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South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 8th February 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Afternoon high res models continue to roll out. Heres the 12km WRF output for 9pm, this represents the likely snowfall through tomorrow evening:

post-1038-0-38057800-1360425375_thumb.pn

Just awaiting the 4km resolution version

SK

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fatyido Explorer

fatyido

Posted
  • Location: St. Neots, south west cambs
  • Location: St. Neots, south west cambs
Posted

BBC forecast said very patchy tomorrow, some will miss out altogether. So who do we believe. Think we will just have to wait and see. Im not expecting any settling snow.Computer graphics show mostly rain. But u never know.....

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crazy_diamond Apprentice

crazy_diamond

Posted
  • Location: RM15, South Ockendon, Thurrock, Essex 21m asl
  • Location: RM15, South Ockendon, Thurrock, Essex 21m asl
Posted

Dearo law!!!! I now believe that there is such a thing as "too much" information. In the space of 24 hours we've done a complete circle!!

CD

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Jan_Bromley Enthusiast

Jan_Bromley

Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
Posted

Meridional (ish) corrections from a nominally original quite zonal movement of the low pressure is because as the current lower than expected surface temperatures are plugged into the model the model resolves this as a blocking feature of the air to the East of the low - and the low has to go somewhere. Extrapolating this idea, and one might surmise that the colder air will stay longer in the East, and thus precipitation is more likely as snow.

However! the front(s) are due to stall: if the block is too strong, the precipitation might not even reach Kent. This is a close call: if the precipitation reaches us too fast, there's no block, and it will fall as rain. Essentially, we want it only just to reach us if we want to see snow and to stall over our heads.

Thanks BW

The recipe really has to be spot on then. I understand much more now good.gif

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Afternoon high res models continue to roll out. Heres the 12km WRF output for 9pm, this represents the likely snowfall through tomorrow evening:

post-1038-0-38057800-1360425375_thumb.pn

Just awaiting the 4km resolution version

SK

Well lets hope it does catch us but considering how we missed out a couple of weeks ago this looks even more marginal.

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Time for straw clutching. Ahh the good old GFS that is pathetic when wrong but if it shows something like this then it enters God status.

gfs-2-30.png?12?12

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)

Latest NMM coming through smile.png Previous update was beautiful bit no one commented on it!

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

After a cold but nice day out in the Sussex countryside I can report cold drizzle in Eastbourne but 12 miles to the NW, it was snowing at lunchtime!!! yahoo.gif

I was at a higher elevation, but it still means the ingredients are here currently and could improve (or whimp out!!)

Edited by Coast
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Updated Met Office forecast now states that only Lowestoft and Beccles will get snow on Sunday.

Don't post something like this, people will start to believe it and point daggers at you! :o

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Updated Met Office forecast now states that only Lowestoft and Beccles will get snow on Sunday.

Ah, the Beccles Blaster and the Lowestoft Lasher?

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Right, off to do the mulled wine to warm up a bit, anyone for a glass or two? drinks.gif

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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted

My met office app is replacing my snow symbols for tomorrow with sleet ones ...... Anyone know how I stop it doing that? I'm sure it's broken!! ;)

They are pretty useless.

Last cold spell I was under a blizzard and yet it had mean in sleet the whole day!

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Those 'Met Office Updates' are the raw output from the UKMO model that we have just seen roll out. From taking a quick cross-section, it seems to be lighter snow but falling for longer.

Even more interesting is that the precipitation on Wednesday now looking more of a mixture of Rain/Sleet/Snow (and indeed mostly sleet/snow further N of our region) - could be a sign of the times again, with a couple of SWward trends over the past 24 hours for the midweek LP

SK

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Tamara Maestro

Tamara

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
Posted

Right, off to do the mulled wine to warm up a bit, anyone for a glass or two? drinks.gif

As long as it has the right concentrations of everything in it. You know, just to keep us warm and all thatwink.pngtongue.png

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

As long as it has the right concentrations of everything in it. You know, just to keep us warm and all thatwink.pngtongue.png

Oh yes, and a tot or two of dark rum to give it a kick!

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Tamara Maestro

Tamara

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
Posted

Oh yes, and a tot or two of dark rum to give it a kick!

wub.png

Weather related - a lot more will be needed when all this snow arrives later tomorrowcold.gif

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

As long as it has the right concentrations of everything in it. You know, just to keep us warm and all thatwink.pngtongue.png

100% Russian Standard sounds good enough for me, Tamara!

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