The Midlands Regional Discussion 2nd March 2013>

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Unbelievable, i have been completely dismissing this event, but now getting interested, Rebecca wood says significant snow fri/sat for NW Midlands

Ian, hope Nov 19th 1996, but reminds me more of 18th Jan 2013, still not excited just yet, need a few more runs yet

Ian, that's my favourite chart of all time! but a different setup? 18th Nov northerly,then low/shortwave that tracked WNW to ESE, so synoptically different

Edited March 20, 2013 by ihatetherain

[weirpig]

very good forecast on bbc national 10.30 snow line birmingham north espically to the west

[Ian Brown]

Unbelievable, i have been completely dismissing this event, but now getting interested, Rebecca wood says significant snow fri/sat for NW Midlands

Ian, hope Nov 19th 1996, but reminds me more of 18th Jan 2013, still not excited just yet, need a few more runs yet

Ian, that's my favourite chart of all time! but a different setup? 18th Nov northerly,then low/shortwave that tracked WNW to ESE, so synoptically different

Yes, for sure it is a different set-up this time - a better one.

[Terminal Moraine]

White over with snow again here after some lengthy but light showers this evening; only about half a centimetre though

Temperature is -0.8c

I'm expecting a bit more than this by Saturday morning!

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking very good now for most of the midlands.... nae,ukmo,and the gfs all have snow across most of the midlands for fri/sat,

Even the latest BBC forecast looks better !!! its more all less the same as the above chart with heavy snow hitting

the midlands,north wales,northwest england and northen ireland .

When i said it was more or less the same, just learn't from the mod thread that ian fergusson said,

the bbc tv graphics are a modified raw version of the NAE , Well you learn something every day!!!

Edited March 20, 2013 by dancer with wings

[conor123]

I'm hoping my pessimism is wrong though im staying overly cautious, i don't think my heart can take it if I go into ramp mode now and it ends up a cold rain fest.

The NAE is really quite special, here's hoping the 00z UKMO sticks to its guns and the GFS/ECM fall in line.

[weirpig]

I'm hoping my pessimism is wrong though im staying overly cautious, i don't think my heart can take it if I go into ramp mode now and it ends up a cold rain fest.

The NAE is really quite special, here's hoping the 00z UKMO sticks to its guns and the GFS/ECM fall in line.

as it stands and ill whisper this we are not in a bad postion shhh

[marksp]

double wow now,

12z ppn charts gave 56.3mm, but 18z has upgraded to 64.2mm

bring it on 4x4 ready, snow shovels back out of shed, looks like rugby training over weekend could be off.

really hope this one comes of now, also checked ECM, fantastic.

can not belive we are so close to epic snow event, just hope it reaches here and does not slide away south east to quickly.

[kmanmx]

It is certainly going to be an interesting event. Still seems to be considerable disagreement amongst models and peoples opinions on where the snow line will be. I think that goes a long way to prove how uncertain this whole thing is. It's going to become considerably clearer by tomorrow afternoon, by which point I think we'll be able to either celebrate the impending snowfest and write it off for most of us.

I am pretty optimistic though. I think if it comes off good, the vast majority of us should do well seeing anywhere from 5cm to 15cm depending on the usual killer combination of luck, height, and location.

edit:

Interesting to note that MetO have dropped the temperature again. Was around 1c in this area, now it's 0c for practically all of Friday.

Edited March 20, 2013 by kmanmx

[Wadey]

Would be nice to have to jump out the window to get out because the front door is blocked lol is that wishfull thinking ?

[Adzyy]

What's it looking like for Rugby? MetO pretty much suggests a sleetfest.

[mackerel sky]

This will be a Midlands event. Far SW of the region might miss out (though I don't consider Gloucestershire, or even SW Warks as parts of the Midlands - too far south for me - even people question whether north Northants is the Midlands, yet is as at least far north as central Birmingham and borders on Lincolnshire). I'll miss the worse by being up in York on Friday-Sunday. Or will I?!?!

[Gustywind]

Nae = midlands smowmageddan, whole mids also.

[shaky]

Nae = midlands smowmageddan, whole mids also.

So is the ukmo gm!!

[Gustywind]

Yes just seen it, west mids up to Lancashire round to n Ireland in sweet spot. East mids excellent also, especially Friday night/sat.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Brutal 72 hour easterly to follow also on GFS and UKMO, astonishing for time of year.

[Terminal Moraine]

Latest GFS and NMM precipitation totals show around 39 mm for the southern Peak District between midnight Friday and midday Saturday, all of it as snow. That could translate to something between 35 and 50 cm of snow depending on how low the temperature is and how powdery the snow; all driven on by an easterly gale too.

It looks as if I'll have to put on the 'snow bib' to catch the drool if subsequent runs continue to show the same

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Nae = midlands smowmageddan, whole mids also.

METO slow to catch up or just being cautious??

[Nigel Langton]

The metogram for Birmingham shows snow starting midnight and lasting till Sunday apart from some sleet during Friday. Link below

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/meteogram.png

Coventry simular

www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Coventry/meteogram.png

Notts

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Nottingham/meteogram.png

Warwick a little more rain/sleet but still mainly snow

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Warwick/hour_by_hour.html

Matt Hugo really rates the metogram or has done this winter.

Still very marginal but hopefully we could be on verge of major snow.

[syed2878]

hi peeps. Its getting intresting for tomorrow's event. What's the 0z runs saying so far? Thanks. Interesting comments by ian f on the mod thread regarding next week.

[Gustywind]

Avfc,

UKMO stunning, lots of snow for whole of mids, best place if I had a choice would be peak district, got to be looking at over a foot of snow there.

GFS excellent though milder uppers get to brum on Friday day, retreating back south by evening though - snow to rain/sleet to snow event, brum south.

NAe same as UKMO.

[Supacell]

Alex Deakin this morning really ramping up the snow possibilities for my area tomorrow and on the Met Office weather app we have heavy snow in Belper from 3am tomorrow morning right up until the end of Saturday - that is 45 hours of heavy snow! Surely if this happens there would be some huge accumulations.

Alex reckons 30-40cm of snow over the hills of the East Midlands. With 60mph winds and snow of this magnitude, the Peak District could be an interesting place to be over the next 3 days.

[Gustywind]

Peak district very nasty fri through to Sunday, well over a foot of snow there, parts could be cut off.

[Staffordshire]

I genuinelly cant believe this

[Serendipity]

wish I lived further North!