South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[tight isobar]

The heat island effect doesn't help for London. Just checking the 06z runs and GFS and NAVGEM push things further north again compared to the previous run, NOGAPS doesn't but, hey, that's NOGAPS and it's being dumped next week. It's the UKMO mainly that doesn't have things up through Surrey and into the London fringes, this will obviously have an effect on what people think might happen.

fully agree ,However get the system onboard ie further north and as again, the london heat bubblecould well aid any intensification of precip.....

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/forecastloop

Peachy ...... 36 hrs of snow in se.....

[Ruthie]

Hi all from west London. Dank grey day, not mild,but not cold either. Yet ! Daffodils have sprung up in the field here almost overnight. Also noticed alot more small birds around today scouting on ground for food, they weren't around last weekend. Long tail tits, robins and a dunnock. Maybe they know something about the upcoming weather.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Snow for London & South East England :

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey & West Sussex

A spell of sleet and snow is expected, starting in the early hours of Monday morning in southwest England, and affecting southern England more widely by the end of the morning. Snow will be accompanied by a strong easterly wind which will accentuate the very cold feel. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow could occur quite widely over southern counties, with a risk of 5-10 cm over Dartmoor.

The public are advised to be aware of the risk of localised disruption to travel.

Issued at:

1136 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid from:

0100 on Mon 11 Mar 2013

Valid to:

2355 on Mon 11 Mar 2013

A low pressure system moving up from the Atlantic will come up against the influx of cold air from the north, bringing persistent sleet and snow. At the same time winds will increase, with gusts to 50 MPH on coasts and hills. At this stage there is uncertainty about how far north precipitation will push, and also the extent to which snow will settle on the recently warmed ground. This warning will be updated again during Sunday morning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=807DE0A6-D26C-646D-2BFA-49C73F3670AD_3_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&fcTime=1362960000

[WillinGlossop]

http://weatherspark.com/

17 odd cm faversham on this one

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/Me13

30cm on this one

Edited March 9, 2013 by willinkent44

[JennyJane1]

cold rain falling persistently here but not what you could call freezing

[Tamara]

Hi all from west London. Dank grey day, not mild,but not cold either. Yet ! Daffodils have sprung up in the field here almost overnight. Also noticed alot more small birds around today scouting on ground for food, they weren't around last weekend. Long tail tits, robins and a dunnock. Maybe they know something about the upcoming weather.

I've got some wild bird food in a cupboard next to the food I keep for Shadow my cat. Still worth maybe giving the birds a bite to eat over the coming days with the expected weather as it is. It may be March and they will soon have (relatively) warmer days ahead (in seasonal terms) but I am sure that the snow as exciting as it may be to some of us, is an unwelcome interruption to their preparations for Spring

[lawrenk]

Please let the latest NW Forecast be right as I have 56 mm of snow to fall from Sunday night through Tuesday. Even if only 25% of this settles I'll be happy. Not too much to ask is it?

[Weathizard]

This is my optimistic prediction if the GFS 06z is correct.

The pink areas I have coloured are were there could be significant convection before/after and if the precipitation does reach these spots I can see it being pepped up by the Estuary.

PS: there area around London only extends to northwards extent of our region I know the map probably looks its predicting for further north!

Edited March 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[80sWeather]

Hi all from west London. Dank grey day, not mild,but not cold either. Yet ! Daffodils have sprung up in the field here almost overnight. Also noticed alot more small birds around today scouting on ground for food, they weren't around last weekend. Long tail tits, robins and a dunnock. Maybe they know something about the upcoming weather.

There is a mouse living in our guinea pig cage in the garden, noticed it this morning running about like crazy,guinea pig not bothered the slightest, maybe the mouse has an eye on the forecast too!

[WillinGlossop]

This is my optimistic prediction if the GFS 06z is correct.

The pink areas I have coloured are were there could be significant convection before/after and if the precipitation does reach these spots I can see it being pepped up by the Estuary.

PS: there area around London only extends to northwards extent of our region I know the map probably looks its predicting for further north!

I would say 20-30cm below the red line......

[Tamara]

There is a mouse living in our guinea pig cage in the garden, noticed it this morning running about like crazy,guinea pig not bothered the slightest, maybe the mouse has an eye on the forecast too!

Aw - thats cute!

[pinball wizard]

There is a mouse living in our guinea pig cage in the garden, noticed it this morning running about like crazy,guinea pig not bothered the slightest, maybe the mouse has an eye on the forecast too!

you wanna get rid of that, mice carry diseases which can kill piggies!

[Methuselah]

A very small amount of sleet mixed in with the rain, now...

[Ruthie]

I've got some wild bird food in a cupboard next to the food I keep for Shadow my cat. Still worth maybe giving the birds a bite to eat over the coming days with the expected weather as it is. It may be March and they will soon have (relatively) warmer days ahead (in seasonal terms) but I am sure that the snow as exciting as it may be to some of us, is an unwelcome interruption to their preparations for Spring

I've just filled our feeders here and scattered some seed down for the ones that don't go to feeders. Just saw a flock, if they are called that, of around 6 or so long tail tits. One spent most of this morn knocking the window, seeing his own reflection and thinking it a mate!!

[pinball wizard]

A very small amount of sleet mixed in with the rain, now...

I just went outside and noticed the same, would have thought that within the next 2 hours there will be wet flakes mixed in and then if the ppn is still about i'd expect snow by nightfall.

[lottiekent]

This is my optimistic prediction if the GFS 06z is correct.

The pink areas I have coloured are were there could be significant convection before/after and if the precipitation does reach these spots I can see it being pepped up by the Estuary.

PS: there area around London only extends to northwards extent of our region I know the map probably looks its predicting for further north!

Best map ever

[Timbo]

I just went outside and noticed the same, would have thought that within the next 2 hours there will be wet flakes mixed in and then if the ppn is still about i'd expect snow by nightfall.

Afternoon all

The rain at lowestoft has also now turned to sleet.. will it turn to heavy snow??

[lottiekent]

A very small amount of sleet mixed in with the rain, now...

What temperature do you have there? Still 7c here with a DP of 6c

[Methuselah]

What temperature do you have there? Still 7c here with a DP of 6c

Depending on dew-point, usually somewhere in the region of 4C...

[snowrye]

30cm I'll eat my hat and then some if we get that

[80sWeather]

you wanna get rid of that, mice carry diseases which can kill piggies!

Yes, just read up on your point,and they can contaminate pigs food with their urine. Shall be removing Mr mouse today, thank you for bringing this to my attention

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Snow for London & South East England :

East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Medway, Surrey, West Sussex & Brighton and Hove

Yellow Alert of Snow for East of England :

Essex, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

There is a risk that snow will continue to fall across parts of southeast England on Tuesday morning, bringing the potential for further accumulations of 3 to 5 cm of snow. The snow will be accompanied by northeasterly strong winds, making it feel very cold.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Issued at:

1147 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid from:

0005 on Tue 12 Mar 2013

Valid to:

0900 on Tue 12 Mar 2013

As the low pressure causing the sleet and snow moves away into France, the band of snow will probably move northwards into Essex and parts of Greater London for a while, although the northward extent remains uncertain at this stage. This Alert will be updated again during Sunday morning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=2C54AF4D-C731-AA73-1295-4EC7C016EDAF_1_EE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1363046400

[IDO]

EssexWeather

Met Office have modified snow warnings for tonight, Essex should now escape seeing any accumulating snowfall in next 24 hrs.

09/03/2013 13:07

Looks like the initial frontal snow edges east on its southern journey and misses most of our region. Sunday UKMO snow risk:

[Tom Jarvis]

We may need to split the thread up like last time. Which I hope doesn't happen