning to sleet around Midday. Full snow by 6pm"

"5cm+ expected."

"Expect upgrade to Amber warning later today"

Bring it on!!!

These guys were near perfect during the last cold spell.

[Jan_Bromley]

On the subject of these precipitation charts that people keep posting, if you look at any one of them, and then look at my location what do you see?

You in the shower?

[Neilsouth]

We shall see, I'm not getting my hopes up

[Dexter29]

We shall see, I'm not getting my hopes up

Alex Deacon just said "snow could build up" focusing around Kent.

Fingers crossed :-)

[alexisj9]

We shall see, I'm not getting my hopes up

Me neither lol, did that on thursday to see fridays downgrade, will get excited when I see the white stuff fall not before..

[alexisj9]

when exactly is it predicted to form?

Sometime tonight on the cold front thats still in the atlantic at the moment.

[VillagePlank]

What seems to be happening is that a warm front wave moves away from the primary low pressure to form a break-away low. As that low moves out of the circulation of the original low it will draw air in the colder air from the North and rapidly develop until it becomes the significant feature of the UK weather charts. Remember the 850hPa heights are, effectively, the average of the air from the surface to some 1300m up; one only needs the cloud base to ground cold enough for snow. The established cold air in the East, and indeed, the land mass of the UK will act to help prevent eastward flow of the low pressure which is why we are seeing meridional corrections over the last few days.

Therefore given the complexities and the lack of sufficiently small scale modelling features, calling a forecast of where rain or snow might be, particularly with the tools available to us amateurs seems like an excercise in self-flagellation.

One other point of note, the occluding front behind the warm front can also cause a frontal wave that will further deepen the low pressure.

It really is a case of watching what happens tomorrow.

[cj114]

@Essexweather on twitter!

"Rain turning to sleet around Midday. Full snow by 6pm"

"5cm+ expected."

"Expect upgrade to Amber warning later today"

Bring it on!!!

These guys were near perfect during the last cold spell.

Blimey!!!

On the subject of the American storm. Hubby got stuck in NY about 20yrs ago. They sat on the flipping Plane for 10hrs! When they were finally allowed to get off, they were all flown home by Concorde!

Ah, those were the days. lol

[Bluebreezer54]

You in the shower?

What a horrible thought

Edited February 9, 2013 by Bluebreezer54

[manutdmatt1986]

@Essexweather on twitter!

"Rain turning to sleet around Midday. Full snow by 6pm"

"5cm+ expected."

"Expect upgrade to Amber warning later today"

Bring it on!!!

These guys were near perfect during the last cold spell.

I believe they get information from the Met Office, somehow

[Snowman31]

looks like a correction sw on the UKMO i think. what would that mean for us?

[Supercell 89]

Looks like tomorrow could be an interesting day for many I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction further south and west on the next updates.

[VillagePlank]

looks like a correction sw on the UKMO i think. what would that mean for us?

Meridional (ish) corrections from a nominally original quite zonal movement of the low pressure is because as the current lower than expected surface temperatures are plugged into the model the model resolves this as a blocking feature of the air to the East of the low - and the low has to go somewhere. Extrapolating this idea, and one might surmise that the colder air will stay longer in the East, and thus precipitation is more likely as snow.

However! the front(s) are due to stall: if the block is too strong, the precipitation might not even reach Kent. This is a close call: if the precipitation reaches us too fast, there's no block, and it will fall as rain. Essentially, we want it only just to reach us if we want to see snow and to stall over our heads.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Dexter29]

looks like a correction sw on the UKMO i think. what would that mean for us?

It's all relative at the moment: the GFS 12z has pushed things further north slightly!

But yes the UKMO update doesn't even have the bulk of the ppn reaching Kent!

Just proves things can and probably will change up until T0

Edited February 9, 2013 by Dexter29