The Midlands Regional Discussion 2nd March 2013>

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM says rain anywhere S&W of about Leeds on Friday

[Staffordshire]

So its ukmo/gem v gfs/nmm v ecm/nae

[kmanmx]

So its ukmo/gem v gfs/nmm v ecm/nae

Personally, I have found UKMO to be most accurate, with GFS and NMM closely behind this winter. Infact, NMM was spectacularly close to the radar output at one point this winter.

[PolarWarsaw]

I think we can all safely say if we want accumulating snow in this part of the region, we need a good shift south. Here's hoping it comes.

[Staffordshire]

Infact, on the next frame the cold uppers spread south quicker, if this came to frutition we would see a rain to snow event

[Dancerwithwings]

So its ukmo/gem v gfs/nmm v ecm/nae

Far to much computing going on there, Gave me a headache looking at it

[PolarWarsaw]

Infact, on the next frame the cold uppers spread south quicker, if this came to frutition we would see a rain to snow event

Sadly that's what we don't want. Lots of heavy snow not sticking because of big puddles!

[shaky]

ECM says rain anywhere S&W of about Leeds on Friday

Not at all mate!!ecm shows snow from the north and east midlands northwards!!say north of birmingham!!remember your following the 0 degree line cos dewpoints will be low!!

[Serendipity]

itv weather showed the snow mainly for the north east of our region, everywhere else was very quickly rain.

[jukebox]

itv weather showed the snow mainly for the north east of our region, everywhere else was very quickly rain.

How the hell did you see this when Lucy Verasamy was presenting it ?

Every time I want to watch the weather and shes presenting it, I never actually look at the map just the warm fronts on the screen ;-):-P:-)

[mozza81]

Midlands today weather was ramping as usual.....north of brum staying as snow till Saturday and staff moorlands etc to get a dumping....

Will check models tomorrow for an update, quite finely balanced at the moment but certainly potential

[Shezale coventry]

not sure if anyone trusts the TWO and Net weather local forecast but i just put my location in (coventry) and it showed snow all day friday till mid sat? and very heavy snow?

[MKN]

The fact is this can be debated for another 24 hours or so but until you look outside as the precip first hits your not gonna know if your gonna get snow or not. The BBC usually make very little in regards to the areas that are marginal so don't expect much other than a blend of rain/snow on their graphics as they talk about the areas which are more certain to recieve snow. for my area id say any precip to remain as snow is at best 50/50 same for Birmingham, a slight shift south by tommorow and perhaps be more confident for alot of us.

[mackerel sky]

Hmm, travelling to York on Friday for a stag-do. Could be fun. These style of events have often worked out here (albeit I haven't got a March example), even with marginal uppers and limited elevation (~ 80m). Head 15 miles down the road to Bedford and there can be naff all.

[mackerel sky]

The fact is this can be debated for another 24 hours or so but until you look outside as the precip first hits your not gonna know if your gonna get snow or not. The BBC usually make very little in regards to the areas that are marginal so don't expect much other than a blend of rain/snow on their graphics as they talk about the areas which are more certain to recieve snow. for my area id say any precip to remain as snow is at best 50/50 same for Birmingham, a slight shift south by tommorow and perhaps be more confident for alot of us.

I would expect it to start off as rain almost anywhere on low ground, its the intensity that matters. Demonstrated on Sunday when that area of precipitation moved south-north. And that was way way more marginal than this - those in a N-S line running from Oxford through Northampton got a spell of heavy snow - on the edges it was rain or sleet.

[Essan]

I've seen nothing yet to suggest we'll get anything but rain here in Evesham. At the moment I'd expect the boundary to be north/east of Brum-Coventy with the higher ground of Shrops also in the firing line. South of there, forget it. For the Midlands, Derby, Staffs, Notts and Leics look best placed (but some places there could still miss out). By the time the colder air pushes the precipiation band back SW I expect it to be too light to amount to anything of consequence for us in the SW Midlands. We may get a few flakes to add to the handful earlier this month. Whatever, it looks like being a dreich, cold few days.

[Ian Brown]

ECM says rain anywhere S&W of about Leeds on Friday

Are you sure CC, sure too close for comfort but in this situation you only need to be below 0C upper air, other factors considered.

[Gord]

Wow, this is a close one for my location...

...that's really all I can say about it at this time!

[weirpig]

Wow, this is a close one for my location...

...that's really all I can say about it at this time!

yeah very close still expecting slight southward shift though so should be ok

[PolarWarsaw]

Ian F seems to think Brum north for snow, brum south for rain quite literally. Going to be one of those annoying phases I'd imagine, we could use just a 50 mile shunt south.

[TheIceManCometh]

not sure if anyone trusts the TWO and Net weather local forecast but i just put my location in (coventry) and it showed snow all day friday till mid sat? and very heavy snow?

I'm doubtful unless we get a shift Southwards in the next 24 hours. We'll see a few flakes but more likely to see puddles than snowmen....

[Aamar Farouq]

I must admit being in Birmingham right now is not a good feeling. aaahhhhh

[Dancerwithwings]

I must admit being in Birmingham right now is not a good feeling. aaahhhhh

All depends if you like snow or not, Im getting the feeling you don't!!.

[A.J]

Just for a laugh, I popped in my old Penkridge post code into the NW extra 16 day forecasts to get some idea of ppn totals between friday & saturday.......after viewing them I'm now reaching for the prozac.....50+mm and mainly snow looking at the parameters!....Why the bloody hell did I move 'darn sarf' a few months ago?!

[conor123]

Well the 18z will be rolling out in half an hour, nervewracking stuff! enough shift north and it could well be curtains for us, a slight shift south and were in buisness.