South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[yamkin]

ill wave to you Tuesday as doubt amounts of snow will affect our travel plans unfortunately

London will struggle with a few cm's of snow, so it will be best to check before venturing out

[ChartViewer]

In terms of the UKMO, it models the ppn some way south of the advisories issued today if early Tuesday is anything to go by.

Yes as i mentioned their forecasts, updares are much better than any public chart/ model...we cannot see the short range ppn models they see that are not for Public viewing........

Edited March 9, 2013 by ChartViewer

[JennyJane1]

i'm quite near and its snowing in the air

it surprises me didn't think it got cold enough don't think it will settle as very light here and everything is soaking wet from rain

[Timbo]

Just been informed that its snowing in Lowestoft. Can anyone confirm. It looks close on the radar.,

yes snowing very heavy in Lowestoft..settling nicely all surfaces are white..

Current tept now at 0.4 with a dew point of -1.3..

[john pike]

In terms of the UKMO, it models the ppn some way south of the advisories issued today if ealy Tuesday is anything to go by

hi tamara

what will happen i think the met office will scutinise this and we may

get a better idea off the fax charts

i have learn nearly all precipitation graphs are not great and are guides only

its really tricky this as a 100 mile shift either way would make a massive forecast change

glad i havent got to do this one in a professional sense

[Keraunic]

Someone posted that a few pages back on here. So could be.

Duh! Yes just noticed that post. And snow in Naaaarich but nowt in The Swich as yet.

[Tamara]

The two extremes -

NAE

COAMPS

Take your pick.....

COAMPS is notoriously good at handling channel lows

[kold weather]

As mad as it sounds, the NAE is actually better than the GFS for most of us away from the extreme SE, the NAE suggests a Thames Streamer set-up, which with uppers as cold as they suggests probably some decent convection coming in.

IF the frontal zone is close but not quite there, its going to inhibit any decent convection and we'll get stuck with murk and snizzly stuff, whilst France gets hammered and places north of the wash get 10-15cms fairly widely from potent snow shower streams.

So either hit us, or shoot well south, those are the two options, either one will do for 75% of the people in this area.

Edited March 9, 2013 by kold weather

[Sussex Jules]

hi tamara

what will happen i think the met office will scutinise this and we may

get a better idea off the fax charts

i have learn nearly all precipitation graphs are not great and are guides only

its really tricky this as a 100 mile shift either way would make a massive forecast change

glad i havent got to do this one in a professional sense

Lol yea just the whole of South East and East Anglian thread hanging on every word!!

[john pike]

looks to me like an upgrade on that fax. if the cold front makes slower progress, it should allow the precipitation to get further north, putting more of the region in the snow zone.

just to add another point, ian fergusson said that the models struggle with precip forecasts outside of frontal events. that means they can't really predict convective snowfall or dare i say it, streamers. some of us could get a few surprises in the next couple of days......

hi mate

same thoughts with that

also troughs that get added to the fax charts do not show up on any other models

waiting new ones now

[JennyJane1]

yes snowing very heavy in Lowestoft..settling nicely all surfaces are white..

Current tept now at 0.4 with a dew point of -1.3..

didn't you have rain as well this morning? not too wet for the snow to settle? not settling here

[john pike]

Lol yea just the whole of South East and East Anglian thread hanging on every word!!

no pressure then

[Tamara]

hi tamara

what will happen i think the met office will scutinise this and we may

get a better idea off the fax charts

i have learn nearly all precipitation graphs are not great and are guides only

its really tricky this as a 100 mile shift either way would make a massive forecast change

glad i havent got to do this one in a professional sense

I totally agree with you - that is why based on what we can see I suggested that the inside thoughts of the METO might be interesting (along with the fax charts of course) to get a more reliable picture. Based on the limits of what we can see - it is a fine line position, but both UKMO and NAE look too far south to me, at this stage.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Tamara Road

[kold weather]

Also just worth noting if these lows are to error in terms of where they are, nearly every time they are further SOUTH than expected, I suspect that will likely be the end result with this one as well.

Its ok, the streamers should more than compensate should they set-up.

[ukpaul]

JMA similar to such as GEM up to Monday lunchtime then drifts towards a UKMO-ish southern fringe event through Tuesday. Another option on the table.

[ChartViewer]

Spring round the corner..nice warm up

[tight isobar]

Also just worth noting if these lows are to error in terms of where they are, nearly every time they are further SOUTH than expected, I suspect that will likely be the end result with this one as well.

Its ok, the streamers should more than compensate should they set-up.

Also just worth noting if these lows are to error in terms of where they are, nearly every time they are further SOUTH than expected, I suspect that will likely be the end result with this one as well.

Its ok, the streamers should more than compensate should they set-up.

yep, as again à lot lately firm focus upon incoming Channel LPS, convective,anom from easterly quarter should not be under estim, in this particular outbreak.

[Heretic]

Northern France is looking to take a battering! Probably over a foot of snow. Wish that'd move north just a little...

[yamkin]

Spring round the corner..nice warm up

Long way off, so let's see how this unfolds in the coming days

[Heisenberg]

I dont think the areas north are going to get much by the looks of things but Im happy for the ones that will. Not jel at all (yea right)

[ChartViewer]

Long way off, so let's see how this unfolds in the coming days

To be honest after this cold snap ill be ready for a warm spring, lovely summer....Stormy Autumn and a huge cold winter...any charts to go with that ..How far does the cfs go out

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Very wet snow here in south norfolk, little bit on the top of my car,but that's it,, so far... plenty of ppn to head south tonite for e/a, let's hope it doesn't fizzle out.

[jimbo36]

Best to check with Meto and Fergie at this range rather than the model output. Meto will look at the models and modify them with their own input to hopefully make the picture more accurate.

Exeter will be having a headache fine tuning this event, so probs best to wait until update tomorrow late morning and hopefully some input on here from Fergie who has been spot on this winter with all the short range forecasts for us

Edited March 9, 2013 by jimbo36

[yamkin]

Northern France is looking to take a battering! Probably over a foot of snow. Wish that'd move north just a little...

MetO boff's are carefully looking at this Channel Low as it may edge further North into S/SE areas. Convection off the North Sea once the brisk cold wind picks up will give SE snow showers during Monday/Tuesday.

[john pike]

have to be a quick one ( i should be so lucky)

updated fax

the low looks the same as earlier at present

however the front is stuck over the south of the river

i also note the 510 dam air very close to us

i cannot believe the unstable air in the north sea would not

send showers our way

more later