South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[anything-but]

From Ian f....

"About an hour ago, Ops Centre notified us of the following GM modifications; i.e. prior to full EC suite availability:

" T+48/60: Moved main precipitation band in the south 60 n miles further north (T+48), supported by NAE (modified) and Arpege, and 80 n miles further NW supported by GFS and Arpege.

T+72: Moved main low over continent 100 n miles further east towards Arpege solution, with GFS giving more modest support.

T+84: No modifications necessary, GFS and Arpege provide support for GM solution."

What it means? Ask the next man along,i havn`t the foggiest!

[Fatboypirate]

Still nice and warm here at 7.7 , dropping very slowly, DP 6.3, still feels like spring in Eastbourne tonight!

[Stuie]

Looks like there is still precip to me.

http://www.rain-alarm.com/?from=chrome2

[lottiekent]

Nw forecasts 25 cm Sunday-Tuesday

That won't happen

But wish it would

Interestingly every snow event has happened sun/mon and I have been off work on leave on the Monday

I'm off on Monday too!

I'm off Monday too! Hoping for a decent amount for us..fingers crossed

[ukpaul]

From Ian f....

"About an hour ago, Ops Centre notified us of the following GM modifications; i.e. prior to full EC suite availability:

" T+48/60: Moved main precipitation band in the south 60 n miles further north (T+48), supported by NAE (modified) and Arpege, and 80 n miles further NW supported by GFS and Arpege.

T+72: Moved main low over continent 100 n miles further east towards Arpege solution, with GFS giving more modest support.

T+84: No modifications necessary, GFS and Arpege provide support for GM solution."

What it means? Ask the next man along,i havn`t the foggiest!

Everything further north than suggested by the raw UKMO model, the low moving eastwards inthrough Tuesday and not stalling and filling out. By the time we get to Wednesday no modifications necessary as the system moves away.

60 to 80 miles is a quite considerable movement by the way.

Edited March 9, 2013 by ukpaul

[Sussex Jules]

From Ian f....

"About an hour ago, Ops Centre notified us of the following GM modifications; i.e. prior to full EC suite availability:

" T+48/60: Moved main precipitation band in the south 60 n miles further north (T+48), supported by NAE (modified) and Arpege, and 80 n miles further NW supported by GFS and Arpege.

T+72: Moved main low over continent 100 n miles further east towards Arpege solution, with GFS giving more modest support.

T+84: No modifications necessary, GFS and Arpege provide support for GM solution."

What it means? Ask the next man along,i havn`t the foggiest!

It's like a different language!

[anything-but]

Everything further north than suggested by the raw UKMO model, the low moving eastwards inthrough Tuesday and not stalling and filling out. By the time we get to Wednesday no modifications necessary as the system moves away.

60 to 80 miles is a quite considerable movement by the way.

So,more chance of a better ammount,but not hanging around for as long as progged?

[chionomaniac]

Temp 6.9ºC, dewpoint 5.5ºC here

[Methuselah]

About 2 cm so far...Only another 28 to go!

[kate1]

From Ian f....

"About an hour ago, Ops Centre notified us of the following GM modifications; i.e. prior to full EC suite availability:

" T+48/60: Moved main precipitation band in the south 60 n miles further north (T+48), supported by NAE (modified) and Arpege, and 80 n miles further NW supported by GFS and Arpege.

T+72: Moved main low over continent 100 n miles further east towards Arpege solution, with GFS giving more modest support.

T+84: No modifications necessary, GFS and Arpege provide support for GM solution."

So... Is this good news for us, better news for the SW? Or have I got that completely wrong?

What it means? Ask the next man along,i havn`t the foggiest!

[Stuie]

Temp 6.9ºC, dewpoint 5.5ºC here

Well currently 1.6 and 1.2 here. Cold is working it`s way in.

[Summer of 76]

From the radar it looks like a small movement south of the precipitation over Peterborough so maybe see something (in the dark) within the next two hours

[alexisj9]

triple streamer anyone

Seen that on three different types of these in exactly the same place, I think it looks good for now.

[Summer of 76]

About 2 cm so far...Only another 28 to go!

Now is that for this cold spell or the last as I reckon you have another 58 cm if you put both together

[Guest bjaykent]

From Ian f....

"About an hour ago, Ops Centre notified us of the following GM modifications; i.e. prior to full EC suite availability:

" T+48/60: Moved main precipitation band in the south 60 n miles further north (T+48), supported by NAE (modified) and Arpege, and 80 n miles further NW supported by GFS and Arpege.

T+72: Moved main low over continent 100 n miles further east towards Arpege solution, with GFS giving more modest support.

T+84: No modifications necessary, GFS and Arpege provide support for GM solution."

What it means? Ask the next man along,i havn`t the foggiest!

Sounds promising, 60 miles quite a bit adjustment at this stage and will mean more areas to north will be in the snow zone whilst others to the south will most likely receive larger ppn totals but movement east suggests as the GFS showed earlier that the low won't be stalling over south-east which will obviously impact on total ppn amounts as well. So swings and roundabouts but at least not an adjustment south into France!l

[MBaines]

Been raining steadily all afternoon temps now dropped from 4.6c during the afternoon to 1.7c now and the rain has started to turn wintry. I would expect it to turn to snow as it increases in intensity.

[JennyJane1]

About 2 cm so far...Only another 28 to go!

settled here now as well but not 2cm more like a dusting

[Stuie]

Come on temps, not far to go!

[Floatylight]

Just downing first glass of recently opened bottle of red. A choice this evening of joining the family for Ant and Dec and The Cube or following this thread. Tricky one

Doing it all at the same time here

[Chris101]

After a brief period where the front moved North of Ipswich, it has now started moving South and we have a light snow and rain mix here. Temp 2.0c DP 0.0c

[anything-but]

Another copy/paste from Mr F....

"I've just now seen the MOGREPS-G and EC snow distribution probability mapped updates. The former continues to have a slightly more northern bias for Monday's snow in S: highest probs of 1cm plus are confined to S of line joining Lyme Bay across to Hants and up via London to S Essex.

EC squeezed further south still: 2-5cm contour just grazes S coastal counties (Hants-Sussex), with smaller amounts in other S districts on coastal fringes.

In effect, the yellow warning area looks pretty good still at this juncture. Next modified NAE update arriving by 2120hrs."

Well,seems at least we`re getting *something* rather than nothing.

[Eskimo]

Band now just 10 miles NE of Cambridge City centre, it isn't breaking up and won't do until the moisture feed is cut off.

[Hughsey]

Rain Alarm says that precipitation, having sat 12-13 miles away for a couple of hours, is now just 6 miles away. Temperatures slowly dropping, hopefully going to be some wintry precipitation soon.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Hughsey

[alexisj9]

Another copy/paste from Mr F....

"I've just now seen the MOGREPS-G and EC snow distribution probability mapped updates. The former continues to have a slightly more northern bias for Monday's snow in S: highest probs of 1cm plus are confined to S of line joining Lyme Bay across to Hants and up via London to S Essex.

EC squeezed further south still: 2-5cm contour just grazes S coastal counties (Hants-Sussex), with smaller amounts in other S districts on coastal fringes.

In effect, the yellow warning area looks pretty good still at this juncture. Next modified NAE update arriving by 2120hrs."

Well,seems at least we`re getting *something* rather than nothing.

I thought when the warning first came out yesterday that north of the line would get snow but it didn't warent a warning, So to me not much has changed except the low won't stall.

[lottiekent]

Doing it all at the same time here

Snap...glass of wine, Ant & Dec on tv and NW on tablet. Who says you can't have it all? He he