South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[Tamara]

I'm not sure that there might be much of a window for shower activity from the North Sea for our region after the low departs through France/Belgium and into Germany. The GFS solution to have the fractionally more northerly route and then to anchor the low closer over the nearby continent for just a little longer is the pivotal one to getting a) some frontal snow into our region and then B) holding the wind long enough with a strong feed from the North East off the North Sea afterwards so that snow shower streamers have a chance to get going. Looking at the majority of the modelling this evening, I'm not sure we are going to sustain a convective flow for long enough if the low takes a more progressive southerly solution. Time will of course tell

[VillagePlank]

This one seems particularly difficult to resolve properly down to a will it snow within, say, fifty miles of a point. The reason why this is, is the polar jet stream,

As you can see the PFJ is skimming over Spain, Africa, and heading off east. Normally, I would expect the low pressure associated with this pattern to be more tightly coupled with the faster jet stream winds; it's not however. This can imply one of two things - the low is modelled too far North (and East), or the low is decaying.

I would, then, rather suggest that this GFS run isn't to be trusted too much. Something is amiss somewhere, I feel ....

Edited March 9, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[alexisj9]

have to be a quick one ( i should be so lucky)

updated fax

the low looks the same as earlier at present

however the front is stuck over the south of the river

i also note the 510 dam air very close to us

i cannot believe the unstable air in the north sea would not

send showers our way

more later

Does it get stuck only just to far south for se london?

Looks very good for the area under warning.

[Tamara]

have to be a quick one ( i should be so lucky)

updated fax

the low looks the same as earlier at present

however the front is stuck over the south of the river

i also note the 510 dam air very close to us

i cannot believe the unstable air in the north sea would not

send showers our way

more later

The latest UKMO and NAE would have that front a little further south into the channel I think

[Summer of 76]

For those who may miss any snow, quickly before it gets dark look here

http://www.norfolklive.org/camera/bressingham.html

[VillagePlank]

have to be a quick one ( i should be so lucky)

updated fax

the low looks the same as earlier at present

however the front is stuck over the south of the river

i also note the 510 dam air very close to us

i cannot believe the unstable air in the north sea would not

send showers our way

more later

The thing is, John, that the air over the North Sea looks particularly stable over the period,

I will look at it in more detail, but, at the moment, to me, it looks as if the low is modelled too far North (and East), and the North Sea looks too stable to produce convective showers. That only leaves convergence zones, and local forcing features such as the Weald, North and South Downs, for instance.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Arid Acle]

After 3 weeks of Arid Acle well and truly living up to its name, it's now been raining non-stop for over 24 hours. That rain has been turning more to sleet and wet snow over the last hour and a half. Now laying very slushily on cars, grass and roofs

[yamkin]

have to be a quick one ( i should be so lucky)

updated fax

the low looks the same as earlier at present

however the front is stuck over the south of the river

i also note the 510 dam air very close to us

i cannot believe the unstable air in the north sea would not

send showers our way

more later

Hi JP, Convection off the North Sea once the brisk cold wind picks up will give SE snow showers during Monday/Tuesday.

[john pike]

The thing is, John, that the air over the North Sea looks particularly stable over the period,

I will look at it in more detail, but, at the moment, to me, it looks as if the low is modelled too far North (and East), and the North Sea looks too stable to produce convective showers. That only leaves convergence zones, and local forcing features such as the Weald, North and South Downs, for instance.

hi boar

problem we have here is we have to look at different models

to compare the fax

seeing 510 air that close to me would set off unstable air in itself

also the fax shown had the weather front to our south on the earlier runs

that was updated at 5 oclock so whatever we view now will be different at present

[ukpaul]

BOM, a ringer for the GFS with a halfway house solution.

Just ECM to come now (and whenever the new NASA model updates)

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Moderate snow here, now starting to settle on roofs.

[Tamara]

The updated METO fax does look as though it has the front slightly further north of its parent model

[Methuselah]

For those who may miss any snow, quickly before it gets dark look here

http://www.norfolkli...ressingham.html

That's exactly what we have here, Chris...

[anything-but]

Wonder if i have a curry tonight i can help create some unstable air...........

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

back later

have a look as cannot post individual at present

to me this low is not further south but your guess is a good as mine at present

monday night looks interesting

Wonder if i have a curry tonight i can help create some unstable air...........

think i will join you and have a few glasses of something strong

if i get drunk i reckon i might be able to work these out

[BLUNT]

Been looking at the other board everybody is talking about dull and cloudy conditions over the next few days, nothing really about Snow, low diving well South otherwise cold and cloudy and people talking about warm temps at the end of the week, springlike,

[Floatylight]

Good evening all.having sweet and sour tonight.

I think that's gonna be rather much like this thread soon.))

Some will get lucky some won't lol

[john pike]

Been looking at the other board everybody is talking about dull and cloudy conditions over the next few days, nothing really about Snow, low diving well South otherwise cold and cloudy and people talking about warm temps at the end of the week, springlike,

hi blunt

bet they aint commenting on snow up in anglia at present

i would look at location of people saying this if you venture in the mad thread

we have potential over the next few days

it may stay dry but truth is noone is sure at present

watch your radar from tomorrow afternoon is the best advice

[Summer of 76]

That's exactly what we have here, Chris...

Send it over here

[WillinGlossop]

Meatball n spag bol tonight...... Its going to snow yey! Looking forward to next 48-72hrs.....

[alexisj9]

Been looking at the other board everybody is talking about dull and cloudy conditions over the next few days, nothing really about Snow, low diving well South otherwise cold and cloudy and people talking about warm temps at the end of the week, springlike,

Even if the low does drive well south I'm sure we will get some showers, the type you get when hot and cold air colide, as that is exactly what is modled to happen.

[Tamara]

ECM looks slightly deeper and fractionally further north at t48 compared to UKMO

Edited March 9, 2013 by Tamara Road

[john pike]

take your pick again

however if i was going to note something

it looks like it may get a bit warmer around 20th onwards

downside it looks wet

[abruzzi spur]

The updated METO fax does look as though it has the front slightly further north of its parent model

Hi Tamara, that could tie in with the graphics shown on the BBC news channel forecast at 5:58 pm that showed snow up to London on Monday, heavier the further south one is. Interesting times!

AS

[throwoff]

When did this happen. I leave netweather for a couple of weeks and the snow comes back! ?!?