The Midlands Regional Discussion 2nd March 2013>

[Staffordshire]

Yeah thanks, but I understand that. What I meant was, I don't understand why you think it's a poor output. But I took another look and can see now. I wasn't paying much attention before, too busy at work!

Although it's higher res i've seen it get it wrong in terms of the precipitation being snow/rain on more than one occasion recently.

oh right sorry, yes ive been sneaking on when i have a break, yes i seem to find it is poor at marginal events, but when it comes to more 'sure snow' it copes better, take jan 18th for example.

[MKN]

Gfs has been more accurate than the nae this winter on wether we see rain or snow. Personally i would go by bbc/gfs.

[Staffordshire]

I'd be pretty excited if I lived in Shrops, Staffs, Derbs in respect to this region. Further S it's looking marginal. Birmingham N looks in with a fighting chance of 5-10cm of snowfall though. I'd expect to see a last minute movement S over the next 24 hours.

hi cc, id say 5cm maybe a little low? or was that in reference to the more marginal spots? Id say 10-15cm will be possible N mids/south northern england

Also ukmo looks better

Edited March 20, 2013 by Staffordshire

[conor123]

My gosh SHOCKED to see things so much further north than last night, I thought the charts would show it sliding along the channel by now :lol:!

I expect it will still end up further south than currently shown which leaves us in a potentially very good position for something major!

[shaky]

hi cc, id say 5cm maybe a little low? or was that in reference to the more marginal spots? Id say 10-15cm will be possible N mids/south northern england

Also ukmo looks better

Ukmo shows a pounding for the midlands!

[Staffordshire]

Ukmo shows a pounding for the midlands!

i think that totals arent as good as gfs however much less marginal which means more of us would see snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Staffordshire.......I think that Staffs, Shrops are the counties around the cut off point at the minute. I was expecting a further shift S on the 12zs but that hasn't materialised. I'm even nervous for here in Cheshire!

[Staffordshire]

Staffordshire.......I think that Staffs, Shrops are the counties around the cut off point at the minute. I was expecting a further shift S on the 12zs but that hasn't materialised. I'm even nervous for here in Cheshire!

hmm interesting view, is that just by gfs/nae? ukmo+gem showing midlands well placed

[Ryan05]

Nottingham isn't looking too bad for Fridays event

[Cheshire Freeze]

hmm interesting view, is that just by gfs/nae? ukmo+gem showing midlands well placed

Even with the GEM the uppers are dicey.

Uppers of -1 are extremely marginal

Combine this with it being the middle of the day, Friday daytime could see snow turning to rain and sleet for the majority of the Midlands (here included). Though the closer to that -2 isotherm the better.

UKMO has the -2 line slightly further S

Edited March 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[Staffordshire]

Even with the GEM the uppers are dicey.

Uppers of -1 are extremely marginal

Combine this with it being the middle of the day, Friday daytime could see snow turning to rain and sleet for the majority of the Midlands (here included). Though the closer to that -2 isotherm the better.

yes but there are other factors and -1 is still sufficient, dps are good and intensity will do us favours, im still sitting on the fence and dont want to seem bias towards the snowy option, you have more knowledge than me so i respect your view. however we know how much it has shifted over past 24 hours so it can still move and we tend to see this closer to the deadline hour just like the channel low not too long ago. As i said earlier tommorows 12zs are key but even then it will come down to the radar and looking to the skies

[marksp]

wow 12z ppn charts show a big upgrade.

56.3mm here from friday to sunday, even if there are unreliable still good to see.

like I said earlier could be digging over the weekend or sending for lifeboats.

[Shezale coventry]

looking good for the people north of our region here in coventry its looking like it will be very wet with alot of rain!

[shaky]

I think ukmo charts for precipitation are u big upgrade on this mornings!!in my opinion i think the midlands is now well placed for an almighty snowstorm!!ðŸ˜

[PolarWarsaw]

I think us in Staffs need a shift 75-100 miles south to be confident of any accumulations. If things move 50 miles north, we get rain quickly. As it stands it's very marginal, for here it'l be sleety snow - rain, every mile further north you go will have snow lasting for longer and accumulating. We could use a good shift southwards.

[Staffordshire]

I really do think though all this uncertainity just makes it so much more fun!

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking good now for a wide area over the midlands very impressive,but also whats impressive is the temps

the GFS HI RES puts most of the midlands around 0.c or below from from thurs evening till weds lunchtime,

potential ice days ahead.

[Adzyy]

Massive upgrade here. All snow on Friday morning through to Saturday evening going by the MetO!

[shaky]

Looking good now for a wide area over the midlands very impressive,but also whats impressive is the temps

the GFS HI RES puts most of the midlands around 0.c or below from from thurs evening till weds lunchtime,

potential ice days ahead.

Ive taken a look at the temperature forecast from the ukmo and temps are at below 0 or bang on 0 from tomorrow night right up to saturday!!

[mr benn]

Looking good now for a wide area over the midlands very impressive,but also whats impressive is the temps

the GFS HI RES puts most of the midlands around 0.c or below from from thurs evening till weds lunchtime,

potential ice days ahead.

I dont get why ice is good - dont you have to drive ?

[Staffordshire]

I dont get why ice is good - dont you have to drive ?

an ice day is when the temps stays below or at 0c

[Dancerwithwings]

Ive taken a look at the temperature forecast from the ukmo and temps are at below 0 or bang on 0 from tomorrow night right up to saturday!!

Different models have different ideas "gfs vs ukmo" but the ukmo sounds more likely to me.

And to Mr Benn i do drive and im with you on that one regarding getting behind the wheel !!!!!

i was just making a point on how cold it could get over the next few days.

Edited March 20, 2013 by dancer with wings

[conor123]

Hmmmm ECM has heavy rain for us Friday, praying for those last minute southerly shifts now!

[kmanmx]

I really do think though all this uncertainity just makes it so much more fun!

Is it ever not uncertain in the Midlands ?

If the event comes off, I kind of hope the timing changes. If MetO is right, heavy snow between 3am and 9am on Friday. So not only will I be in bed when it starts, it'll make getting to work pretty difficult too.

Edited March 20, 2013 by kmanmx

[PolarWarsaw]

Hmmmm ECM has heavy rain for us Friday, praying for those last minute southerly shifts now!

Comes as no surprise in all honesty, the BBC graphics have looked decidedly dodgy and most models show a short period of transient sleet/snow quickly to rain south of the VERY NORTH and NORTH EAST of the region. We need a 75-100 shift south, which looks unlikely but could happen.